Flaneur

We've experienced a week where the price moved slightly up and down, ultimately ending up in the same place. The decline that came with Elon and Trump's standoff was quickly recovered, and the strong structure continues to persist. Although ETH still appears somewhat weaker compared to BTC, Bitcoin continues to carry and dominate the market. We've entered a week where US inflation data will be announced and the G7 summit will begin. Since this will be one of the most critical data points for interest rate cuts, I believe its impact will be significant.
Bitcoin
After making its weekly opening, it closed slightly above its weekly opening with small movements. The price is also trading slightly above its monthly opening. In the movement experienced so far, it appears much less strong compared to ETH.

This week's implied volatility is similar to last week, ranging between 91k and 121k. I think the price harbors a desire to move upward, and I believe these 2 weeks will be quite positive. For this reason, I've taken upward positions.

The decline continues in the volatility index DVOL, but overall, contract purchases are also quite noticeably high. DVOL dropping this much suggests we might see sharp movements soon. In June 13 contracts, the Max Pain Price is 106k, and although call contracts are slightly more dominant, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.95, it can't be said to have a very bullish appearance.

Ethereum
Similar to BTC but with more movement. Weekly closes have been closing in doji candle form for 4 weeks. Here too, similar to BTC trying to close above 102k, it's trying to hold above 2500.

This week's implied volatility range is again in the 2000-3000 range. ETH, which has been making range movements in approximately a 20% area for about 40 days, won't make sense to expect sharp movements without breaking the 2800 area.

In ETH this week, the put/call ratio of 0.80 looks somewhat bullish. With the abundance of contract purchases, we can say sharp volatility is approaching in ETH as well. However, due to its weaker appearance, looking at short ETH and long BTC might be more logical. The max pain level is 2550.

ETHBTC
There isn't much change here, but since mid-May, we see a squeeze with lower tops and higher lows in every movement. It might be more logical to wait for breakouts before taking positions. Otherwise, I don't think there's a bearish outlook as long as it doesn't stay below the 0.021 zone.

#CryptoCharts101 #TradingMistakes101 #USChinaTradeTalks #TrumpTariffs #BigTechStablecoin

Greetings after a long break. Alongside the new design changes, I'm also adding some new features. We bid farewell to May with a positive move for crypto. June holds important developments, along with data and events that will shape the future of crypto. We are also entering a period where geopolitical developments will be intense. Now, let's see what lies ahead.
On June 5th, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision, with a 250 basis point cut likely expected. This will be followed by the G7 Leaders' Summit from June 15-17, and immediately after, the FED interest rate decision on the 18th. Apart from these, it's likely we'll experience a volatile month due to developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, peace talks, and tariffs.

I've also added daily average volatilities to the historical volatility table. I'll be using daily and weekly volatilities for my shorter-term trades. Additionally, I consider weekly and monthly data when establishing positions at the beginning of the month. I will use the daily average volatility data for leveraged trades and shorter-term option positions I take before significant news or data releases.
Bitcoin
Although BTC made a new ATH in May, we saw a more stagnant period, followed by an 8% sell-off.
For June, the monthly implied volatility is 35%, and weekly is 14.3%. This suggests a range between $68k and $141k. We've observed a decrease in BTC's volatility in recent months. On a weekly basis, with 14.3% implied volatility, we can define the price range as $90k-$121k.

The fact that the price isn't decisively moving up or down, combined with market, economic, and geopolitical uncertainties, increases the expectation of sharp bidirectional movements. However, I don't believe a top structure has formed yet, and I think any potential downward movement will remain a correction. I anticipate $98k and $93k will act as important support levels. I will take long positions if the price reaches these regions. Frankly, a direct upward move would raise some questions for me, but I would still add a small position.

For the end-of-June contracts, the max pain price is $100k, and the Put/Call Ratio is 0.60, painting a very bullish picture. With the recent decrease in volatility, DVOL has dropped to 42% today. The Funding Rate has been at 0 for a while; if it turns negative during any potential correction, that would be one of the biggest bullish signals for me. For the June 6th weekly contract, the max pain price is $105k, and the Put/Call Ratio is 0.75, indicating a somewhat bullish sentiment. It's also worth noting that there's significant volume in the June contracts.

Ethereum
ETH, which closed May with 58% volatility, has been moving sideways for the past three weeks after its rise in the first week. This accumulation below resistance is making those who have lost hope anxious, similar to the situation with BTC. This raises the question: if the price corrects downwards, will we see panic selling, or will it surge sharply without any correction, leaving behind those who missed the initial rise and are waiting to buy?
The monthly average implied volatility for June is 40%, corresponding to the $1500-$3550 region. The weekly average implied volatility is 20%, equating to the $2030-$3050 range. We've seen a significant increase in ETH's volatility over recent months, and it continues to rise.

In April, despite a very sharp drop, ETH quickly recovered, saving its candle structure from a bearish outlook. In May, it sent a clear "I'm not dead yet" message with a strong rally. While many who were pessimistic about altcoins have regained hope, those who missed the buying opportunity are now waiting for a correction. I'm inclined to be a buyer on pullbacks to the $2350 region and below. The $2100-$2200 zone, in particular, is a very good area for positioning. I plan to position for the end of June and July with incremental buys on pullbacks to this area. The important points on my charts have been fixed for months. One of them is the red line 2500 and the blue box in the 2800-2900 area. As I mentioned before, it is not right to dream too much before these areas are completely broken. We still have not seen a good weekly close above 2500. For this reason, I will start positioning upwards in the correction that will come with the new month. The 2300-2100 areas will be my buy points for upward positions. This is my general plan.

