First of all, I wish all investors a prosperous new year, family happiness, and career advancement. May you have a smooth journey in your investment path, with every trade profitable.
At 3 AM Beijing time tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision. Immediately after, at 3:30 AM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech. Given the current economic situation and the general market expectations, this interest rate decision is likely to maintain the status quo, while the content of Powell's speech will become the market's focus. Powell's speech may lean towards a dovish stance and may mention whether to end the current balance sheet reduction policy early, as well as the frequency and timing of future interest rate cuts.
In addition, the friendly attitude shown by U.S. President Trump towards cryptocurrencies has made the vision of 'the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve' likely to become a reality. Moreover, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming, who has long supported cryptocurrencies and suggested at last year's Bitcoin 2024 conference that the U.S. should purchase 1 million BTC within five years, announced on the 23rd of this month that she was elected as the chair of the Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee, further enhancing the possibility of the U.S. establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First of all, based on the Bollinger Bands indicator in the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current price is oscillating near the middle band. Previously, it touched the lower band and then quickly rebounded. There is still a large space between the middle and upper bands, while the lower band shows significant support. If the price can effectively break through the middle band and stabilize, it is likely to test the upper band pressure. If it falls below the middle band, it may test the lower band support again.
Secondly, based on the KDJ indicator in the 4H Bitcoin chart, the K and D line values are currently at a medium position, while the J line value is lower, showing a dull state. In the short term, the direction is not very clear. If the KDJ three-line values turn up to form a golden cross, it may bring about a wave of upward trend; conversely, if it turns down to form a death cross, the price will continue to adjust downward.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator in the 4H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line is still below the DEA line and maintains below the 0 axis, but shows a slight convergence trend. The MACD red histogram is gradually increasing, indicating that the previous downward momentum is waning, and the market may enter a phase of oscillation and adjustment. If the DIF line breaks through the DEA line to form a golden cross, it will bring about a wave of rebound trend.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the current market is in a phase of oscillation and repair. Although bearish momentum has weakened, there are still no clear bullish signals. If the Bitcoin price stabilizes above the 4H middle band at 102500, it may further attack the 104000-106000 area. If it breaks below the 100000 lower band support, the price may further pull back to around 98000.
In summary, the master provides the following suggestions for reference
Short-sell Bitcoin around 102300-102500, with a target of 100300 and a stop-loss at 103000. (To avoid severe fluctuations caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Powell's speech, it is advisable to avoid the market.)
Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, it's better to provide you with a correct mindset and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish. Suggestions may earn you temporarily, but learning the right mindset can help you earn for a lifetime! The focus is on the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning the market layout and positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, guiding your investment decisions and business management in the right direction.
Submission time: (2025-01-30, 00:30)
(Written by - Master Says Coin) This is a statement: Online publications have delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in investment areas such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, and stocks, having been involved in the financial market for many years, with rich practical experience. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the master and discuss together. #特朗普加密政令