Flaneur

Hey everyone. As we enter the final week of July, we've closed out the previous week with a clear divergence in the market. While Bitcoin has entered a resting phase with low volatility after its new high, the long-awaited move came from Ethereum, which completely dominated the week. With options expiration approaching, let's dive in and see what the data is telling us.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Last week's summary clearly shows that BTC has passed its energy and momentum to altcoins, especially ETH. The price closed the week with a slight drop of 1.5%, but the Fear & Greed Index remaining at 73 indicates that investors are still maintaining their overall bullish expectations. This sideways movement can be read as a consolidation period where BTC is gathering strength for its next big move.

This week's expected volatility (implied volatility) range is between $102k and $132k. The price remaining in this wide range, especially if it tests the lower supports, could be seen as a buying opportunity for the next wave up.

Options Market Data:
Put/Call Ratio: The ratio, which was quite optimistic at 0.65 last week, has risen to 0.76. This indicates that some fear or at least hedging trades have entered the market due to the price stalling near its peak. It's likely that the rise in the Max Pain price to $110k is also related to this, as traders hedge their positions against a higher price target.DVOL: Remaining stable at 39%, it confirms that the near-term expectation for BTC is still one of low volatility.

Ethereum (ETH)
The star of the week was undoubtedly Ethereum. It broke upwards from the long-standing squeeze around the $2500 area with an incredibly powerful candle, as seen on the shared chart. With a massive weekly gain of 28.6%, the volatility that had been expected for months has finally arrived, even exceeding the monthly implied volatility. The surge in the Fear & Greed Index to 80 is also a reflection of this euphoria.

This week's implied volatility range points to a very wide zone between $3000 and $4500. With the breakout now confirmed, all eyes will be on whether this momentum can continue. A pullback towards the $3500-$3300 area and establishing stability there is critical for the continuation of the rally, and a move upwards can be expected again from these zones.

Options Market Data:
Max Pain: Following the price action directly, it jumped from last week's $2,500 level to $2,800. This shows that the market has accepted this as the new equilibrium point.Put/Call Ratio: In a similar move to BTC, we see this ratio has also increased from 0.62 to 0.79. This could reflect some investors taking profits after the sharp rally or hedging their positions against a possible pullback.DVOL: Rising from 66% to 70%, it shows us that after the sharp move, the expectation for future volatility has also increased.

ETH/BTC
With the rally in ETH, the 0.026 and 0.030 resistance levels were broken sharply last week. We can now confidently say that this area is a bottom. Of course, this doesn't mean there won't be pullbacks. However, we have now confirmed, along with the technicals, that ETH will be stronger. For this idea to be invalidated, we would need to see closes below 0.026 and then 0.023. Otherwise, our upside targets are the purple box region at 0.04 and the 0.049-0.050 zone.

#BTCvsETH #ETHBreaks3700 #StablecoinLaw #CryptoMarket4T #AltcoinBreakout

Hey everyone, and welcome to the second week of July. As we saw from the data, we left the first week behind with very calm and compressed price action. The market continues to bide its time, accumulating within a narrow range. This "calm before the storm" situation is revealing some interesting signals in both the technicals and the options data. Let's take the pulse of the market with this week's data and charts.
Bitcoin (BTC)
Last week's summary clearly laid out the general market sentiment: although the Fear & Greed Index showed "Extreme Greed" at 73, the price action was quite stagnant. The week only managed to close in the green thanks to a weekend rally. This situation shows that while investors are optimistic, they are waiting for a catalyst to open new positions.

With every rally, excitement builds, only for the price to pull back again. The price is moving in an increasingly smaller range, while a stronger resistance zone awaits above. The longer this compression lasts, the more powerful the eventual breakout is expected to be. I personally think it's not wise to have high expectations until the ATH is broken with significant volume. This week's implied volatility range is almost the same as last week, between $95.6k and $123k.

Options Market Data:
Max Pain (July 25 Expiry): Remains fixed at $105,000, showing that this area continues to act as a "price magnet."Put/Call Ratio: This was the most volatile data point of the week. The ratio dropped from 0.76 last week to 0.65. This is a bullish signal, indicating that demand for "Put" (sell) options is decreasing while demand for "Call" (buy) options is increasing. The market is pricing in less downside risk and is willing to pay a higher premium for a potential upward move.DVOL: Staying at 39%, it remains near historical lows. If you are expecting a move, now is the perfect time to buy contracts, because when expected volatility is this low, contracts are at their cheapest.Funding Rate: It has started to rise. I think we will soon see whether this increase, despite the lack of significant price movement, is a leading indicator or just a retail-driven move.

Ethereum (ETH)
A similar compression is dominant on the Ethereum side. After a week that saw a 5.4% rise followed by a 5.1% fall, ETH's Fear & Greed Index remains in the "Greed" zone at 65. Its struggle around the $2500 area continues.

The chart shows us again how critical the $2500 level is as a pivot. While the price's effort to stay above this level is a positive sign, the weakness of the rallies doesn't look very good either. Similar to last week, the expected volatility for this week points to a price range between $2070 and $3070. Although my own positioning is skewed downwards, I will be paying close attention to the $2800 zone if the price trades above $2600.

Options Market Data:
Put/Call Ratio (July 25 Expiry): It showed a slight increase from 0.55 last week to 0.62. This suggests that the extreme optimism has normalized a bit, but with the ratio still well below 1, the bullish expectation remains strong.DVOL: Remaining fixed at 65%, it underscores how much more alive the expectation of volatility is for ETH compared to BTC.
ETH/BTC
After the drop to 0.022, the price is moving upwards very slowly. Not much has changed for a while. It appears to be following Path 1, which I outlined in a previous analysis.

