大仙说币

The U.S. stock market experienced significant gains last Friday, with all three major indices rising. The S&P 500 index performed particularly well, closing higher for the ninth consecutive trading day, setting the longest winning streak in nearly 20 years. Behind this surge are two key driving forces: first, a better-than-expected non-farm payroll report alleviated market concerns about a possible economic slowdown; second, there are signs of easing in U.S.-China trade relations, boosting market optimism.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs in April, significantly exceeding the market's expectation of 138,000. Although this figure is slightly lower than the revised 185,000 in March, it remains strong. This report effectively alleviated market concerns about a rapid deterioration in the U.S. economy, thereby boosting investor risk appetite.

On the 22nd, U.S. President Trump stated at the White House that tariffs imposed on China will be significantly reduced. Although he emphasized that they will not drop to zero, his attitude has softened. This sudden change in stance may be a response to U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's previous comments about the unsustainability of high tariffs on China. Mnuchin had previously said in an interview that negotiations with China would be very difficult, and both sides believe that the current situation is unsustainable. This comment quickly became headline news in European and American media, showing that the market is highly concerned about the possibility of cooling the China-U.S. trade war.
　　
　　In addition to the cooling of the China-U.S. trade war, Trump's recent concentrated fire on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates has caused the market to worry about the Fed's independence being at risk. However, yesterday, Trump also changed his tone, stating that he has no intention of firing Powell and only hopes to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts.

Over the weekend, there were no significant news events impacting cryptocurrencies, aside from the situation between Ukraine and Russia. To summarize the intelligence briefly: Ukraine accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposal from U.S. President Trump last month, but after the Russian side rejected it, both sides only agreed to limit attacks on energy facilities and maritime operations, while accusing each other of violating the agreement.

On the other hand, the U.S. stock market was closed yesterday due to Easter. Bitcoin prices did not show significant fluctuations, remaining within a narrow range of $84,000 to $85,000, with the latest quote at $84,600, down 0.56% in the last 24 hours.

The Trump administration maintains an 'open' attitude towards negotiating for lower tariffs, and has revealed that nearly 70 countries, including Japan and South Korea, have contacted the White House regarding tariff issues, suggesting that U.S. stocks may soon reach friendly negotiations with some countries.

Starting April 9, U.S. time, an additional 84% tariff will be imposed on all imported goods from China. Coupled with previous tariffs, the total tariff rate on almost all Chinese goods exported to the U.S. will skyrocket to an astonishing 104%. This news hit the market like a shock wave, causing the rebound that had occurred due to negotiation expectations to vanish instantly, spreading panic and leading to a significant drop in the stock market at the close. The market generally believes that such a high tariff is almost equivalent to a trade fortress, and the U.S.-China trade standoff has reached an unprecedented level of intensity.

The eye-catching tariff policy was announced by U.S. President Trump at 4 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, after the closing of the U.S. stock market, unveiling a large-scale tariff plan that exceeded market expectations. A 10% benchmark tariff was set for global trading partners, with higher 'countervailing tariffs' imposed on certain trading partners, with China named first (34%) and Vietnam (46%) also being a focus.
The benchmark tariff rate of [10%] will take effect on April 5, and the countervailing tariffs will take effect at 4 a.m. on April 9. Except for pharmaceuticals, copper, semiconductors, lumber, precious metals such as gold and silver, energy, and specific mineral resources that cannot be obtained within the U.S. are not included in this round of tariffs. The White House stated that the tariffs imposed on China are an increase on the existing 20% tariffs previously applied to Chinese imports, which means that the effective tariff rate on China is 54%.

Due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy and the stubborn inflation in the US, the performance of cryptocurrencies and US stocks has been disappointing in the first quarter of this year. On April 1, QCP released a report summarizing on its official Telegram channel, stating that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index all recorded the worst quarterly performance in nearly three years in the first quarter of this year. The second quarter also started under pressure, with over $160 billion evaporated from the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market since last Friday, highlighting the severe situation faced at the start of the second quarter.