For June contracts, the market has a very bullish expectation with a 0.48 Put/Call Ratio, and there's active, high-volume buying of end-of-June contracts. The max pain price for the end of June is $2200, and for June 6th, it's $2600. The P/C Ratio for the June 6th contract is 0.62, again showing a bullish picture.

ETH/BTC
I believe it would be better for the price to form a clear bottom structure and then rise in a V-shape. While a move back towards the 0.021 region wouldn't be surprising, I don't expect it to make a new low. In my opinion, it shouldn't dip below the 0.021 region. My conviction that the uptrend in this pair will truly begin will be solidified if it stays above 0.026. 0.033 is an important resistance, and after sustaining above it, I think the 0.04 region will be our main resistance. Sharp rises are likely above this region. But first things first.

Conclusion
Historically, Bitcoin has closed June in the red 6 times and in the green 6 times. ETH, on the other hand, has only closed green 3 times and red 6 times, often with sharp sell-offs. Currently, Q2 data shows $BTC has provided a 26% return, and $ETH 39%. Let's see how we'll close this month with the upcoming developments.
#TradingTypes101 #MarketPullback #FTXRefunds #SaylorBTCPurchase #PCEMarketWatch

Unfortunately, I have not been able to publish monthly and weekly data for a while. For this reason, let's take a general look at May and see the situation.
The price has been neither going up nor down for a few weeks and indecision is increasing. The fact that BTC has been at the peak of ETH under significant resistance leaves people in the middle between a sharp correction or an increase. I do not see any signs that this region is the top yet. The fact that the classic ladder structure continues right now and the price does not willingly go up or down is very bullish and does not show a peak structure. Such a statement is not true when no market structure is broken and there is no HTF weakness. Yes, the markets are uncertain due to policy inflation and interest rates, but I also think that the uncertainty here should not be considered the market.

Although the movement in BTC is not as strong as ETH, it still looks good. However, due to both the beginning of the month and the weakness in the recent structures, I think it will make a correction and the price may pull back to the 98k region. If you take a broader view of the chart and look at it with a weekly time frame, you can see that the last candlestick structures are not very good and there could be a potential double top. I think that the price will start to rise with the rumors of double tops and the increase in panic when it reaches the 98k or maybe 91k region next week. Of course, we can go from here without any correction and call it a classic BTC bull and look back, but this scenario seems more logical to me since uncertainty is so effective and monetary policies are still not loosening. If we see dovish statements in the FED interest rate decision and the discourses before it in 19 days, I think we will have very good months ahead of us.

Monthly implied volatility in ETH seemed to be 70% due to the 2017 pump. If we did not add the data from that date, implied volatility could be expected as 50%. ETH both gave people hope again and gained some strength with a move of up to 58%. We see that we have seen a bottom formation in ETHBTC and maybe there may be another bottom attempt. Frankly, I do not expect this movement very much due to the V-shaped image, but I keep it among the possibilities.

The monthly image is quite bullish, it seems to have a weekly image that is prone to a bit of correction. The important points on my charts have been fixed for months. One of them is the red line 2500 and the blue box in the 2800-2900 area. As I mentioned before, it is not right to dream too much before these areas are completely broken. We still have not seen a good weekly close above 2500. For this reason, I will start positioning upwards in the correction that will come with the new month. The 2480-2300-2100 areas will be my buy points for upward positions. This is my general plan.

In summary, although the possibility of the price moving sharply in both directions is taken into account, it does not change the fact that our direction is up. For this reason, if you are in between, it may make sense to establish two-way positions. Yes, it will be a little more costly, but you will reduce your risk and the possibility of missing the move. Positioning in a two-way direction between 8-10% on a monthly basis may make sense.
Good days to all of you in the new month

February closed in red for the third time in BTC's history and the second time in ETH's history. We've left behind a February that ended with sharp declines, making many investors uneasy with its movements at the top. As we enter March, when quarters will close, important news and data await us. During these days of high-impact data on prices, numerous factors are at play, including war, tariffs, economic conditions, and inflation. Expectations have increased with Trump's announcement of important news tomorrow. Additionally, the White House will host a crypto summit on March 7.

Bitcoin
Last week's decline broke the narrow price movement within the month. Although monthly implied volatility remained lower, recent movements have increased volatility expectations. Despite breaking below the important 90k support, it climbed back above with March's opening.

Looking at March data, we can expect monthly average volatility of 33% and weekly of 15%. This suggests a price range from the monthly opening at 84k between 56k and 112k, and from today's weekly opening between 80k and 109k. The 88k region can be monitored as a pivot.

While $11 billion worth of contracts were purchased for March 28, the Max Pain price is 85k. The Put/Call Ratio at 0.45 indicates quite bullish expectations. The Funding Fee has also turned positive again.

Ethereum
ETH experienced a 36% drop after the monthly opening, followed by range movement between 2500-2850. With last week's decline, the 2075 region again served as support. It approached implied volatility with 38% monthly volatility.

March presents a handicap. In March 2017, its rise from $15 to $55 created 250% volatility. This is significant enough to mislead our data. Therefore, I'll share and graph the ratios excluding 2017's data. After this adjustment, monthly average volatility is 66%, weekly approximately 22%. Excluding 2017, the monthly average becomes 40%, weekly 17.5. Monthly 66% Implied volatility range shows $750-3700, 40% shows $1340-3140, and weekly shows 1965-3160. The 2550 region can be monitored as a pivot.

For March 28, $2 billion worth of contracts were purchased, with Max Pain price at $2800. The Put/Call Ratio at 0.34 indicates very bullish expectations. DVOL shows a 68% increase.