Conclusion
The market continues to be squeezed in a narrow band, and this situation is a harbinger of a sharp move to come. Significant changes in some indicators suggest that certain market expectations are now being acted upon.
#TrumpTariffs #DayTradingStrategy #MuskAmericaParty #SpotVSFuturesStrategy #BTCWhaleMovement

Hey everyone. I waited until today to share the weekly and monthly analysis together. With the weekly close yesterday and the new monthly open today, we're leaving Q2 behind and kicking off Q3, a new quarter packed with critical data and events for the crypto markets. After the general stagnation in June, July looks set to be an intense month, both in terms of the macroeconomic calendar and internal market dynamics. Let's dive into what's ahead.

Right at the start of the month, on July 8-9, the US's 90-day pause on implementing so-called "reciprocal" tariffs on 180 trading partners comes to an end. This could create some tension in global markets. The US and Eurozone CPI data, to be released between July 15-18, will be one of the month's most critical events, directly influencing future interest rate decisions by central banks. At the end of the month, on July 30, we'll be watching the interest rate decisions from the US and Japan. An expected rate hike from Japan, in particular, could unleash a new wave of volatility in the markets.
I continue to incorporate historical volatility tables into my analysis. These tables provide a general framework, especially when positioning at the beginning of the month. I'll use this data for my positions across different timeframes. I'll specifically use the daily volatility data for leveraged trades and short-term option positions ahead of major news events.
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC had a relatively calm June with a total volatility of 11%, failing to break its previous all-time high (ATH). Despite this, closing Q2 with a 30% gain shows that its medium-term strength remains intact.

For July, the historical average monthly volatility is around 28.5%. Historically, July has closed in the red four times with losses between 5-10%, but it usually closes green with gains above 10%, often between 10-20%. The general market sentiment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 66, is on the "Greed" side. However, the slowdown in price action points to some indecision.

The monthly implied volatility of 28.5% gives us a price range of $76.5k - $138k, while the weekly implied volatility of 12.5% points to a range of $95k - $122k. We can identify the $103k-$104k area as this month's pivot zone, and the $97k-$98k area as the pivot for Q3.

Personally, I don't think BTC has formed a top structure yet, and I believe any downward moves will likely remain as corrections. I see $103k and $99k as significant support levels and plan to open long positions on pullbacks to these areas.
Looking at the options market data:
For the July 25 expiry, the Max Pain price has risen from $102,000 last week to $105,000. This suggests the market expects the price to converge around this level at expiration.The Put/Call Ratio has increased from 0.72 to 0.76, indicating that moderate optimism continues.DVOL (Derivative Volatility) has dropped from 42% to 38%. While this suggests the expectation of low volatility might continue, I'll touch more on this later.The Funding Rate is hovering at neutral levels. If the price corrects and the funding rate turns negative, that would be a major buy signal for me.In the ATM vs. Realized Volatility chart, we see that realized volatility dropped towards the end of June. Although it has recovered from the negative zone with recent ups and downs, it remains subdued. This indicates the market is in a calmer phase but is potentially setting the stage for a sharp move.

Ethereum (ETH)
ETH experienced a 13% rise and a 16.3% fall in June, ultimately closing the month with a 3% loss and struggling to break the $2500 zone. However, the Q2 candle, which saw a 24% drop followed by a 58% rally to finally close with a 36% gain, showcases ETH's resilience.

Historically, July has been more volatile for ETH than for BTC, with an average monthly volatility of 39%. This means we could see sharper moves in ETH this month. In the past, July has either closed red with a 5% or 25% drop, or it has closed with a massive 50% gain twice. The ETH Fear & Greed Index is at 59, showing a neutral sentiment.

The monthly volatility of 39% gives us a wide price range of $1500 - $3450. On a weekly basis, our implied volatility range of 19.5% is between $2000 and $3000. It's likely we have an active month ahead. We can pinpoint the $2500 area as this month's pivot and the $2250 area as the pivot for Q3. The $2,100-$2,200 zone, in particular, looks like an ideal area to position for a move.

Here's the breakdown of options and other data:
For the July 25 expiry, the Max Pain price has increased from $2,200 to $2,500. This level is also a significant technical resistance, making it a likely target for expiration.The Put/Call Ratio has risen from 0.52 to 0.55, showing that the market is quite optimistic about ETH and expects a continued rise.Although DVOL has dropped from 73% to 65%, it remains at a high level, indicating that the expectation of volatility for ETH is still very much alive.

The price accumulating below $2500 and testing investors' patience could be a prelude to a sharp upward move. A decisive break above this area will likely attract new buyers.
DVOL (Volatility Index) and the Calm Before the Storm
The DVOL index, which is Bitcoin's implied volatility index, gives us a critical signal about the market's mood. Similar to the VIX index in traditional markets, DVOL measures the expectation of future price volatility among options traders.
Currently, we see the DVOL index approaching its all-time lows (ATL). This indicates that the market is in a state of extreme complacency and does not expect significant price swings in the near future. This complacency also makes option premiums cheaper.

