On the 2nd, U.S. President Trump dropped a bombshell, announcing that Ripple, SOL, and ADA would be included in the U.S. cryptocurrency strategic reserve plan. Amidst the market's jubilation, Bitcoin's price surged 10%, but market share subsequently plummeted, falling below the critical 50% mark. Although Trump later emphasized that Bitcoin and Ethereum remain core assets of the cryptocurrency reserves, the news led to a significant 'fund migration' in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin's market share dropping from 55.4% to 48.84% within just a few hours.
Meanwhile, competing cryptocurrencies rose across the board, with ADA soaring 60.3%; Ripple also surged 34.7%; SOL increased by 25.5% and Ethereum by 13.1%. It is worth noting that other unnamed competing coins also rose simultaneously, in contrast, Bitcoin's increase was relatively low, barely 10%. However, it must be said that Trump's announcement had quite an amazing effect, as Bitcoin surged directly by $10,000 from around $85,000 within just two hours, peaking close to $95,000 before two o'clock. As of the drafting time, it had retraced, quoted at $90,500, with the daily increase narrowing to 5.2%.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the price started at a low of 78,258.52, showing a strong rebound and successfully breaking through the resistance of the middle Bollinger Band. The current price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band resistance level, and due to the pressure in this area, there may be a risk of price correction in the short term. With the Bollinger Band opening widening upwards, market volatility is increasing, indicating that the current market is in an upward trend. However, short-term price adjustments are also inevitable. Bitcoin has now entered a critical pressure area between 90,000 and 92,000, and if it further breaks through the upper band, it may challenge 95,000, but if it corrects, caution should be exercised regarding support near 88,000.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the K line and D line values have risen to around 80 and are approaching the overbought area, indicating that the upward momentum in the market may slow down in the short term. Additionally, the turning signs of the J line may indicate the formation of a dead cross, suggesting that the market may experience a correction in the short term. The market has entered a short-term overbought range, and there will be a need for a correction in the short term.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, both the DIF and DEA lines are operating above the 0 axis, but both values are turning down, and the MACD red histogram is also continuously shortening, indicating that the current market is in a correction state. Once the DIF line crosses down through the DEA line to form a dead cross signal, it will further confirm the downward correction trend.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart
First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the current price of Bitcoin is experiencing a strong rebound, starting from a low of 78,258 and has broken through the previous upper band, with market volatility continuing to increase. After a brief attempt to reach the high of 96,000 without success, the price is now slightly retreating and is currently consolidating near 90,000. A short-term adjustment is necessary; if the price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band support at 89,000, the market may further decline towards 87,000. However, if the lower band receives solid support, it may challenge the range of 92,000 to 94,000 again.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the K line and D line values are at a low of 30, but are not yet fully oversold, indicating that there may still be fluctuations in the short term. The J line value has shown signs of a bottom rebound, and if the K line value crosses above the D line to form a golden cross signal, a short-term rebound may occur. Conversely, if the KDJ fails to form a golden cross signal and continues to decline, the price may adjust to lower levels.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA are operating above the 0 axis and have formed a dead cross, indicating that the price is likely to move down in the short term. Meanwhile, the MACD green histogram is gradually increasing, indicating strong bearish forces, and the depth of the downward adjustment may be even lower.
Comprehensive analysis indicates that after Bitcoin's price started to rebound from a low of $78,258, it tested $96,000 without success and began to retreat, currently oscillating around $90,000. According to the 4H chart, the KDJ is about to form a dead cross signal, with the price retreating from the upper Bollinger Band to near the middle band, indicating that it is currently in a bearish trend.
In summary, the expert provides the following suggestions for reference
Suggestion one: go short Bitcoin near 90,500, target 88,000-87,000, with a stop loss at 91,000.
Suggestion two: go long Bitcoin near 87,000, target 91,000-92,000, with a stop loss at 86,500.
Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, it’s better to provide you with the correct mindset and trend. After all, teaching a person to fish is better than giving a person fish. The suggestion is to make a profit for a moment, but the mindset learned can earn a lifetime! What matters is the mindset, grasping the trend, planning the market, and managing positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone and guide your investment decisions and business management in the right direction.
Drafting time: (2025-03-04, 01:30)
(Written by - Expert on Cryptocurrency) This is to declare: Online publication has delays, the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in investment fields such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, and stocks, with years of experience in the financial market and rich hands-on experience. Investment involves risks; proceed with caution. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the expert’s account to discuss and exchange ideas together. #美国加密战略储备