Today, the plan was to continue resting, but I couldn't resist everyone’s enthusiasm for the market logic. In terms of operations, all buy orders except for the lowest point were given opportunities, and all planned sell orders were also set up in the high point selling range. With the passage of the large and beautiful bill, the influx of traditional smart money has been put on the agenda.
As the market has developed to this point, the good news is that Bitcoin has broken through historical highs, and Ethereum has broken through the short-term central accumulation zone. The emotional first-phase reversal signal has been successfully established. The bad news is that the number of long-term holders of Bitcoin has begun to decline, Ethereum has not yet broken through its historical high, altcoins have seen slight increases, and the altcoin season is still a long way off.
In terms of trends, the moment Bitcoin breaks through historical highs, it no longer holds significance to predict where the top can go. Those who have Bitcoin will still buy if given the opportunity; those who don’t, whatever you say has nothing to do with them. Regarding whether the altcoin market will experience a general bull run or whether the altcoin season can come, Uncle believes an important indicator is whether Ethereum can break through its historical high, which would successfully drive a comprehensive rebound in secondary altcoins.
So, in the very short term within a week, the market's chasing risk will increase locally, and the altcoins driven by sentiment will experience slight pullbacks. However, looking at the extended cycle, high-quality projects that align with the trend will receive continuous positive market feedback after a brief adjustment, such as SOL, SUI, UNI, AAVE, etc., which have representative value in the field.
Macro-wise, last week Bitcoin's spot ETF saw a net inflow of $2.72 billion, Ethereum's spot ETF saw a net inflow of $908 million, and Ethereum achieved a continuous nine-week net inflow. The Ethereum Foundation's Ethereum holdings have also begun to be surpassed by US institutions. The so-called strategic reserves and strategic funds are real money going in!
At the end of this month, the last uncertain interest rate cut meeting will be held. Currently, under the exclusion of third-party interference, it is highly likely that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, if the Federal Reserve cannot withstand Trump's pressure, an early interest rate cut would be a sudden good news. I previously analyzed with everyone that for 'big and beautiful' to land perfectly, the interest rate cut is the key. Otherwise, before Trump’s slogan for comprehensive recovery is even shouted out, he might already be out.
Even if we have to settle for second best, this month Powell has withstood the president's pressure, and the speculation about a definite interest rate cut in September is now inevitable. Coupled with yesterday's 'rumor' of Powell’s resignation, smart money is currently unstoppable. The expansion of US debt and the catalysis of interest rate cuts make new highs in the risk market a certainty.
So, under this expectation, are retail investors large? Uncle believes that if players are fully invested in altcoins, it is fundamentally impossible to have a general bull market like the last round; the vast majority of retail investors still do not have significant profit opportunities. The purpose of garbage project teams issuing coins is to exchange our money for Bitcoin, while the purpose of the main operators raising prices is to use our capital to buy Bitcoin after we take over. Do you understand? The ultimate consensus in the market is still Bitcoin.
If you engrave the logic that all altcoins are just harvesting leeks into your mind, then only after that can there be a place for us in the local altcoin bullish market.
During the market's downward phase last month, Uncle also preemptively reduced his position in Bitcoin, focusing on adding to Ethereum and a few other tokens starting from 2500 points downward. In terms of value return, Ethereum has currently risen by 25%, and SUI has risen by over 60%. Being close to a full position and continuing to patiently wait for the trend turning point is the best choice.
Trump's rise to power, along with a series of cryptocurrency regulations, has changed the traditional Bitcoin cycle and trajectory. Historical experience seems extremely weak at this moment. The extension of the cycle combined with economic uncertainty means we can only judge based on cycle comparisons. The climax of this round of monetary easing will likely continue into early next year. Therefore, in every unknown market state, it is crucial to protect your principal and stay alive to see our own glimmer of hope.
Since the last time the market broke below 100, updates have decreased significantly. Compared to the disordered policies in the first half of Trump's presidency, the market has obviously become more regulated. Tariffs, cryptocurrency regulations, and monetary easing cycles, etc., the market's tension is moving towards being orderly. Of course, it’s also possible that Uncle has run out of talent. The technical aspects are in conflict with market-manipulated interference, and the dark adjustments in the data and public harvesting have had a significant negative impact on the construction of this circle. Fortunately, everything is moving in the direction of hope.
BTC: After breaking through, Bitcoin has broken the previous oscillation pattern. Currently, aside from holding coins, there isn't much operational space for the big coin. We can only hope for the arrival of a high-level horizontal consolidation zone for Bitcoin, and hope that the overflow of capital will drive some local altcoin trends. Currently, there is no obvious change in the trading volume as Bitcoin rises, so in the short term, we should focus on the performance of ETFs. Uncle's peak recognition for this round of the bull market is around 145,000. If the market continues to break upwards, we will start to consider gradually offloading the remaining small amount of Bitcoin chips.
ETH: Ethereum, as mentioned earlier by Uncle, has a visible height around 3500 points in mid-August, and it is currently likely to reach that level earlier this month. In terms of funding, even if Ethereum breaks 3000, there are still no clear signs of speculative capital. The short-term breakout comes from the pressure of outside institutional sentiment regarding Ethereum's strategic reserves, coupled with some capital transfer from Bitcoin's profit-taking. Therefore, objectively, under the current reversal conditions, after Bitcoin stabilizes at a high point, a breakout for Ethereum is a relatively good choice. Technically, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has dropped back down, with a clear pressure at the 0.025 mark. The daily support level is at 2850 points, and the resistance level is at 3600 points. If given the opportunity to return to the support level, it can continue to add positions.
Altcoin market: For some parts with short-term gains exceeding 40%, be cautious about appropriate selling. Looking at the daily chart, with Bitcoin and Ethereum adjusting at high levels, this will lead to some altcoins that have increased too much from low to high to experience necessary vitality exits. When Bitcoin touches support again, it can be repurchased. For other altcoins, discussion in the comment area is ongoing, and currently, there are far more players fully invested than those in cash. Two words: 'wait for the rise.'
Discussion area for other issues.
Fear and greed index is at 74 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!