However, financial market history has taught us one thing: extremely low volatility is often the precursor to extremely high volatility. The market is like a coiled spring. When it moves sideways for this long and volatility drops this much, the eventual breakout (up or down) is usually very sharp and explosive. The fact that everyone in the market expects calm is one of the strongest contrarian signals that a big move is approaching. While it's hard to predict the direction, these low DVOL levels are whispering that we should be prepared for the start of a sharp new trend in the coming weeks.
Conclusion
BTC closed Q2 with a 30% gain, and ETH with a 36% gain, confirming the overall uptrend. However, the DVOL index at historic lows suggests the market is in a dangerously calm state. Historically, July has shown mixed results for both BTC and ETH. Therefore, this month's closing will likely be triggered by macroeconomic developments, especially CPI data and interest rate decisions. While options data paints an optimistic picture on one hand, the "calm before the storm" scenario created by DVOL on the other tells us we need to be prepared for a sharp move in either direction at any moment. We'll be watching developments closely.
#TrumpVsMusk #REX-OSPREYSolanaETF #OneBigBeautifulBill #StrategyBTCPurchase #BinanceAlphaAlert

End of Q2: When Fear Increases...
We closed last week with a sell-off following the US bombing attempt in the Iran-Israel conflict. Although we saw a dip on Sunday due to rumors of the Strait of Hormuz closing, this didn't fully reflect reality, and yesterday we witnessed ceasefire agreements. In a period where fear had escalated so much, I believed the decline was over and took a long position. I think the coming days are critical.
Bitcoin
Although Monday saw a manipulated increase, it was followed by another sell-off. The rest of the week was dominated by selling, and the range-bound movement continued. While the double top formation on BTC doesn't look very promising, it's worth remembering that during a similarly critical time in the 2021 bull run, it continued its rally even after confirming a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. The possibility of a similar situation should be considered.

Last week, I mentioned that while I expected a new ATH, I was hesitant due to the anticipated risks. With yesterday's weekly open, the price made a nice move by pushing back above the monthly open. I will be hesitant to take short positions as long as the price does not trade below the $103.5k region. Being the last week of Q2, I'm torn between thinking it could be either very volatile or very calm. I will likely avoid taking many trades until I see more decisive movements. This week's implied volatility range is between $86k and $115k.

While DVOL continues to decline, the ratio of put contracts in the month-end options has further increased, with the Put/Call Ratio reaching 0.72 and the max pain level now at $102k. This Friday, BTC contracts worth $14.8 billion will expire.

Ethereum
After an unsuccessful move towards $2700, ETH experienced a pullback all the way to $2100. The price structure, which was stuck around the $2500 level, remained very weak against BTC and suffered a sharp sell-off.

It broke down through that "wicky" structure on the weekly chart with intense selling. However, yesterday it recovered quickly along with BTC and re-entered that range. The weekly implied volatility is in the $1780-$2670 range. Since it still hasn't fully regained its strength, I'm keeping my focus on BTC.

The rise in DVOL has paused; in fact, there's a decline. While bullish positioning continues, the market sentiment remains bullish for this week, although the P/C Ratio for month-end contracts has slightly increased to 0.52. The Max Pain Price is at $2200, the area where it has been stuck for several weeks.

ETH/BTC
The structure of lower highs and higher lows has broken to the downside. However, it currently appears to have found support at the 0.022 region, which I have been mentioning for a long time. Since I expect sharp movements when we see a rise from here, it would be logical to include ETH in long positions. However, for a more significant position, it might be better to wait for a sustained hold above 0.026; otherwise, the trend is still downwards.

#MarketRebound #NEWTBinanceHODLer #IsraelIranConflict #ScalpingStrategy #SwingTradingStrategy

We've left another week behind us, full of up-and-down moves that ultimately closed right where it opened. We're navigating a period of heightened risk, from the Trump-Elon saga last week to the Israel-Iran conflicts this week. We have now entered a week expected to have high risk and volatility, driven by the G7 summit, interest rate decisions, the Iran-Israel conflict, and key data releases.
Bitcoin
During the price's move towards a new ATH, another sell-off occurred from the $110k region. However, it quickly recovered from the $102k area and pushed back above the monthly open. Today, it has once again moved towards the $110k region with another rally.

Although I expect a new ATH this week, my expectation for an ATH within this month continues due to the anticipated risks. I believe it will continue its back-and-forth movements within this range until the first week of July. Therefore, I don't anticipate any extreme upward or downward moves. This week's implied volatility range is between $90k and $121k. On the monthly chart, the highs and lows of previous weeks have still not been breached.

While the DVOL continues to decline, the ratio of put contracts in the month-end options has further increased, with the Put/Call Ratio at 0.66, and no change in the max pain level. For June 20th, the Put/Call Ratio paints a bearish picture at 1.13. The max pain price is $105k.

Ethereum
After making a move above $2800 and failing again, ETH experienced another pullback to the $2500 level. Despite this week's risks, crypto, which saw only a limited decline, continued its ascent today.

In contrast to BTC, I expect a somewhat slower movement from ETH. I believe ETH will proceed more cautiously while BTC maintains its dominance. Although another test of the blue box is likely, it's wise to approach with caution. The weekly implied volatility is in the $2040-$3060 range. I think ETH needs to close the month above at least $2600, and above $2800 for a bullish outlook.

The DVOL for ETH continues to rise. While bullish positioning persists, the market expects a rally this week as well, with a weekly P/C Ratio of 0.66. The Max Pain Price is at $2600, the area where it has been stuck for several weeks.

ETH/BTC
Nothing has changed here; it continues to make lower highs and higher lows. I don't think it's necessary to take any risks until a breakout occurs. From a High Time Frame (HTF) perspective, a move to 0.030 followed by a retest of 0.027 could offer a good entry point. A sustained hold above 0.026 could also be traded for a move towards 0.030.

#IsraelIranConflict #MarketRebound #TrumpBTCTreasury #SaylorBTCPurchase #BinanceHODLerHOME

We've experienced a week where the price moved slightly up and down, ultimately ending up in the same place. The decline that came with Elon and Trump's standoff was quickly recovered, and the strong structure continues to persist. Although ETH still appears somewhat weaker compared to BTC, Bitcoin continues to carry and dominate the market. We've entered a week where US inflation data will be announced and the G7 summit will begin. Since this will be one of the most critical data points for interest rate cuts, I believe its impact will be significant.
Bitcoin
After making its weekly opening, it closed slightly above its weekly opening with small movements. The price is also trading slightly above its monthly opening. In the movement experienced so far, it appears much less strong compared to ETH.

