After multiple rounds of tugging, the US cryptocurrency bill passed in the House yesterday by a narrow margin and is about to move to the next process. Powell's position at the Federal Reserve has recently been quite controversial, indicating that Trump's dissatisfaction has manifested into action. The funding injection by US-listed companies into leading investments has been considerable.
Since Ethereum broke above 2,800 points, it has approached 3,500 points in less than ten days. Since yesterday, Ethereum's contract trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin, ranking first. The incremental influx of off-market funds has grown exponentially this week. All subsequent US-listed companies planning to create strategic reserves in crypto have shifted their attention to Ethereum under Bitcoin's substantial market cap. The nearly three-year consolidation has led to a pullback after breaking 4,000, and after the recent surge, we can see that Ethereum's current position is indeed very light.
Data shows that yesterday, Bitcoin's spot ETF had a net inflow of $779 million, while Ethereum's spot ETF had a net inflow of $726 million. This inflow ranked first for Ethereum's ETF since its inception and shows clear signs of continuation today. Data can lie, and markets can deceive, but when data is combined with market trends, it becomes a solid signal.
I previously discussed a logic: for the crypto ecosystem to develop positively, there must be irreplaceable elements that can attract external funds. Bitcoin's strength comes from its consensus as the leading cryptocurrency. Ethereum, on the other hand, has evolved from smart contracts to the DeFi summer of the last bull market, and now to RWA and stablecoin funding vehicles, all of which are extensions of its application boundaries that have led to an influx of off-market funds, resulting in soaring prices and market capitalization.
Many people today are saying that Ethereum has unlimited issuance, and that in July alone, 17,000 new coins were added to circulation, leading to significant uncertainty. In fact, it seems that many haven't delved deeply into the research; Bitcoin is also currently undergoing issuance, and the actual total of 21 million coins won't be fully mined until 30 years later. Of course, this analogy is not entirely appropriate, but what I want to express is that for Ethereum, issuance is not an absolute disadvantage.
Ethereum's current staking rate is around 40% and this data is still rising. The staking for Ethereum's spot ETF is imminent. As long as the Ethereum ecosystem thrives, especially the on-chain ecosystem continues to prosper, the deflation caused by gas fees should not be a problem for the current issuance. In simple terms, the biggest real issue for the Ethereum ecosystem comes from on-chain prosperity and the positioning of L1 sovereignty.
Many partners are also asking whether we will return to the altcoin season before interest rate cuts in September, even if it's a local altcoin season? A commonality in capital markets is that trends often lead positive news; smart money enters the market first, positive news drops, and retail investors take over. Based on this principle, a small wave of local altcoin surges before September is not a big issue. A full altcoin season, however, remains unlikely. In fact, there are still quite a few altcoins with over a 40% increase this month.
Regarding the market, besides the necessary respect, we must also have hope. What is destined to come will come. This wave of E-Guardians will soon rise. At least 20 US-listed companies have publicly decided to establish strategic reserve plans for Ethereum and are raising funds externally. Holding without leverage means they are free from volatility risk and won't easily sell off; they are entering the market.
A long-standing Bitcoin whale has sold 60,000 of the 80,000 Bitcoins they held, and all of this occurred during Asian trading hours, making the seller's identity quite intriguing. Similar selling pressure before has caused the market to drop by at least 30%. This time, we are observing the signals from OTC sales. By the way, if there are reliable OTC whales, please private message me; I have a friend looking to liquidate 10,000 Bitcoins.
The mainstream market has shown significant polarization in recent days. Without considering the continued optimism for the second half of the year, the short-term reality is that old players, especially those with lower costs, are gradually selling off, while new players and new institutional whales are rushing in. The influx of buying and funds greatly exceeds the selling part. Once buying and selling reach a balance, the market is expected to experience a small cycle of volatility for consolidation. At least for now, Ethereum's massive long positions will need to dip to gain liquidity. At that time, the market will enter the next stage of upward movement.
BTC: Bitcoin is currently near the 115,000 point CME gap on the daily chart, which has not yet been filled. The daily trend actually resembles a standard high-level adjustment pattern. Unfortunately, Ethereum's strength has prevented a further pullback for accumulation. The short-term surge and subsequent drop have weakened the overall technical structure. Overall, Bitcoin is expected to continue reaching new highs, but will feel slightly weak until new liquidity is injected. The bottom is focused on the gap area between 11,300 and 11,500 points. After a synchronized pullback, tokens in the L1 ecosystem should be replenished.
ETH: The open interest in Ethereum contracts is too high. The originally expected position of 3,500 points by mid-next month has been reached in less than ten days. Both the four-hour and daily charts have divergence patterns. Those with large positions should pay attention and consider risk mitigation. On the larger trend, if Ethereum sees a daily-level adjustment, the bottom is expected in the range of 3,100 to 3,200 points, with the monthly high after consolidation around 4,200 points, corresponding to the low point in April. There are no specific recommendations for the short term; it has indeed surged a bit excessively.
Altcoin market: Wait for a wave of Ethereum adjustments before concentrating on buying more. Those who increased their positions recently should consider reducing some holdings if the risk-reward ratio is decent.
Other issues can be discussed in the comments section.
Panic and Greed Index is at 74 for the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and hoard spot assets!
