Around 6 PM, Bloomberg reported that Trump will sign an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) pension plans. Ethereum first broke through the 3,750-point resistance, and the market exploded in a short cycle. This news simply means that Trump's government's $12.5 trillion pension fund will be used to invest in risk capital, including cryptocurrencies, which represents a very strong liquidity injection.
The interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion we have been looking forward to essentially aim to inject liquidity into risk capital through a series of macro policies to achieve asset appreciation. If the operations of President Trump ultimately take effect, it will significantly contribute to raising the price of risk capital.
Data showed that the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF yesterday was $91.6 million, ending a four-day outflow trend. The spot market is basically moving in tandem with off-exchange data, and the bullish sentiment is clearly easing. The net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF was $35.1 million, which is quite normal amidst the recent continuous strong inflow trend, and it will definitely rise further in the future.
It is worth noting that during the phase when Ethereum fell from 3,800 points to 3,354 points and then rebounded back to 3,800 points, the top two holding institutions of MicroStrategy added 280,000 tokens. The handover from retail to institutional investors is that simple; a small range of panic is sufficient. Currently, institutions hold about 1.5% of the total circulating Ethereum, and the mid-term market's public plan is at least 10%, so this height can definitely inspire expectations.
Binance today released its platform reserve status for August, showing a significant increase in the accumulation of BTC, ETH, and USDT assets compared to June. The excess reserve accumulation through the platform's own profits reflects a positive outlook for the market. It is worth noting that Ethereum was significantly reduced in June, indicating that large capital has some emotional linkage in market sensitivity.
In summary, the greatest uncertainty in the market lies in how traders assess the degree of recession in the United States and the final resolution of U.S.-China tariff issues. The equivalent tariffs between the U.S. and most regions will officially take effect at midnight tonight, and what can and cannot be discussed will eventually settle over time. The release of a series of data will also fully determine the inflation impact brought about by the tariff issue, and it will eventually stabilize.
As for the recession issue, current data shows that the market only has potential concerns. The statistical errors in non-farm data or political manipulation leading to short-term excitement of economic expansion, without systemic economic problems emerging in the short term, coupled with the probability of a rate cut exceeding 93% in September, means that the chances of a black swan event will decrease. As long as the bearish factors are contained, the recession will be limited.
Lastly, an on-chain data update: over the past two weeks, addresses holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin and less than one have been steadily accumulating, and addresses holding more than 10,000 Ethereum and less than one have also been steadily accumulating. The accumulation intensity for Ethereum is far greater than the incremental data for Bitcoin. On-chain data bulk statistics often appear after market events, providing a certain retrospective reference logic, but even so, the active market demand is evident on the charts.
Ethereum's recent low-point buy orders did not provide an opportunity. In the future, watch for support at the lower edge of 3,500 points. If that fails, waiting for a high-point daily line breakthrough can also be a final entry point. Currently, my total position is 90%, and my only expectation for the market is for the bullish acceleration phase to arrive quickly, followed by gradual profit-taking to conclude this cycle perfectly.
BTC: If Bitcoin's daily line recovers above 115,000 points today, it means that the recent downward adjustment has temporarily ended, and the market will return to a wide fluctuation area defined by high point breakthroughs. From the chip structure perspective, the probability of Bitcoin achieving a bullish reversal is significantly lower than that of Ethereum, and the handover between ancient whales and new institutions has not yet ended. This part of selling pressure and demand presents considerable supply and demand uncertainty, but personally, I tend to maintain a high-level consolidation before breaking out in conjunction with Ethereum.
ETH: Ethereum only provided an opportunity at 3,530, and it seems difficult to have another chance at 3,200 before the end of the bull market. I checked the average cost of positions this evening, and it is close to 2,000. In the short term, focus on the daily chart's breakout at 4,100 points. From market sentiment, this round clearly does not resemble previous prolonged struggles followed by declines; with continuous buying from MicroStrategy, it is more likely to break out with new highs after several high-level tests. The digestion of selling pressure from previous highs requires time, but based on August's overall market, a breakthrough is inevitable. The current daily low support is 3,530 points, with a pressure range of 4,000 to 4,100 points.
Altcoin market: The sentiment in altcoins briefly rebounded during the day as Ethereum moved up slightly. In terms of sectors, AI is worth paying attention to as there are positive developments. Additionally, the old altcoins that have been mentioned before have shown a relatively optimistic uptrend today. LTC has started to perform strongly after positive news a few days ago, and LINK and DOGE are also entering a new phase. Currently, it is not advisable to focus too much on new memes as capital is not flowing in that direction; the key sector remains public chains, which will be the first cluster point for capital inflow after liquidity injection.
Other issues can be discussed in the comment section.
The fear and greed index is at 62 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and accumulate spot assets!