This week's implied volatility is similar to last week, ranging between 91k and 121k. I think the price harbors a desire to move upward, and I believe these 2 weeks will be quite positive. For this reason, I've taken upward positions.

The decline continues in the volatility index DVOL, but overall, contract purchases are also quite noticeably high. DVOL dropping this much suggests we might see sharp movements soon. In June 13 contracts, the Max Pain Price is 106k, and although call contracts are slightly more dominant, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.95, it can't be said to have a very bullish appearance.

Ethereum
Similar to BTC but with more movement. Weekly closes have been closing in doji candle form for 4 weeks. Here too, similar to BTC trying to close above 102k, it's trying to hold above 2500.

This week's implied volatility range is again in the 2000-3000 range. ETH, which has been making range movements in approximately a 20% area for about 40 days, won't make sense to expect sharp movements without breaking the 2800 area.

In ETH this week, the put/call ratio of 0.80 looks somewhat bullish. With the abundance of contract purchases, we can say sharp volatility is approaching in ETH as well. However, due to its weaker appearance, looking at short ETH and long BTC might be more logical. The max pain level is 2550.

ETHBTC
There isn't much change here, but since mid-May, we see a squeeze with lower tops and higher lows in every movement. It might be more logical to wait for breakouts before taking positions. Otherwise, I don't think there's a bearish outlook as long as it doesn't stay below the 0.021 zone.

#CryptoCharts101 #TradingMistakes101 #USChinaTradeTalks #TrumpTariffs #BigTechStablecoin

Greetings after a long break. Alongside the new design changes, I'm also adding some new features. We bid farewell to May with a positive move for crypto. June holds important developments, along with data and events that will shape the future of crypto. We are also entering a period where geopolitical developments will be intense. Now, let's see what lies ahead.
On June 5th, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision, with a 250 basis point cut likely expected. This will be followed by the G7 Leaders' Summit from June 15-17, and immediately after, the FED interest rate decision on the 18th. Apart from these, it's likely we'll experience a volatile month due to developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, peace talks, and tariffs.

I've also added daily average volatilities to the historical volatility table. I'll be using daily and weekly volatilities for my shorter-term trades. Additionally, I consider weekly and monthly data when establishing positions at the beginning of the month. I will use the daily average volatility data for leveraged trades and shorter-term option positions I take before significant news or data releases.
Bitcoin
Although BTC made a new ATH in May, we saw a more stagnant period, followed by an 8% sell-off.
For June, the monthly implied volatility is 35%, and weekly is 14.3%. This suggests a range between $68k and $141k. We've observed a decrease in BTC's volatility in recent months. On a weekly basis, with 14.3% implied volatility, we can define the price range as $90k-$121k.

The fact that the price isn't decisively moving up or down, combined with market, economic, and geopolitical uncertainties, increases the expectation of sharp bidirectional movements. However, I don't believe a top structure has formed yet, and I think any potential downward movement will remain a correction. I anticipate $98k and $93k will act as important support levels. I will take long positions if the price reaches these regions. Frankly, a direct upward move would raise some questions for me, but I would still add a small position.

For the end-of-June contracts, the max pain price is $100k, and the Put/Call Ratio is 0.60, painting a very bullish picture. With the recent decrease in volatility, DVOL has dropped to 42% today. The Funding Rate has been at 0 for a while; if it turns negative during any potential correction, that would be one of the biggest bullish signals for me. For the June 6th weekly contract, the max pain price is $105k, and the Put/Call Ratio is 0.75, indicating a somewhat bullish sentiment. It's also worth noting that there's significant volume in the June contracts.

Ethereum
ETH, which closed May with 58% volatility, has been moving sideways for the past three weeks after its rise in the first week. This accumulation below resistance is making those who have lost hope anxious, similar to the situation with BTC. This raises the question: if the price corrects downwards, will we see panic selling, or will it surge sharply without any correction, leaving behind those who missed the initial rise and are waiting to buy?
The monthly average implied volatility for June is 40%, corresponding to the $1500-$3550 region. The weekly average implied volatility is 20%, equating to the $2030-$3050 range. We've seen a significant increase in ETH's volatility over recent months, and it continues to rise.

In April, despite a very sharp drop, ETH quickly recovered, saving its candle structure from a bearish outlook. In May, it sent a clear "I'm not dead yet" message with a strong rally. While many who were pessimistic about altcoins have regained hope, those who missed the buying opportunity are now waiting for a correction. I'm inclined to be a buyer on pullbacks to the $2350 region and below. The $2100-$2200 zone, in particular, is a very good area for positioning. I plan to position for the end of June and July with incremental buys on pullbacks to this area. The important points on my charts have been fixed for months. One of them is the red line 2500 and the blue box in the 2800-2900 area. As I mentioned before, it is not right to dream too much before these areas are completely broken. We still have not seen a good weekly close above 2500. For this reason, I will start positioning upwards in the correction that will come with the new month. The 2300-2100 areas will be my buy points for upward positions. This is my general plan.

For June contracts, the market has a very bullish expectation with a 0.48 Put/Call Ratio, and there's active, high-volume buying of end-of-June contracts. The max pain price for the end of June is $2200, and for June 6th, it's $2600. The P/C Ratio for the June 6th contract is 0.62, again showing a bullish picture.

ETH/BTC
I believe it would be better for the price to form a clear bottom structure and then rise in a V-shape. While a move back towards the 0.021 region wouldn't be surprising, I don't expect it to make a new low. In my opinion, it shouldn't dip below the 0.021 region. My conviction that the uptrend in this pair will truly begin will be solidified if it stays above 0.026. 0.033 is an important resistance, and after sustaining above it, I think the 0.04 region will be our main resistance. Sharp rises are likely above this region. But first things first.