ETHBTC
Though testing the 0.3 region, it continues its downward trend. I believe we shouldn't see closures below the expanding channel. Perhaps the movement providing ETH's high volatility could come through ETHBTC chart movements. We might see much sharper movements with price moving up or down. I consider 0.0195 and 0.03 as important support and resistance areas that should work during sharp movements.

#USCryptoReserve #MarketRebound #BTCRebundsBack #CMEsolanaFutures

Last week, the market saw Ethereum attempting to break the 2850 mark while Bitcoin moved like a stable coin. The market faced two sell-offs due to stagflation and ETH hack news. Despite this week being relatively quiet in terms of news, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data on Friday will be significant. Additionally, Trump will be speaking today at 10 PM.
Bitcoin
After its weekly opening, Bitcoin closed slightly above its weekly opening with minor movements. Although it attempted to reach 100k, it faced a sharp sell-off from there. The price is still below the monthly opening. The Volatility Index for BTC has reached its lowest level since July 2024. If DVOL remains below 42, we could see significant price movements.

This week's implied volatility is similar to last week, ranging between 82k and 110k. It opened with a sharp sell-off and is currently down by 2.5%. It continues to maintain its wick structure, and volatility is decreasing. If it approaches the 89-91k range, I will consider long positions. However, my primary target is for the price to first reach the 104 area.

The Max Pain level has dropped to a price of 99k. Although call contracts are prevalent, the Put/Call Ratio at 0.75 does not indicate a bullish outlook. Due to the monthly contract closure, contracts worth 5 billion will be closing.

Ethereum
Ethereum has shown similar movements to BTC but with more volatility. It attempted to break the 2850 mark three times but failed. Although it closed above its weekly opening, there was a 6% sell-off today. Similarly, ETH is hovering just above the trend support, making it illogical to buy or sell without a clear support or resistance breakout.

There wasn't much different movement from last week. It would be wise not to buy altcoins without seeing a clear close above the 2850-2900 range. This week's implied volatility range has remained unchanged at 2280-3350. Instead of trading within the 2650-2850 price range, it would be more prudent to wait for breakouts. I am looking for the 2300 area below and the 3200 area above.

This week, we may see much higher volatility in ETH compared to BTC. The total Open Interest for the February 28 contracts is 515k contracts, valued at 1.4 billion dollars. The Max Pain level has dropped to 3000, and while the Put/Call Ratio has risen from 0.51 to 0.56, indicating a bullish market expectation, we are seeing an increase in put contracts. We can say that volatility is approaching in ETH.

ETHBTC
There isn't much change here, but if we are to see upward reactions, we need to see some indicators for a bottom formation. If we see movement above the 0.03 price, I believe it could progress much faster. Otherwise, my thought continues that it will drop to the 0.022 area.

#BTCDipOrRebound #InfiniHacked #SaylorBTCPurchase #ETHPriceWatch #SECStaking

In BTC, we’ve seen about a 5% movement, while ETH showed around 10% movement, with the price making limited upward and downward movements before heading back towards its opening. I don’t think it makes much sense to establish heavy positions without breaking through the identified support and resistance levels.
Bitcoin
After making its weekly opening, BTC closed slightly below that opening with small movements. The price is still trading below the monthly opening. So far, it appears much weaker compared to ETH in this movement.

This week’s implied volatility is similar to last week, ranging between 82k and 110k. Although the price made a weak upward movement, it fell sharply below the weekly opening. It continues to maintain its wick structure, and volatility is decreasing.

There is also a decline in the volatility index (DVOL), and overall contract purchases are quite low. We may not see much movement on the BTC side this week. While call contracts are prevalent, the Put/Call Ratio at 0.75 does not indicate a bullish outlook.

Ethereum
ETH has shown more movement compared to BTC, although it closed slightly above its weekly opening, still 19% below the monthly opening. Similarly, ETH is hovering just above the trend support, making it unwise to buy or sell without a clear breakout of support or resistance. We saw this in today’s movement as well.

Today, ETH rose strongly to around 2850, but a sell-off occurred alongside BTC. It would be prudent not to make purchases in altcoins without seeing a clear close above the 2850-2900 region. Holding a swing short without seeing movement below the trend increases the likelihood of getting stopped out, as seen in today’s action. This week’s implied volatility range is between 2150 and 3170.

This week, we may see much higher volatility in $ETH compared to $BTC . We are witnessing significant contract purchases this week and at the end of the month, which we haven’t seen in previous weeks. Two days ago, total contract purchases were around 15k, while this week, the call contract volume has reached 100k. The put contract volume is around 45k. The end-of-month put/call ratio has dropped to 0.51, appearing quite bullish. We can say that increased volatility is approaching for ETH.

ETHBTC
There aren’t many variables here, but if we are to see upward reactions, we need to observe some indicators for a bottom formation. If we see movement above the 0.03 price, I believe it could progress much faster. Otherwise, my thought that it will go lower to the 0.022 region still stands.

#GeopoliticalImpactOnBTC #AIandStablecoins #CryptoLovePoems #BinanceAlphaAlert #ETHBigMove

🔥 My Volatility Trade Setup Before CPI Data! 🔥
Hey traders! With CPI data around the corner, I’m setting up a volatility trade. Here’s my plan:
💰 Feb 15: 2450 Call (14.5$) + 2800 Put (14.5$)
Total cost: 29$.

