Hoping for a decent pullback to establish a bottom for future markets, the market finally crashed after multiple inducements to go long. Bitcoin directly broke below the previous daily volatility low of 116,000 points, and Ethereum is infinitely close to the strong support level of 3530 points, the starting point of daily bullish resonance, while the altcoin market is in a dire state.
The adjustment after the surge in Bitcoin that began in early July has seen daily volatility of less than 5% in the last half month. The brief explosion of Ethereum drove a small climax in the altcoin market. Until today, Bitcoin's daily level has broken through the range, and the gap near 114,000 points in CME has been directly filled. However, in contrast to the last month and the previous two instances of breaking below 116,000 points, the dips on July 15 and 25 saw a significant increase in trading volume, and the market subsequently pulled back to high levels. This time, there was no significant volume, and the willingness to buy visibly decreased.
I see many partners saying that the current situation is caused by Trump's new tariffs. Objectively, I believe that Trump's tariff policy is just a catalyst. Before this catalyst emerged, the daily high points of Bitcoin kept moving downwards, and Ethereum formed a daily death cross after divergence. All signs indicate that we are facing a signal for a market adjustment. However, during this process, the strong inflow of macro data has given the market immense confidence, and the actual impact of the tariffs has become quite limited.
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum is significantly stronger at this stage. The open interest of CME contracts for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased by about 10%. This data can be seen as an increased willingness to correct, but it doesn't provide a clear evidence of a market crash. In terms of chip structure, before Ethereum breaks below the 3530 mark on the daily chart, it can be regarded as a range-bound oscillation, and the trading value is not significant.
Ethereum's micro-strategy DYNX currently has ETH reserves surpassing Ethereum Foundation, following BMNR and SBET, with costs of 3810 USD, 3755 USD, and 3011 USD respectively. Ethereum at around 3600 points is now at least three percentage points lower than the average price of off-exchange institutions, which can be seen as a signal that Ethereum will not easily replicate the previous three instances where it could not break through 4000 points and subsequently crashed.
At 2 AM yesterday, the Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision came in line with market expectations, maintaining the interest rate. The turning point of risk came with Powell's speech afterward, which showed almost no signals for a rate cut in September, triggering market panic. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 65% before the speech to 45%.
Tonight at 8:30, the U.S. unemployment rate data of 4.2% met market expectations. Non-farm employment was greater than the previous value but less than expected, and the consumer confidence index at 10 PM was 61.7, lower than expectations and the previous value. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 75%, reaching the peak prediction for this data.
ETF data has recently eased, with Bitcoin spot ETF seeing a net outflow of 115 million USD yesterday, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 17 million USD. Ethereum data has seen a net inflow for 20 consecutive trading days, but short-term data has sharply decreased. Stocks have continued to decline sharply in the last two days, exerting strong pressure on the crypto market. Relevant data can be linked to monitor comprehensive assessments in the coming days.
The future trend of Ethereum, besides the strategic buying of Ethereum-related micro-strategies and the strength of ETFs mentioned above, is also supported by the RWA sector, which accounts for over 70% of the Ethereum ecosystem. The previous bull market's ability of Ethereum to lead the way was due to its new narrative and its repeated overturning of this market.
When it comes to the future narrative of RWA, the breakdown is that Ethereum L1 holds 50% market share, followed by Ethereum L2 zksync at around 20%. Combined, they account for 70%, while the ecosystems of Aptos, Solana, and Stellar cumulatively do not exceed 30%. The applications within the ecosystem determine the height of the future. The reason why large holders, who were heartbroken by Ethereum last year, are refocusing their attention lies here.
The market's repeated high-level fluctuations can easily cause people to lose direction, especially for short-term players. By extending the time frame, the monthly chart shows that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have strong momentum. The previous highs of 123,000 for Bitcoin and 3940 for Ethereum are not the highest positions of the year. The necessary adjustments in the short-term market do not currently show catastrophic signals for a major drop. Cherish every significant drop in the bull market process; I still haven't been able to execute my Ethereum orders.
The golden pit created by the K-line is a wealth pool filled with courage and vision. After Bitcoin surged again at the beginning of last month, we sold part of our Bitcoin and made appropriate exchanges before Ethereum's launch. Even if we didn't hit the best buy point at that time, we were ahead of many institutions. Only those who dare to bend down to pick up chips during a crash are qualified to stand and count money after a reversal. Moreover, we still don't know if the market will give us another chance at the best buy point!
BTC: The low point after Bitcoin's pullback from 115,000 points has been described for at least half a month. Every drop has caught the market off guard with its feedback and sentiment. After the CME gap was filled, the uncertainties of tariffs linked to the macro environment and the power struggle between Trump and the Federal Reserve have brought market uncertainty. This bottom adjustment and foundation laying is expected to take some time. An extreme viewpoint is a brief downturn followed by a sharp reversal. The daily structural support at the bottom can only see 111,000 points for now, while the trend dividing line at 105,000 points is not yet visible. However, we need to monitor the bullish strength at the 115,000-point high; if the short-term bearish volume is recaptured, it will gradually diminish. Overall, the fundamental issues of Bitcoin are still manageable, and the remaining Bitcoin positions are temporarily not moving.
ETH: Ethereum is much stronger than Bitcoin. I have a bad feeling that the low point of 3300 to 3200 may not provide an opportunity for transactions, and this downturn may become the last major opportunity of the year. The previous rollercoaster at 1700 points lasted two years, and then last month, a part of Bitcoin was exchanged below 2500 points, which also did not provide opportunities. For Ethereum to deeply adjust on the daily chart, it must break below the 3530 mark; only after breaking can we look at below 3300. Let's continue to observe. If it goes down, buy the dip; if it doesn't go down, it doesn't matter.
Altcoin market: The correlation in the altcoin market has basically disappeared, and the withdrawal of funds is faster. For future altcoins, it is still recommended to exit after a significant daily bullish line; the overall structure is not beneficial. The altcoins mentioned earlier have all dropped to expected buy points, and for now, the chips in the altcoin market are sufficient. You can look back at previous discussions; the current or upcoming prices are much better value for entry than my initial points.
Other issues can be discussed in the comments.
Panic and Greed Index intraday at 65.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot assets! #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调