Conclusion
Historically, Bitcoin has closed June in the red 6 times and in the green 6 times. ETH, on the other hand, has only closed green 3 times and red 6 times, often with sharp sell-offs. Currently, Q2 data shows $BTC has provided a 26% return, and $ETH 39%. Let's see how we'll close this month with the upcoming developments.
#TradingTypes101 #MarketPullback #FTXRefunds #SaylorBTCPurchase #PCEMarketWatch

Unfortunately, I have not been able to publish monthly and weekly data for a while. For this reason, let's take a general look at May and see the situation.
The price has been neither going up nor down for a few weeks and indecision is increasing. The fact that BTC has been at the peak of ETH under significant resistance leaves people in the middle between a sharp correction or an increase. I do not see any signs that this region is the top yet. The fact that the classic ladder structure continues right now and the price does not willingly go up or down is very bullish and does not show a peak structure. Such a statement is not true when no market structure is broken and there is no HTF weakness. Yes, the markets are uncertain due to policy inflation and interest rates, but I also think that the uncertainty here should not be considered the market.

Although the movement in BTC is not as strong as ETH, it still looks good. However, due to both the beginning of the month and the weakness in the recent structures, I think it will make a correction and the price may pull back to the 98k region. If you take a broader view of the chart and look at it with a weekly time frame, you can see that the last candlestick structures are not very good and there could be a potential double top. I think that the price will start to rise with the rumors of double tops and the increase in panic when it reaches the 98k or maybe 91k region next week. Of course, we can go from here without any correction and call it a classic BTC bull and look back, but this scenario seems more logical to me since uncertainty is so effective and monetary policies are still not loosening. If we see dovish statements in the FED interest rate decision and the discourses before it in 19 days, I think we will have very good months ahead of us.

Monthly implied volatility in ETH seemed to be 70% due to the 2017 pump. If we did not add the data from that date, implied volatility could be expected as 50%. ETH both gave people hope again and gained some strength with a move of up to 58%. We see that we have seen a bottom formation in ETHBTC and maybe there may be another bottom attempt. Frankly, I do not expect this movement very much due to the V-shaped image, but I keep it among the possibilities.

The monthly image is quite bullish, it seems to have a weekly image that is prone to a bit of correction. The important points on my charts have been fixed for months. One of them is the red line 2500 and the blue box in the 2800-2900 area. As I mentioned before, it is not right to dream too much before these areas are completely broken. We still have not seen a good weekly close above 2500. For this reason, I will start positioning upwards in the correction that will come with the new month. The 2480-2300-2100 areas will be my buy points for upward positions. This is my general plan.

In summary, although the possibility of the price moving sharply in both directions is taken into account, it does not change the fact that our direction is up. For this reason, if you are in between, it may make sense to establish two-way positions. Yes, it will be a little more costly, but you will reduce your risk and the possibility of missing the move. Positioning in a two-way direction between 8-10% on a monthly basis may make sense.
Good days to all of you in the new month

February closed in red for the third time in BTC's history and the second time in ETH's history. We've left behind a February that ended with sharp declines, making many investors uneasy with its movements at the top. As we enter March, when quarters will close, important news and data await us. During these days of high-impact data on prices, numerous factors are at play, including war, tariffs, economic conditions, and inflation. Expectations have increased with Trump's announcement of important news tomorrow. Additionally, the White House will host a crypto summit on March 7.

Bitcoin
Last week's decline broke the narrow price movement within the month. Although monthly implied volatility remained lower, recent movements have increased volatility expectations. Despite breaking below the important 90k support, it climbed back above with March's opening.

Looking at March data, we can expect monthly average volatility of 33% and weekly of 15%. This suggests a price range from the monthly opening at 84k between 56k and 112k, and from today's weekly opening between 80k and 109k. The 88k region can be monitored as a pivot.

While $11 billion worth of contracts were purchased for March 28, the Max Pain price is 85k. The Put/Call Ratio at 0.45 indicates quite bullish expectations. The Funding Fee has also turned positive again.

Ethereum
ETH experienced a 36% drop after the monthly opening, followed by range movement between 2500-2850. With last week's decline, the 2075 region again served as support. It approached implied volatility with 38% monthly volatility.

March presents a handicap. In March 2017, its rise from $15 to $55 created 250% volatility. This is significant enough to mislead our data. Therefore, I'll share and graph the ratios excluding 2017's data. After this adjustment, monthly average volatility is 66%, weekly approximately 22%. Excluding 2017, the monthly average becomes 40%, weekly 17.5. Monthly 66% Implied volatility range shows $750-3700, 40% shows $1340-3140, and weekly shows 1965-3160. The 2550 region can be monitored as a pivot.

For March 28, $2 billion worth of contracts were purchased, with Max Pain price at $2800. The Put/Call Ratio at 0.34 indicates very bullish expectations. DVOL shows a 68% increase.

ETHBTC
Though testing the 0.3 region, it continues its downward trend. I believe we shouldn't see closures below the expanding channel. Perhaps the movement providing ETH's high volatility could come through ETHBTC chart movements. We might see much sharper movements with price moving up or down. I consider 0.0195 and 0.03 as important support and resistance areas that should work during sharp movements.

#USCryptoReserve #MarketRebound #BTCRebundsBack #CMEsolanaFutures

Last week, the market saw Ethereum attempting to break the 2850 mark while Bitcoin moved like a stable coin. The market faced two sell-offs due to stagflation and ETH hack news. Despite this week being relatively quiet in terms of news, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index data on Friday will be significant. Additionally, Trump will be speaking today at 10 PM.
Bitcoin
After its weekly opening, Bitcoin closed slightly above its weekly opening with minor movements. Although it attempted to reach 100k, it faced a sharp sell-off from there. The price is still below the monthly opening. The Volatility Index for BTC has reached its lowest level since July 2024. If DVOL remains below 42, we could see significant price movements.