📅 Why February 15?
This week, including Friday, is packed with major news. CPI might spark volatility, but if the expected move doesn’t hit, other news or delayed market reactions could still bring action later.
💡 Why these contracts?
My goal is to profit from contract value. Since the expiry is farther out, contracts are pricier. I picked strikes far from the spot price but close to potential volatility. If volume stays low, I won’t wait for exercise—contract value is key.
⚖️ Why options over leverage?
Price could spike up then crash; I don’t want to get stopped out by a wick. With options, my max risk is 29$, but upside is limitless.
🚨 What’s the risk?
The biggest risk is flat price action, causing my contracts to lose value over time. But my loss is capped at 29$, while gains depend on how far the price moves or how much the contracts appreciate.
I hope I have shown you why I prefer options and what perspective it has.
What’s your take on CPI and the next market move? Drop your thoughts below! 💬
#CPIvsCrypto #BTCStateReserves #BTCvsInflation #BinanceAlphaAlert #ETH

Greetings from Inflation Week
We've entered a week where additional volatility is expected. A busy week awaits us. We can say this inflation data will influence upcoming interest rate decisions. Throughout the week, there will be important news and data. You can see the details below. FTX announced that repayments will begin on February 18th with a 20.5% interest rate. Additionally, Trump announced he will sign Executive Orders at 1 PM ET.
Weekly Important Events and News (GMT +3):
Monday 19:15 - ECB President Lagarde speech
Tuesday 15:15 - BoE Governor Bailey Speaking - 18:00 Fed's Chair Powell testifies
Wednesday 16:30 - US CPI / Core CPI YoY & MoM
Thursday 16:30 - US PPI & US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday 13:00 - Eurozone GDP YoY/QoQ Flash Estimate - 17:15 US Industrial Production MoM
*Various ECB Speakers throughout the week
Bitcoin
BTC, with February's weekly implied volatility of 14.9%, realized an 11.3% movement. We generally saw continuous up and down price movement. Currently testing last week's opening price. We can assume there's a waiting period, likely due to news expectations. While February's implied volatility is 34.2%, we've seen a 10.9% movement in 10 days.

We can define this week's implied volatility range between 82k and 111k. Due to price compression, the upcoming movement is likely to be rapid. I don't think the price will drop much below 94k. I expect the next movement to be towards the 113-115k region and am positioning accordingly.

Max Pain level has retreated to 100k since last week. We see many orders increasing in this region. While it might act as resistance, I believe the main resistance is at 104k. I think 104k and 108k will be our primary resistance levels. Therefore, 107k contracts until month-end look very reasonable from these levels.

Ethereum
Although ETH quickly recovered after this week's sharp decline, movements have slowed but remain more volatile than BTC. It closed weekly volatility above implied at 28.1%. ETH, which filled 75% of its monthly 48.5% implied volatility in the first week, might close this way without going below 2100 or above monthly opening.

With weekly implied volatility at 19.1%, we can base our price range between 2125 and 3125. While price slowdown after sharp movement is normal, we can say ETH typically increases its movement after such periods. I think we might see another movement towards the 2300 region, followed by an upward price direction. The blue box region (2800-2850) might work as our first resistance. My expected main resistance is at 3200 and the Monthly opening level.

We see the max pain price has retreated here as well. However, unlike BTC, the Put/Call Ratio has decreased to 0.53. This is a positive development, showing the market expects more upside. Although Funding Rate is negative, this suggests the decline might continue a bit longer but ultimately is a positive development. Against my upward position in BTC, I have downward contracts in ETH. I plan to close when price pulls back to 2300 and take upward positions.

ETHBTC
Although holding above 0.026 support, I expect another movement towards the lower wick. It needs to make a movement towards 0.025 and get a good reaction. We need to see a bottom structure from these levels now, as going lower would bring the 0.022 region.

#BTCvsInflation #LTC&XRPETFsNext? #BTCNextATH? #cpi #BitcoinWhaleMove

Greetings after a long break. We've entered a week of sharp sells following the month's close. While BTC didn't pull back significantly, we witnessed drops of up to 30% in ETH and altcoins. I had previously shared charts on Twitter indicating these potential sells. February holds significant developments and events that will shape crypto's future. Let's examine what lies ahead. The inflation data coming on February 12th is crucial as it will determine future interest rate cuts and monetary policies. Additionally, FTX repayments will begin at the end of February, which are highly price-impactful news.

Bitcoin
January's volatility remained below expectations at 21.7%, showing mostly range-bound movement. Towards month-end, it pulled the market down with declines. BTC, which fell 10% from its monthly opening, currently trades 3% above it. The reaction has been quite strong, with the daily candle collecting all the decline and turning upward. Today's and tomorrow's daily closes will be significant.

For February, monthly implied volatility is 34.2%, while weekly is 14.92%. This range appears to be between 67k and 137k. We've observed decreased volatility in BTC over recent months. Weekly implied volatility of 14.92% suggests a price range of 83k-112k.

The price moved 6.3% down from the monthly opening, then 5% up from the weekly opening, resulting in 11.3% volatility. We can expect to spend this week within this price range. However, I believe price will move upward during pullbacks. I'm expecting an increase up to at least 113-118k region. Not this week certainly, but I anticipate such movement within this month

Ethereum
ETH closed January with 24.7% volatility, showing high 21% volatility in the final week. Price movement has been quite heavy and significantly underperforming against Bitcoin. During the recent decline, they experienced 15-30% drops along with other altcoins. Currently trading 17% below monthly opening and 4.5% below weekly opening.

February's monthly implied volatility average is 48.5%, corresponding to the 1700-4900 range. Weekly implied volatility average is 19.1%, matching the 2300-3400 range. Indeed, with a 35.8% drop from monthly opening and 26.2% from weekly opening, most of these volatilities have been consumed. In fact, more than January's total volatility.

