Due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy and the stubborn inflation in the US, the performance of cryptocurrencies and US stocks has been disappointing in the first quarter of this year. On April 1, QCP released a report summarizing on its official Telegram channel, stating that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index all recorded the worst quarterly performance in nearly three years in the first quarter of this year. The second quarter also started under pressure, with over $160 billion evaporated from the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market since last Friday, highlighting the severe situation faced at the start of the second quarter.
Last night after the US stock market opened, due to many investors focusing on Trump's upcoming announcement of a new round of tariff policies at 2 AM Eastern Time on April 2, market trading was relatively quiet. The four major indices closed slightly higher, with only the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down slightly by 0.03%.
In the cryptocurrency market, around 10 PM last night, there was a sharp drop to $82,500, but it quickly rebounded along with the US stock market, reaching a peak in the morning of $85,555, and is currently retreating, quoted at $84,579, with a 24-hour increase of 0.61%.
Key events to watch this week: The market's pullback over the weekend was mainly due to large-scale options expiring at the end of the quarter, leading to market sell-offs as traders actively sold, causing perpetual contract funding rates to shift from flat to negative. At the same time, the deleveraging of the cryptocurrency market coincided with macro data that brought new impacts. Core inflation data was higher than expected, confirming that inflation remains stubborn in February.
Although April is usually a month with relatively good returns for cryptocurrencies, caution is still needed. Besides the tariff policies that Trump will announce at 3 AM Beijing time on April 3, key events to watch this week include Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing PMI; Thursday's ISM Services PMI; and Friday's non-farm payroll data, unemployment rate, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech.
Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator in the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current price is running near the middle band and has slightly broken upwards, indicating an upward trend in the short term. If the price continues to operate along the upper band, it may rise further, but caution is needed for the risks brought by news at 3 AM.
Secondly, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H chart, the DIF line and DEA line are running near the 0 axis and are turning downwards, showing a trend of forming a death cross, which is typically a bearish signal. The MACD red histogram is also gradually shortening, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening and bearish forces are approaching.
Finally, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H chart, the K line value and D line value have entered the overbought area and are crossing downwards in the overbought area to form a death cross pattern, which is usually seen as a signal of impending bearishness. Subsequent prices may pull back.
Bitcoin One-Hour Chart
First, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the price has previously broken through the upper band and then retreated, currently running between the middle band and the lower band. This indicates a short-term adjustment phase. If the price can effectively stabilize above the middle band, it may challenge the upper band again; if it fails to stabilize effectively at the upper band, it may pull back to the lower band.
Secondly, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the DIF line and DEA line are running above the 0 axis and have formed a death cross pattern, accompanied by the MACD histogram turning from red to green, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening, and a pullback is possible in the short term.
Finally, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 1H chart, the K line value and D line value are at a relatively low position but have not entered the oversold area. If the KDJ three-line values form a golden cross pattern, a short-term rebound may occur; if it continues to move downward, the speed of the decline may accelerate.
In summary, Bitcoin's price is likely to oscillate between 83900-84600 in the short term. In the 4H chart, the MACD indicator shows that the DIF line and DEA line have formed a death cross pattern, accompanied by a shortening of the red histogram, which suggests caution against pullback risks. Although the KDJ indicator in the 1H chart has not entered the oversold area, the MACD indicator has also formed a death cross pattern, indicating that bearish momentum is strengthening.
In conclusion, the expert provides the following suggestions for reference.
Suggestion One: Short Bitcoin when it rebounds to 84800-85000, with a stop loss at 85500 and a target of 83800-83300.
Suggestion Two: Long Bitcoin when it pulls back to 83000-83300, with a stop loss at 82600 and a target of 85000-85500.
A 100% accurate suggestion is not as valuable as providing you with a correct mindset and trend. After all, teaching a man to fish is better than giving him a fish. Suggestions may yield short-term gains, but learning the right approach can earn you a lifetime! The focus should be on the mindset, grasping trends, and planning positions in the market. What I can do is use my practical experience to assist everyone, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.
Writing time: (2025-04-02, 16:10)
(Written by - Expert on Cryptocurrency) This is to declare: Network publications have delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, stocks, etc., having been involved in financial markets for many years and possessing rich practical operational experience. Investing involves risks, and caution is needed when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the expert on cryptocurrency for discussions and exchanges.#美国加征关税