This week's implied volatility is similar to last week, ranging between 82k and 110k. It opened with a sharp sell-off and is currently down by 2.5%. It continues to maintain its wick structure, and volatility is decreasing. If it approaches the 89-91k range, I will consider long positions. However, my primary target is for the price to first reach the 104 area.

The Max Pain level has dropped to a price of 99k. Although call contracts are prevalent, the Put/Call Ratio at 0.75 does not indicate a bullish outlook. Due to the monthly contract closure, contracts worth 5 billion will be closing.

Ethereum
Ethereum has shown similar movements to BTC but with more volatility. It attempted to break the 2850 mark three times but failed. Although it closed above its weekly opening, there was a 6% sell-off today. Similarly, ETH is hovering just above the trend support, making it illogical to buy or sell without a clear support or resistance breakout.

There wasn't much different movement from last week. It would be wise not to buy altcoins without seeing a clear close above the 2850-2900 range. This week's implied volatility range has remained unchanged at 2280-3350. Instead of trading within the 2650-2850 price range, it would be more prudent to wait for breakouts. I am looking for the 2300 area below and the 3200 area above.

This week, we may see much higher volatility in ETH compared to BTC. The total Open Interest for the February 28 contracts is 515k contracts, valued at 1.4 billion dollars. The Max Pain level has dropped to 3000, and while the Put/Call Ratio has risen from 0.51 to 0.56, indicating a bullish market expectation, we are seeing an increase in put contracts. We can say that volatility is approaching in ETH.

ETHBTC
There isn't much change here, but if we are to see upward reactions, we need to see some indicators for a bottom formation. If we see movement above the 0.03 price, I believe it could progress much faster. Otherwise, my thought continues that it will drop to the 0.022 area.

#BTCDipOrRebound #InfiniHacked #SaylorBTCPurchase #ETHPriceWatch #SECStaking

In BTC, we’ve seen about a 5% movement, while ETH showed around 10% movement, with the price making limited upward and downward movements before heading back towards its opening. I don’t think it makes much sense to establish heavy positions without breaking through the identified support and resistance levels.
Bitcoin
After making its weekly opening, BTC closed slightly below that opening with small movements. The price is still trading below the monthly opening. So far, it appears much weaker compared to ETH in this movement.

This week’s implied volatility is similar to last week, ranging between 82k and 110k. Although the price made a weak upward movement, it fell sharply below the weekly opening. It continues to maintain its wick structure, and volatility is decreasing.

There is also a decline in the volatility index (DVOL), and overall contract purchases are quite low. We may not see much movement on the BTC side this week. While call contracts are prevalent, the Put/Call Ratio at 0.75 does not indicate a bullish outlook.

Ethereum
ETH has shown more movement compared to BTC, although it closed slightly above its weekly opening, still 19% below the monthly opening. Similarly, ETH is hovering just above the trend support, making it unwise to buy or sell without a clear breakout of support or resistance. We saw this in today’s movement as well.

Today, ETH rose strongly to around 2850, but a sell-off occurred alongside BTC. It would be prudent not to make purchases in altcoins without seeing a clear close above the 2850-2900 region. Holding a swing short without seeing movement below the trend increases the likelihood of getting stopped out, as seen in today’s action. This week’s implied volatility range is between 2150 and 3170.

This week, we may see much higher volatility in $ETH compared to $BTC . We are witnessing significant contract purchases this week and at the end of the month, which we haven’t seen in previous weeks. Two days ago, total contract purchases were around 15k, while this week, the call contract volume has reached 100k. The put contract volume is around 45k. The end-of-month put/call ratio has dropped to 0.51, appearing quite bullish. We can say that increased volatility is approaching for ETH.

ETHBTC
There aren’t many variables here, but if we are to see upward reactions, we need to observe some indicators for a bottom formation. If we see movement above the 0.03 price, I believe it could progress much faster. Otherwise, my thought that it will go lower to the 0.022 region still stands.

#GeopoliticalImpactOnBTC #AIandStablecoins #CryptoLovePoems #BinanceAlphaAlert #ETHBigMove

🔥 My Volatility Trade Setup Before CPI Data! 🔥
Hey traders! With CPI data around the corner, I’m setting up a volatility trade. Here’s my plan:
💰 Feb 15: 2450 Call (14.5$) + 2800 Put (14.5$)
Total cost: 29$.

📅 Why February 15?
This week, including Friday, is packed with major news. CPI might spark volatility, but if the expected move doesn’t hit, other news or delayed market reactions could still bring action later.
💡 Why these contracts?
My goal is to profit from contract value. Since the expiry is farther out, contracts are pricier. I picked strikes far from the spot price but close to potential volatility. If volume stays low, I won’t wait for exercise—contract value is key.
⚖️ Why options over leverage?
Price could spike up then crash; I don’t want to get stopped out by a wick. With options, my max risk is 29$, but upside is limitless.
🚨 What’s the risk?
The biggest risk is flat price action, causing my contracts to lose value over time. But my loss is capped at 29$, while gains depend on how far the price moves or how much the contracts appreciate.
I hope I have shown you why I prefer options and what perspective it has.
What’s your take on CPI and the next market move? Drop your thoughts below! 💬
#CPIvsCrypto #BTCStateReserves #BTCvsInflation #BinanceAlphaAlert #ETH