Despite the sharp decline, ETH appears to have recovered quickly to a certain extent, saving the candle structure from a bearish appearance. I favor being a buyer on pullbacks below 2600. Especially the 2300-2500 region is quite good for positioning. Since I didn't expect such rapid recovery, I was waiting for purchases. I'll wait for purchases during pullbacks to this region.

ETHBTC
With the sharp decline, we also saw drops in the ETHBTC chart. It had been showing price movements around 0.03 for a long time, signaling potential decline with lower peaks. With staying below 0.03, it sharply dropped to 0.023 region and showed quick recovery again. While another movement toward those regions wouldn't be surprising, I don't expect new lows and think we should look for bottom structure now. After staying above 0.033, I expect sharp rises to begin toward and above the 0.04 region.

Bitcoin has only closed red twice in February, in 2014 and 2020. ETH has only closed red in 2018. What are your thoughts on how this month will progress?
#TariffHODL #MarketRebound #crashmarket

Yes, we've finally reached the last moments of the countdown, seeing the last digit '1'. The last week of the last month. As I expected last week, we witnessed a market-shaking decline. I've been writing for the last 3 weeks trying to warn you. Year-end and quarterly closings don't happen extremely high or low. If there were sharp rises or falls before, it will make its correction before closing. This week, similarly, I don't expect very high volume. With holidays in many places, I don't think we'll see extreme movements as the market is left to retail users. You can access my previous writing through my profile.
Bitcoin

On December 27th, the last Friday of this year, the yearly contract will close, and we'll see approximately $13.7 billion in Notional Value contracts expiring. After that, until New Year's, the market will likely remain quite inactive or might cause erratic movements to trigger stops for retail investors. Therefore, it might be more logical to use this period for relaxation or planning. Although we saw average volatility last week, monthly volatility remained well below expectations.

BTC started the week with a decline and is trading below its monthly opening. The monthly candle structure doesn't look very promising for an upward movement in its current state. We might see a series of declines until mid-January. Looking at this week's candle also suggests the decline will continue. I don't think the 92k bottoms will work as support anymore; 87k and the 77-80k region look good for buying. This week's implied volatility range is 110k-80k.

This week's Put/Call Ratio increased slightly to 0.68. Additionally, the Max Pain Price is at 84k. The fact that approximately $13.7 billion worth of contracts would suffer maximum losses at this price shows we should remain cautious.

Ethereum
The Notional Value of ETH contracts expiring on December 27th is approximately $3.8 billion. ETH, which remained much weaker than BTC during the recent decline, looks a bit stronger this week. It's trying to maintain the $3300 level. Monthly-wise, it has a relatively better appearance, but it's still not a very confident structure. A breakout creating a candle like November's wouldn't be surprising, nor would attempting to fill the gap in the 2800 region. Therefore, January might be good for volatility trading. During the decline, we saw volatility higher than implied volatility.

ETH, which fell below its monthly opening last week with the double top formation, started this week with an increase. Although the 3250 region seems to work well as support, it's quite likely for the price to go to 3700 and then attempt another low. Therefore, 3000 and the 2800 region shown by the blue box are areas I'm watching as support. This week's implied volatility is 3900-2650.

This week's Put/Call Ratio increased slightly to 0.4 but remains quite positive. The Max Pain Price is at $3000. However, there's a much higher Put/Call Ratio of 0.96 for the first 10 days of January. I also want to create a volatility trade for the first half of January. There's an expectation of a decline for when Trump takes office.

ETHBTC

My expectation was that it wouldn't close candles below the 0.0349 region and would form an Inverse H&S pattern, but this structure was broken with recent declines and daily closings. But I'm not losing hope. It looks like a weekly double bottom pattern might form. The weekly and monthly structure still appears inclined to turn positive. The fact that it hasn't reached the last low is quite positive for me. Therefore, I'll now take my upward positions on the ETH side with more confidence. I won't stop being cautious until it moves above the purple box.

#ChristmasMarketAnalysis #BTCNextMove #USUALAnalysis #LastWeekInCrypto

The Last Month of the Year, Last Half of the Last Month

This week has been relatively stagnant with the price generally moving up and down. We've entered the most critical week of the month for the market. With the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate decisions, this week is particularly crucial. While a 25 basis point reduction is expected with 99% probability, inflationary statements might cause market pullbacks.

Bitcoin
Crypto and BTC started the week with a decline, then moved towards its weekly opening, and we saw a pump before closing. It could be a classic move for the price to rise until the FED announcement and then fall afterward with the statements. Generally, the market tends to move in one direction until the news and then reverse afterward. Therefore, it's important to be cautious. It seems more logical to make purchases with gradual pullbacks until Trump becomes president and then let it run its course.

As I mentioned last week, opening the year too high might bring a sharp decline at the beginning of the new year. Or we might expect contrary movements like a sharp upward movement in the new year if it falls too much. This week's implied volatility range is 88.5k - 120.5k.

Ethereum

ETH, which opened November at 2500 and December at 3700, is testing the 4000 resistance. After a sharp sell-off at the beginning of the week, it's slowly climbing up but still hasn't met expectations due to its weakness against BTC. I think the price will move more sharply with sustainability above 4100, but I believe it should proceed with confirmation. One shouldn't move too confidently before 4-hour and daily closings.

This week's Put/Call Ratio is 0.51, and the max pain price appears to be 3700. Implied volatility can be expected similar to last week at 3200-4700.

ETHBTC

Although weakness continues, as I mentioned last week, it looks positive as long as it stays above 0.0348. I think the main movement will progress when it stays above the purple box of 0.042.