Last night after the US stock market opened, due to many investors focusing on Trump's upcoming announcement of a new round of tariff policies at 2 AM Eastern Time on April 2, market trading was relatively quiet. The four major indices closed slightly higher, with only the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down slightly by 0.03%.

Bitcoin reached a peak of over $85,000 during the recently concluded weekend but failed to stabilize and continue rising. This morning, it fell again to a low of $81,980, and as of the time of writing, it is quoted at $94,054, with a 24-hour increase of approximately 1.74%. Other top ten tokens also fell in sync, with Ethereum striving to stabilize above $1,900, down 1.37% in the last 24 hours. The biggest drop was seen in SOL, currently quoted at $128.4, down nearly 6.16% in the last 24 hours.
This week, global financial markets are focused on the upcoming interest rate decision meetings in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Although the market generally expects the three central banks to maintain interest rates, the different economic growth and inflation pressures faced by each country mean that officials' statements and policy hints will become the focus of the market.

On the 2nd, U.S. President Trump dropped a bombshell, announcing that Ripple, SOL, and ADA would be included in the U.S. cryptocurrency strategic reserve plan. Amidst the market's jubilation, Bitcoin's price surged 10%, but market share subsequently plummeted, falling below the critical 50% mark. Although Trump later emphasized that Bitcoin and Ethereum remain core assets of the cryptocurrency reserves, the news led to a significant 'fund migration' in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's market share dropping from 55.4% to 48.84% within just a few hours.

Meanwhile, competing cryptocurrencies rose across the board, with ADA soaring 60.3%; Ripple also surged 34.7%; SOL increased by 25.5% and Ethereum by 13.1%. It is worth noting that other unnamed competing coins also rose simultaneously, in contrast, Bitcoin's increase was relatively low, barely 10%. However, it must be said that Trump's announcement had quite an amazing effect, as Bitcoin surged directly by $10,000 from around $85,000 within just two hours, peaking close to $95,000 before two o'clock. As of the drafting time, it had retraced, quoted at $90,500, with the daily increase narrowing to 5.2%.

The US President earlier emphasized at a White House press conference that comprehensive tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect as scheduled after a one-month delay, leading to risk-averse sentiment in the market. Meanwhile, due to the continuous decline of Nasdaq futures in tech stocks and the strengthening of the yen driven by expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, concerns over risk aversion have arisen. As a result, Bitcoin began a new wave of decline around 6 AM today, plummeting to around $90,850 by 8 AM, marking a new low since January 13. Ethereum also followed suit, with a quote of $87,812 at the time of writing, down nearly 3.84% in the past 24 hours.

On the evening of the 12th, the cryptocurrency market briefly fell into panic due to the U.S. stock market's consumer price index for January exceeding expectations. The data showed that the CPI increased by 0.5% monthly, the largest monthly increase in nearly two years, deepening market concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts. However, as the market calmed down and digested the data, investor panic began to cool. It became clear that more economic indicators were needed to confirm the inflation trend.　　

　　Regarding Bitcoin, influenced by the CPI data, Bitcoin once fell to $94,000 but quickly recovered its losses, breaking through $98,000 at 6:30 AM today, peaking at $98,120, rebounding 4.29% from the evening low, and recovering 2.3% in the last 24 hours.　　

First of all, I wish all investors a prosperous new year, family happiness, and career advancement. May you have a smooth journey in your investment path, with every trade profitable.

At 3 AM Beijing time tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision. Immediately after, at 3:30 AM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech. Given the current economic situation and the general market expectations, this interest rate decision is likely to maintain the status quo, while the content of Powell's speech will become the market's focus. Powell's speech may lean towards a dovish stance and may mention whether to end the current balance sheet reduction policy early, as well as the frequency and timing of future interest rate cuts.