2025-08-22 Nightline

Today I saw the grasslands of Ulaanqab, and I also saw a volcanic crater, over 1000 kilometers away from home. I can't get back in one night, so I checked into a hotel. Tomorrow I will continue back, my heart is eager to return. To be honest, traveling really can be done without self-driving; try to avoid self-driving as much as possible. Every day is about rushing, which is actually quite exhausting.

Last night, I was worried about Old Bao and the eagle, but nothing happened. Instead, I had a rare moment of calm. A rate cut in September was originally a high-probability event. A 50 basis point cut is unlikely; after a 25 basis point cut, without changing the dot plot, there will only be a 25 basis point cut left. Once it’s all done, we really need to be extremely cautious afterward. If there’s a cut in September, then the next likely cut will be in November. According to the original rate cut plan, if we cut this time, that would mean 3/4 is done. Look at the shackled counterfeit spot you hold; you really need to make early plans.

Tonight is a concentrated release of emotions. After this release, there often follows a quick reversal. If you didn’t have a position during the recent downturn, there’s no need to feel too bad, because Old Bao has essentially clarified the short-term direction. So next, it will just be about adding more positions on the pullbacks. For the positions entered, try not to exit too quickly. In short waves, it will lead to increasingly unfavorable entry prices, back and forth, and the final result is likely a short-term reversal at a high position, wiping out the profits from the previous short waves all at once. You can hold a larger position and then add some positions on each pullback, maintaining the difference between your holding price and the current price, which is relatively safer.

Ethereum is really strong here. If it maintains a strong bullish trend, the pullback might just hit around 4532 or 4488. If the institutions are happy, they might push it all night, and that’s fine; after all, compared to Bitcoin, it’s still much lighter.

Bitcoin is still closing around 1155~1157, then looking at 1191~1193. If there’s a closing reversal, pay attention to the situations around 1148 and 1143. As long as the price stays above 1135, the bulls are still solid.

SOL directly hit the first target with one candle; if it closes, pay attention to the situation around 187. The 4-hour chart can support seeing the price at 200, but there is still considerable resistance around 195-197.

It has surged too much; I do not recommend chasing at this price; missing out is better suited for waiting for a pullback.