On the evening of the 12th, the cryptocurrency market briefly fell into panic due to the U.S. stock market's consumer price index for January exceeding expectations. The data showed that the CPI increased by 0.5% monthly, the largest monthly increase in nearly two years, deepening market concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts. However, as the market calmed down and digested the data, investor panic began to cool. It became clear that more economic indicators were needed to confirm the inflation trend.
Regarding Bitcoin, influenced by the CPI data, Bitcoin once fell to $94,000 but quickly recovered its losses, breaking through $98,000 at 6:30 AM today, peaking at $98,120, rebounding 4.29% from the evening low, and recovering 2.3% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current price is fluctuating near the middle band and close to the lower band, indicating that the price may break downward in the short term. If the price further breaks below the lower band, a downward trend may occur. If the price rebounds back above the middle band, attention should be paid to the potential reversal of the market.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, both the K-value and D-value are at relatively low levels, showing a downward crossing phenomenon, indicating that there may be a continuation of the downward trend in the short term. Additionally, the J-value is below the 50 level, indicating that the current market is in a strong downward trend. However, there is also the possibility of being oversold, and the opportunity for a short-term rebound still exists.
Finally, based on the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, both the DIF line and DEA line are below the zero axis and maintaining a downward trend, indicating strong bearish forces in the market. At the same time, the MACD green histogram is gradually shortening, showing signs of a certain weakening of bearish forces. If the DIF line and DEA line rise and break through the zero axis, it may indicate a market reversal.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the price has just rebounded from the lower band but is still below the middle band, indicating that the market remains weak in the short term. The upper middle band and upper band are forming resistance. If the price cannot break through the middle band, it may continue to fluctuate downward. There were signs of a rebound near the lower band; if the price continues to test the lower band without breaking it, it indicates short-term support may be forming.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, both the K-value and D-value are at low levels, indicating that the current market is in an overbought state, with the possibility of a rebound. The J-value has also risen. If the KDJ three-line values cross upwards to form a golden cross signal, the probability of a short-term increase will greatly increase.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are still running below the zero axis, but recently the MACD green histogram has been gradually shortening, indicating that bearish momentum has weakened. If the DIF line and DEA line cross upwards to form a golden cross signal, a rebound may begin in the short term. If a dead cross signal forms again, it may continue the downward trend.
Comprehensive analysis: currently, the market is in a state of consolidation, with prices fluctuating near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD shows strong bearish momentum, but the KDJ has signs of a short-term rebound. If the price breaks below the lower band, it may continue to decline. If the price breaks above the upper band or if the MACD starts to rise, it may turn into an upward trend.
In summary, the expert provides the following suggestions for reference
Bitcoin rebounded to around 96,000 with light short positions, add short positions at 96,300-96,500, targeting 94,500-95,000, with a stop loss at 96,800.
It’s better to give you a correct mindset and trend than to give you a hundred percent accurate advice. After all, teaching a person to fish is better than giving them fish. Advice may help you earn for a moment, but learning the right mindset can help you earn for a lifetime! What matters is the mindset, understanding the trend, and planning the market layout and position. What I can do is use my practical experience to assist everyone, helping your investment decisions and management to be on the right track.
Writing time: (2025-02-14, 01:10）
(Written by the expert) This is a declaration: Online publication has delays, and the above advice is for reference only. The author is dedicated to researching and analyzing investment fields such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, and stocks, having been involved in the financial market for many years and possessing rich practical experience. Investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market. #市场清算