Greetings from Inflation Week
We've entered a week where additional volatility is expected. A busy week awaits us. We can say this inflation data will influence upcoming interest rate decisions. Throughout the week, there will be important news and data. You can see the details below. FTX announced that repayments will begin on February 18th with a 20.5% interest rate. Additionally, Trump announced he will sign Executive Orders at 1 PM ET.
Weekly Important Events and News (GMT +3):
Monday 19:15 - ECB President Lagarde speech
Tuesday 15:15 - BoE Governor Bailey Speaking - 18:00 Fed's Chair Powell testifies
Wednesday 16:30 - US CPI / Core CPI YoY & MoM
Thursday 16:30 - US PPI & US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday 13:00 - Eurozone GDP YoY/QoQ Flash Estimate - 17:15 US Industrial Production MoM
*Various ECB Speakers throughout the week
Bitcoin
BTC, with February's weekly implied volatility of 14.9%, realized an 11.3% movement. We generally saw continuous up and down price movement. Currently testing last week's opening price. We can assume there's a waiting period, likely due to news expectations. While February's implied volatility is 34.2%, we've seen a 10.9% movement in 10 days.

We can define this week's implied volatility range between 82k and 111k. Due to price compression, the upcoming movement is likely to be rapid. I don't think the price will drop much below 94k. I expect the next movement to be towards the 113-115k region and am positioning accordingly.

Max Pain level has retreated to 100k since last week. We see many orders increasing in this region. While it might act as resistance, I believe the main resistance is at 104k. I think 104k and 108k will be our primary resistance levels. Therefore, 107k contracts until month-end look very reasonable from these levels.

Ethereum
Although ETH quickly recovered after this week's sharp decline, movements have slowed but remain more volatile than BTC. It closed weekly volatility above implied at 28.1%. ETH, which filled 75% of its monthly 48.5% implied volatility in the first week, might close this way without going below 2100 or above monthly opening.

With weekly implied volatility at 19.1%, we can base our price range between 2125 and 3125. While price slowdown after sharp movement is normal, we can say ETH typically increases its movement after such periods. I think we might see another movement towards the 2300 region, followed by an upward price direction. The blue box region (2800-2850) might work as our first resistance. My expected main resistance is at 3200 and the Monthly opening level.

We see the max pain price has retreated here as well. However, unlike BTC, the Put/Call Ratio has decreased to 0.53. This is a positive development, showing the market expects more upside. Although Funding Rate is negative, this suggests the decline might continue a bit longer but ultimately is a positive development. Against my upward position in BTC, I have downward contracts in ETH. I plan to close when price pulls back to 2300 and take upward positions.

ETHBTC
Although holding above 0.026 support, I expect another movement towards the lower wick. It needs to make a movement towards 0.025 and get a good reaction. We need to see a bottom structure from these levels now, as going lower would bring the 0.022 region.

#BTCvsInflation #LTC&XRPETFsNext? #BTCNextATH? #cpi #BitcoinWhaleMove

Greetings after a long break. We've entered a week of sharp sells following the month's close. While BTC didn't pull back significantly, we witnessed drops of up to 30% in ETH and altcoins. I had previously shared charts on Twitter indicating these potential sells. February holds significant developments and events that will shape crypto's future. Let's examine what lies ahead. The inflation data coming on February 12th is crucial as it will determine future interest rate cuts and monetary policies. Additionally, FTX repayments will begin at the end of February, which are highly price-impactful news.

Bitcoin
January's volatility remained below expectations at 21.7%, showing mostly range-bound movement. Towards month-end, it pulled the market down with declines. BTC, which fell 10% from its monthly opening, currently trades 3% above it. The reaction has been quite strong, with the daily candle collecting all the decline and turning upward. Today's and tomorrow's daily closes will be significant.

For February, monthly implied volatility is 34.2%, while weekly is 14.92%. This range appears to be between 67k and 137k. We've observed decreased volatility in BTC over recent months. Weekly implied volatility of 14.92% suggests a price range of 83k-112k.

The price moved 6.3% down from the monthly opening, then 5% up from the weekly opening, resulting in 11.3% volatility. We can expect to spend this week within this price range. However, I believe price will move upward during pullbacks. I'm expecting an increase up to at least 113-118k region. Not this week certainly, but I anticipate such movement within this month

Ethereum
ETH closed January with 24.7% volatility, showing high 21% volatility in the final week. Price movement has been quite heavy and significantly underperforming against Bitcoin. During the recent decline, they experienced 15-30% drops along with other altcoins. Currently trading 17% below monthly opening and 4.5% below weekly opening.

February's monthly implied volatility average is 48.5%, corresponding to the 1700-4900 range. Weekly implied volatility average is 19.1%, matching the 2300-3400 range. Indeed, with a 35.8% drop from monthly opening and 26.2% from weekly opening, most of these volatilities have been consumed. In fact, more than January's total volatility.

Despite the sharp decline, ETH appears to have recovered quickly to a certain extent, saving the candle structure from a bearish appearance. I favor being a buyer on pullbacks below 2600. Especially the 2300-2500 region is quite good for positioning. Since I didn't expect such rapid recovery, I was waiting for purchases. I'll wait for purchases during pullbacks to this region.

ETHBTC
With the sharp decline, we also saw drops in the ETHBTC chart. It had been showing price movements around 0.03 for a long time, signaling potential decline with lower peaks. With staying below 0.03, it sharply dropped to 0.023 region and showed quick recovery again. While another movement toward those regions wouldn't be surprising, I don't expect new lows and think we should look for bottom structure now. After staying above 0.033, I expect sharp rises to begin toward and above the 0.04 region.