#December2024 #BTCNewATH #ETHHits4KAgain #BitcoinKeyZone #FedRateDecisions

As we enter the 2nd week of December, we have left behind a week where the price was less volatile than the previous active month and the candles got smaller. I think the price will not make very sharp movements due to the end of the year and the end of the 4th quarter. I think the price will look for a place for itself a little more due to the possibility that the price will close very high and the sellers will load in the new year and month and the buyers will press very hard. It is likely to form a range with an up and down movement.
Bitcoin
We are in a phase where the price movement has slowed down considerably and the price is now starting to form a range.

I would consider it normal for the price to pull back to 15%. I expect the BTC price to enter the end of the month close to a price around this price. In pullbacks up to 82k, a contract can be purchased for the end of January.

Our implied volatility range this week is between 85.5k and 117k.

Ethereum
ETH, which touched its March 2024 peak for the first time after a long break, did not make a very sharp move, although it experienced a sell-off from here.

I think that ETH, which is still above the monthly opening, can find first supports at 3550-3600 and a good support again at 3300.

This week's implied volatility is 3250-4750.

ETHBTC
There is no change in the situation, it still has not been able to get above the purple box, but it looks very good. I think that an upward movement will come as long as it does not fall below 0.0384.

#MicroStrategyAcquiresBTC #December #AltSeasonBoom?

Greetings from the first week of the year's final month.
As I mentioned in my November analysis, 70k was just the beginning, and the upward movements created an excellent atmosphere for everyone. We've left behind a month where BTC couldn't quite touch 100k, ETH continued to show weakness, and XRP displayed its classic relentless rises. Now, we have a calendar filled with interest rate decisions, conferences, and Bitcoin discussions ahead. The European region and the US will be busy with interest rate decisions and inflation data in the second and third weeks of December. While ECB's 25 basis point cut is considered certain, there's less certainty about the FED. Additionally, Microsoft's shareholders will meet to discuss BTC, which will be significant news for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin
BTC, which hasn't quite touched the 100k price point, closed the last week with a decline. In November, we started seeing the expected movement as implied volatility rose 10% higher than anticipated. Everyone's wondering what the price will do in this month, which marks both Q4 and year-end closings.

It opened December at $96,500, and we can forecast monthly implied volatility around 37% and weekly at 15.4%. This shows us a monthly range of 61k to 132k, and weekly range of 82.5k to 112k. I think the 87k band will act as a pivot zone, with the 78k region serving as support below.

Put contracts are dominating for December 6th, with a Put/Call Ratio of 1.10. This week looks like it will be somewhat bearish, as typical for month beginnings. However, things look more positive for month-end.

December was quite positive during the 2017 and 2020 bull runs. In 11 years, it closed red 6 times and green 5 times - let's see if it will close green once more to even the score.

Ethereum
Despite showing more positive movement than BTC in recent weeks, I think it still hasn't shown the desired rise. It closed November with 5% volatility and approximately +9% increase. Its movement is progressing better compared to BTC.

ETH entered December at 3700, and we might see monthly volatility of 40% and weekly of 19%. Our price range is 2200-5200 monthly and 3000-4400 weekly. We can proceed with our game plan accordingly. The 3250 level will act as a pivot zone, with 3150 and 3000 serving as support zones below.

For December 6th, expectations for ETH are more positive, and call contract density is very high for month-end. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.48 for December 6th and 0.29 for month-end, showing a very bullish outlook. I think we shouldn't miss upward movements during pullbacks.

Let's see how we'll spend this month and whether our bullish scenarios will continue or if we'll take a break from the rises. What are your thoughts? We can discuss in the comments.

#MicrosoftBTCInvestmentVote #ETHOnTheRise #December

Navigate through crypto's most critical week as markets face US elections and Fed decisions. Analysis of BTC's $70K battle and ETH's crucial support levels, with actionable volatility trading strategies.
Greetings from an autumn day,
We've left behind another week where crypto raised everyone's hopes but continued with subsequent declines. Similarly, we've finished a month that was good for BTC but bad for ETH. We've also entered one of the most critical weeks for the market. This week is extremely crucial with the US Elections and Fed Interest Rate decision.
You can click here for November's general expectations and data, and here to read my expectations from last week.
Bitcoin
BTC, which opened the new month at 70k, has been declining since then. Last week's failure to touch ATH and the lack of a strong recovery so far is also concerning the market. We're in an important week with the elections tomorrow, followed by the Fed's interest rate decision on November 7th. I don't need to mention that there could be up and down movements on election day and that we need to be careful. However, a nice volatility trade could be made.

Last week, I mentioned that the price would be at a critical threshold going into the election and would show market indecision. Currently, BTC is below 70k and slowly declining. With a new month, our weekly and monthly volatility has also changed. November's weekly average implied volatility is 14.7%. This means our implied volatility range for this week is 58.5-79k.

While the market is undecided this week, Call contracts are more dominant as they think Trump will win the election. Contracts are particularly dense at the 80k price point. My thinking is that BTC's inflation-adjusted ATH price is around 79k, as we mentioned before, and it's likely that the 80k price will act as resistance for this reason. Also, we're seeing increases in our volatility.

Ethereum
ETH, which opened November at 2500, has gotten quite close to its recent lows, and the picture doesn't look very pretty. It's not unreasonable to think that ETH will fall further in a downturn and clean out to the lows at 2150. For volatility trading, you might consider ETH for downside and BTC for upside.

The last movement remained as a Lower High. A movement toward 2550 followed by cleaning out the lows seems likely. November's average weekly implied volatility is 16%. This shows us that this week will be in the 2050-2850 range. Let's see if the price will exceed our expected volatility?

