2025-08-15

Today I went to mess around with changing the property certificate, then got a haircut, came back late.

I took a look, the market has turned into a consolidation pattern, ETH needs to return above 4650 to be a strong bullish signal. There was a double bottom position at 4454, and below that is 4404. Currently, it is in a 4-hour level correction. If it drops below 4404, it will enter a daily correction. A higher bottom has formed at 4543-4532; if this level is tested again and does not break, the trend will still lean towards a bullish consolidation. Closing above 4650 once would be a signal to return to a strong bullish trend.

Bitcoin looks relatively better; the previous resistance at 1191-1193 has become a barrier again, and 1205 is also a resistance. The switching of support and resistance works this way; the market doesn't have much money to push Bitcoin up, and we still need to place our hopes on ETFs and MicroStrategy. Those borderline companies don’t really help.

If Bitcoin can stabilize again in the 1170-1175 range, it can be a good entry point; if it continues to decline, it drops to 1157-1161 for an additional position. If it breaks down further, just stop-loss immediately.

SOL needs to return above 195 and close once in the 4-hour timeframe without breaking down to confirm the bullish dominance. If it continues to be suppressed, there is a probability to test 187 again, which has already been tested twice. At this point, it’s better to observe more and be cautious.

Currently, it cannot be said that it has reversed back to bearish; it has risen for so long without a correction or pullback, which is unrealistic. Sometimes crouching down is to jump higher. However, it should be noted that generally speaking, the more a position is tested, the weaker it becomes. This is also based on the relationship between volume and price. If the same position is touched multiple times, it will weaken buyers' confidence. The double bottom position is currently the strongest support. If it cannot push above, this position can only be used once more. This means that if there is another pullback to the previously tested bottom position, there will be only one chance left: either it closes above, or when it comes back, that bottom position will have an 80% chance of not holding.

But it's still a bit early to be pessimistic; after all, the bottom is still being raised. Friends holding altcoins should be more cautious, and if there are profits, they should reduce their holdings. For those trapped, be prepared to hedge.

Tomorrow night I will go live to play, everyone is welcome to join in the fun.