Bitcoin has only closed red twice in February, in 2014 and 2020. ETH has only closed red in 2018. What are your thoughts on how this month will progress?
#TariffHODL #MarketRebound #crashmarket

Yes, we've finally reached the last moments of the countdown, seeing the last digit '1'. The last week of the last month. As I expected last week, we witnessed a market-shaking decline. I've been writing for the last 3 weeks trying to warn you. Year-end and quarterly closings don't happen extremely high or low. If there were sharp rises or falls before, it will make its correction before closing. This week, similarly, I don't expect very high volume. With holidays in many places, I don't think we'll see extreme movements as the market is left to retail users. You can access my previous writing through my profile.
Bitcoin

On December 27th, the last Friday of this year, the yearly contract will close, and we'll see approximately $13.7 billion in Notional Value contracts expiring. After that, until New Year's, the market will likely remain quite inactive or might cause erratic movements to trigger stops for retail investors. Therefore, it might be more logical to use this period for relaxation or planning. Although we saw average volatility last week, monthly volatility remained well below expectations.

BTC started the week with a decline and is trading below its monthly opening. The monthly candle structure doesn't look very promising for an upward movement in its current state. We might see a series of declines until mid-January. Looking at this week's candle also suggests the decline will continue. I don't think the 92k bottoms will work as support anymore; 87k and the 77-80k region look good for buying. This week's implied volatility range is 110k-80k.

This week's Put/Call Ratio increased slightly to 0.68. Additionally, the Max Pain Price is at 84k. The fact that approximately $13.7 billion worth of contracts would suffer maximum losses at this price shows we should remain cautious.

Ethereum
The Notional Value of ETH contracts expiring on December 27th is approximately $3.8 billion. ETH, which remained much weaker than BTC during the recent decline, looks a bit stronger this week. It's trying to maintain the $3300 level. Monthly-wise, it has a relatively better appearance, but it's still not a very confident structure. A breakout creating a candle like November's wouldn't be surprising, nor would attempting to fill the gap in the 2800 region. Therefore, January might be good for volatility trading. During the decline, we saw volatility higher than implied volatility.

ETH, which fell below its monthly opening last week with the double top formation, started this week with an increase. Although the 3250 region seems to work well as support, it's quite likely for the price to go to 3700 and then attempt another low. Therefore, 3000 and the 2800 region shown by the blue box are areas I'm watching as support. This week's implied volatility is 3900-2650.

This week's Put/Call Ratio increased slightly to 0.4 but remains quite positive. The Max Pain Price is at $3000. However, there's a much higher Put/Call Ratio of 0.96 for the first 10 days of January. I also want to create a volatility trade for the first half of January. There's an expectation of a decline for when Trump takes office.

ETHBTC

My expectation was that it wouldn't close candles below the 0.0349 region and would form an Inverse H&S pattern, but this structure was broken with recent declines and daily closings. But I'm not losing hope. It looks like a weekly double bottom pattern might form. The weekly and monthly structure still appears inclined to turn positive. The fact that it hasn't reached the last low is quite positive for me. Therefore, I'll now take my upward positions on the ETH side with more confidence. I won't stop being cautious until it moves above the purple box.

#ChristmasMarketAnalysis #BTCNextMove #USUALAnalysis #LastWeekInCrypto

The Last Month of the Year, Last Half of the Last Month

This week has been relatively stagnant with the price generally moving up and down. We've entered the most critical week of the month for the market. With the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate decisions, this week is particularly crucial. While a 25 basis point reduction is expected with 99% probability, inflationary statements might cause market pullbacks.

Bitcoin
Crypto and BTC started the week with a decline, then moved towards its weekly opening, and we saw a pump before closing. It could be a classic move for the price to rise until the FED announcement and then fall afterward with the statements. Generally, the market tends to move in one direction until the news and then reverse afterward. Therefore, it's important to be cautious. It seems more logical to make purchases with gradual pullbacks until Trump becomes president and then let it run its course.

As I mentioned last week, opening the year too high might bring a sharp decline at the beginning of the new year. Or we might expect contrary movements like a sharp upward movement in the new year if it falls too much. This week's implied volatility range is 88.5k - 120.5k.

Ethereum

ETH, which opened November at 2500 and December at 3700, is testing the 4000 resistance. After a sharp sell-off at the beginning of the week, it's slowly climbing up but still hasn't met expectations due to its weakness against BTC. I think the price will move more sharply with sustainability above 4100, but I believe it should proceed with confirmation. One shouldn't move too confidently before 4-hour and daily closings.

This week's Put/Call Ratio is 0.51, and the max pain price appears to be 3700. Implied volatility can be expected similar to last week at 3200-4700.

ETHBTC

Although weakness continues, as I mentioned last week, it looks positive as long as it stays above 0.0348. I think the main movement will progress when it stays above the purple box of 0.042.

#December2024 #BTCNewATH #ETHHits4KAgain #BitcoinKeyZone #FedRateDecisions

As we enter the 2nd week of December, we have left behind a week where the price was less volatile than the previous active month and the candles got smaller. I think the price will not make very sharp movements due to the end of the year and the end of the 4th quarter. I think the price will look for a place for itself a little more due to the possibility that the price will close very high and the sellers will load in the new year and month and the buyers will press very hard. It is likely to form a range with an up and down movement.
Bitcoin
We are in a phase where the price movement has slowed down considerably and the price is now starting to form a range.

I would consider it normal for the price to pull back to 15%. I expect the BTC price to enter the end of the month close to a price around this price. In pullbacks up to 82k, a contract can be purchased for the end of January.

Our implied volatility range this week is between 85.5k and 117k.

Ethereum
ETH, which touched its March 2024 peak for the first time after a long break, did not make a very sharp move, although it experienced a sell-off from here.

I think that ETH, which is still above the monthly opening, can find first supports at 3550-3600 and a good support again at 3300.

This week's implied volatility is 3250-4750.

ETHBTC
There is no change in the situation, it still has not been able to get above the purple box, but it looks very good. I think that an upward movement will come as long as it does not fall below 0.0384.

#MicroStrategyAcquiresBTC #December #AltSeasonBoom?