In ETH, the Put/Call Ratio is still close to 1 in month-end contracts. Although the situation looks much better in November 8 contracts, it could be more affected in case of unexpected news or false news.

ETHBTC
Here, after making an upward movement as I expected, it continues its decline. Although it saw a reaction from the 035 point, I don't think this will be strong. I'm waiting for the 0.032-0.03 area for the trend to reverse.

Trade Of Week
Let's come to our election volatility trades. If we expect a 4% daily movement on the BTC side, our likely prices could be 71.5 upward and 65.5 downward. As contracts, November 7 dated 71.5k contract is around $100, while the 65.5k contract is around $80.

For ETH, we can take the 4% range as 2325 ($32) - 2525 ($37). The total cost is $180 on the BTC side and approximately $70 on ETH. If you take a BTC Call contract and ETH Put contract, it costs about $132.

If you're looking for more affordable prices, you can also look at November 6 dated contracts. What do you think the situations will be and will there be the expected price fluctuation?
#USElections2024Countdown #NovemberMarketAnalysis #VoteForCrypto #VolatilityWarning #OptionTrading

Greetings from a beautiful Saturday evening.
As we enter November, let's explore what lies ahead this month, what events we should anticipate, how we can prepare for them, and take a brief look back at October.

Yesterday, the market experienced some turbulence with the NFP data, and currently, the price is hovering around $69k. On November 5th, we have the highly anticipated US Elections, and while claims about Trump's victory are dominant, polls suggest the race is close. Right after, on November 7th, we have the Fed Interest Rate Decision. The market expects a 25 basis point reduction with 98% probability. There's a full moon on November 16th, and on various days in November, there will be meetings about AI Regulations, particularly in the UK and European Union. This could potentially affect AI products and coins.
Bitcoin
BTC, which fell 7% in the first week of October, subsequently began to rise, increasing by 16.2% and closed October with a 10.85% gain. While the implied volatility for October was 30%, the realized volatility was around 23%.

The price opened November at $70.2k. Monthly implied volatility for November is 37%, and we can expect 14% weekly. Monthly range could be $44k-96k. We're transitioning from times of decreased volatility to increased volatility. Yes, we're entering a month that could have quite high volatility, but high volatility hasn't arrived yet.

Therefore, we might expect 28-32% this month. This gives us a price band of $90-93k to $47-50k. We usually see initial selling pressure at monthly openings. I think the price will move around the $70k band until the election and could leave wicks both up and down.

Since 2013, it has closed red in only 4 out of 11 years. This could be quite a bullish month for us. My expectations are at least a rise to $80k, followed by a correction, and then progression up to the $90-93k range. Red months saw declines of more than 10%, and rises were similarly above 10%.
Ethereum
ETH, which spent October in the range formed after August's decline, closed below the monthly opening. It remained quite weak against BTC and broke important support levels. While October's implied volatility was 27.5%, realized volatility was 17.7%.

ETH entered November at $2515, with monthly implied volatility at 43% and weekly at around 16%. We can express this range as $1425-3600. Similarly, low volatility significantly affects ETH. Here too, with an average volatility expectation of 30-35%, we can consider upward movement to $3300-3400, and downward to $1750-1650.

I think ETH will lose some more strength against BTC and could retreat to 0.032-0.03 in the ETHBTC pair. The ETH weight can be increased with signs of reversal from that region. However, priority remains on the BTC side.

Since 2016, ETH has closed 4 red and 4 green in 8 years, typically making price movements of 10% up or down. I'm a bit worried since it's been moving in range since August and left its lows open. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me if the price pulls back to $2300.
Overall, I'll look at November 29 contracts and make a plan expecting the price to move at least 10% up or down.

For BTC, the $63k contracts at 10% down are $1600, 10% up price is at $2100. Looking at contract prices, we can see the market expects upward movement. Call contracts are currently seeing more demand. The Put/Call Ratio at 0.59 supports our prediction. This is one of the indicators that the market has raised its expectations due to the possibility of Trump's election. With contrary expectations or news, the price reaction could be in the opposite direction.
Buying both these contracts brings our total cost to $3700. As a reminder, we can buy these contracts as 0.1, and in that case, the cost would be $370.

On the ETH side, things look less positive. The $2200 contract at 10% down is $56, while $2800 is trading at $71. Total cost here will be $127. Looking at the Put/Call Ratio at 0.73 supports our prediction. Call contracts aren't as dominant as in BTC. There's more of an in-between expectation.
This is my general outlook for November. What do you think, and which possibilities do you see as more dominant? Can you estimate how much profit and loss we could make from these contracts?
#btcupdates2024 #NovCryptoOutlook #FedRateDecisions #NovemberProfits #Elections2024

October Week 4 Summary - Frustrating Movements Continue"
We've left behind a week where BTC couldn't break its resistance and ETH fell as if there was no tomorrow. We're starting the week with another green candle, but let's see what the outcome will be? You can check out my article at this link to review last week's expectations and possibilities.
Bitcoin
Although it's making Higher Lows and Higher Highs, it's affecting the rest of the market more significantly. While the price not going down appears bullish, lingering under resistance for so long doesn't look pleasant either. However, like many others, I also think it will test the 70k area again.

In BTC, I mentioned last week that staying below 68k wouldn't be good. Subsequently, it dropped below 68k with a high-volume candle and then pulled back to 65k. The reaction from 65k was good, and it still hasn't broken that low. Frankly, if it goes from here to test 70k again and fails, I won't be very hopeful. However, I don't think we'll enter the US Elections at either a very low or very high price. I expect it to be at a price where people will be uncertain about whether it's going up or down. This week's implied volatility range is between 60.5k and 75.5k.

