Unfortunately, I have not been able to publish monthly and weekly data for a while. For this reason, let's take a general look at May and see the situation.
The price has been neither going up nor down for a few weeks and indecision is increasing. The fact that BTC has been at the peak of ETH under significant resistance leaves people in the middle between a sharp correction or an increase. I do not see any signs that this region is the top yet. The fact that the classic ladder structure continues right now and the price does not willingly go up or down is very bullish and does not show a peak structure. Such a statement is not true when no market structure is broken and there is no HTF weakness. Yes, the markets are uncertain due to policy inflation and interest rates, but I also think that the uncertainty here should not be considered the market.
Although the movement in BTC is not as strong as ETH, it still looks good. However, due to both the beginning of the month and the weakness in the recent structures, I think it will make a correction and the price may pull back to the 98k region. If you take a broader view of the chart and look at it with a weekly time frame, you can see that the last candlestick structures are not very good and there could be a potential double top. I think that the price will start to rise with the rumors of double tops and the increase in panic when it reaches the 98k or maybe 91k region next week. Of course, we can go from here without any correction and call it a classic BTC bull and look back, but this scenario seems more logical to me since uncertainty is so effective and monetary policies are still not loosening. If we see dovish statements in the FED interest rate decision and the discourses before it in 19 days, I think we will have very good months ahead of us.
Monthly implied volatility in ETH seemed to be 70% due to the 2017 pump. If we did not add the data from that date, implied volatility could be expected as 50%. ETH both gave people hope again and gained some strength with a move of up to 58%. We see that we have seen a bottom formation in ETHBTC and maybe there may be another bottom attempt. Frankly, I do not expect this movement very much due to the V-shaped image, but I keep it among the possibilities.
The monthly image is quite bullish, it seems to have a weekly image that is prone to a bit of correction. The important points on my charts have been fixed for months. One of them is the red line 2500 and the blue box in the 2800-2900 area. As I mentioned before, it is not right to dream too much before these areas are completely broken. We still have not seen a good weekly close above 2500. For this reason, I will start positioning upwards in the correction that will come with the new month. The 2480-2300-2100 areas will be my buy points for upward positions. This is my general plan.
In summary, although the possibility of the price moving sharply in both directions is taken into account, it does not change the fact that our direction is up. For this reason, if you are in between, it may make sense to establish two-way positions. Yes, it will be a little more costly, but you will reduce your risk and the possibility of missing the move. Positioning in a two-way direction between 8-10% on a monthly basis may make sense.
Good days to all of you in the new month