Since this month lasted about 4.5 weeks, I based it on the contract until November 1. While calls are dominant in these contracts, they don't have a very high percentage. Beyond that, the pricing and outlook for November 29 is much more positive. The Put/Call Ratio for November 29 is 0.59, and Call contracts are accumulated at the 80k price. As I said last week for November, it would make more sense to buy from these dates as we might see increases in pricing as US elections approach.

Ethereum
We saw last week why the Put/Call Ratio in ETH has been between 0.9-1 since the beginning of the month. While BTC's decline remained minimal, ETH shook the market with a drop of more than 13%. We experienced firsthand why there were more downside contracts compared to BTC and why put and call contracts were so equal.

Although the price here also progresses with HH and HL, it has much lower momentum, and the lows are very close to each other. I think we shouldn't be too hopeful unless it breaks above 2800 and stays above 2900 permanently. The sharp break below the designated support in ETHBTC doesn't look good either; BTC will continue to dominate the market during this period. This week's implied volatility range is between 2200-2800.

For November 1, ETH has high amounts of put contracts at 2400 and call contracts at 2650 and 2900. While the Put/Call Ratio for November 29 appears to be 0.7, call contracts are concentrated at 2900 and 3000. It might make sense to buy upside contracts on BTC and downside ones on ETH.

ETHBTC
As I showed on the chart, I'm not thinking of taking an upside position until either it moves above 0.042 or comes down to the 0.03 region. The price broke the support area with high volume and sharply, and I don't think the intermediate supports will work well enough to turn the price around. I'll plan my positions as indicated until the price reaches one of my desired levels. Yes, maybe this could be the deviation of the downward channel, and I might miss its rise toward the purple box, but I'll have taken a safer trade.

In conclusion, I'm thinking of writing about a position we can take for November 8 at the beginning of the month. I think the price will be in a range and will make many people question whether we're going up or down. Therefore, while I don't expect very sharp movements this week, I think this level in BTC is the 70k region.
Good week to everyone, hoping for better days as we enter a new month.
#CryptoPreUSElection #BTC67KRebound #ETHBTCNewLow #November2024 #November

Uptober Shows Its Colors
Hello again after a nice weekly opening. It's been a long time since we've seen such green and strong candles, which brings our mood back. I hope it continues, and I'm pleased that last week went according to my expectations. You can check out my article at this link to review last week's expectations and possibilities.
Bitcoin
BTC, which has been rising since the opening last week, closed the week rising again towards the weekly close. The price looks quite strong. This week we see implied volatility and realized volatility intersecting perfectly.
Here's an extra bit of info: BTC's 2021 69k ATH adjusted for inflation is currently around 79k. From this perspective, BTC still appears not to have made a new ATH. Perhaps the 74k region might not bring as much selling pressure as we expect.

From this point on, I expect corrections to be short and in a way that most people can't enter, as is typical for BTC movements. We're entering a period where movements will become more intense and faster. Especially as the elections approach, the acceleration for crypto will increase as Trump's chances of winning increase. This week's implied volatility range is between 61.5k and 76.5k.

The price's persistent rise to high regions in this way is quite good. While the most call contracts for October 25 are at 70k, the most put contracts are at 55k. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.62. The market looks bullish for this week too. Our expectation for this week could be a slight pullback followed by an increase. Closings below 68k wouldn't be very good.

Ethereum
This week, ETH again rose much stronger than BTC close to the close. ETH, which also surpassed its monthly opening, closed the week over 5.5% up. This week's volatility rose slightly above the implied volatility. The Fear index continues its dominance in the Greed region.
Similarly, ETH's 2021 ATH of 4868 adjusted for inflation is currently $5,522. ETH, which couldn't make a new ATH in this rise, has a longer road ahead.

Although it's good that ETH has been strengthening lately, it still hasn't brought the desired movement. While ETHBTC is holding up well, it's important to remember that it's still at a critical threshold. I think the biggest obstacle ahead is the 2850 region. After staying above this region, I believe ETH's rises will accelerate. This week's implied volatility range is between 3075 and 2400.

The price's rapid rise at critical thresholds is quite positive. While the resistances ahead of BTC are much tighter, ETH has a more spaced structure. For this reason, it moves faster to the next one after closings above one area. For October 25 contracts, there's a very dense call contract at 3000, while put contracts are concentrated at 2300 and 2400. With a Put/Call Ratio of 0.94, the market's expectation might be that ETH's movements up and down will be sharp again. I don't want to see prices below 2700 for ETH, a drop to 2650 at most is necessary for continuity, below that I'd think the price is losing strength.

On the ETHBTC side, I'm hopeful as long as the price doesn't stay below 0.0384, and this area is holding the price quite well so far. I don't expect closings below this anymore. If there's movement in this direction, I'll adjust my positions. This week it wanted to make a new low again but bounced from 0.0384 and started to rise. Sharp rises will start after it gets above the 0.042 area.
Overall, I think it makes sense to buy November contracts now. I have a November 29, 3000 contract for ETH, I'm waiting for a suitable area to add more. The price movement until the elections might push the price up to 3300. If Trump doesn't win the elections, we might see the sudden sell-off there, or it might continue its rise from there, in my opinion. For this reason, buying rise contracts now and buying a fall contract for hedging before election day could be considered.
Have a good week everyone, hoping to see more green. Please, don't forget to leave your opinions and comments and like the article.
#UptoberBTC70K? #BTCSoarsTo68K #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #OptionTrading #OptionsExpiration