三叔

Around 6 PM, Bloomberg reported that Trump will sign an executive order allowing cryptocurrencies to be included in 401(k) pension plans. Ethereum first broke through the 3,750-point resistance, and the market exploded in a short cycle. This news simply means that Trump's government's $12.5 trillion pension fund will be used to invest in risk capital, including cryptocurrencies, which represents a very strong liquidity injection.
The interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion we have been looking forward to essentially aim to inject liquidity into risk capital through a series of macro policies to achieve asset appreciation. If the operations of President Trump ultimately take effect, it will significantly contribute to raising the price of risk capital.

Hoping for a decent pullback to establish a bottom for future markets, the market finally crashed after multiple inducements to go long. Bitcoin directly broke below the previous daily volatility low of 116,000 points, and Ethereum is infinitely close to the strong support level of 3530 points, the starting point of daily bullish resonance, while the altcoin market is in a dire state.
The adjustment after the surge in Bitcoin that began in early July has seen daily volatility of less than 5% in the last half month. The brief explosion of Ethereum drove a small climax in the altcoin market. Until today, Bitcoin's daily level has broken through the range, and the gap near 114,000 points in CME has been directly filled. However, in contrast to the last month and the previous two instances of breaking below 116,000 points, the dips on July 15 and 25 saw a significant increase in trading volume, and the market subsequently pulled back to high levels. This time, there was no significant volume, and the willingness to buy visibly decreased.

After multiple rounds of tugging, the US cryptocurrency bill passed in the House yesterday by a narrow margin and is about to move to the next process. Powell's position at the Federal Reserve has recently been quite controversial, indicating that Trump's dissatisfaction has manifested into action. The funding injection by US-listed companies into leading investments has been considerable.
Since Ethereum broke above 2,800 points, it has approached 3,500 points in less than ten days. Since yesterday, Ethereum's contract trading volume has surpassed Bitcoin, ranking first. The incremental influx of off-market funds has grown exponentially this week. All subsequent US-listed companies planning to create strategic reserves in crypto have shifted their attention to Ethereum under Bitcoin's substantial market cap. The nearly three-year consolidation has led to a pullback after breaking 4,000, and after the recent surge, we can see that Ethereum's current position is indeed very light.

Previously, the last 15% of Ethereum that failed to buy at 2100 points has been fully purchased below three thousand today. With Ethereum stabilizing above 2800 points on the daily line, and the Ethereum Foundation losing its role as the largest holder of Ethereum, the essence of the market has changed. Thus, Uncle's average position in Ethereum has reached 1840 points, and the position ratio has exceeded that of Bitcoin, ranking first in personal assets.
Yesterday, I made it very clear when updating the content that market pullbacks provide us with opportunities. Today, as expected, it dropped, with Bitcoin's high point down 6%. The mentioned daily high altcoins also fully dipped. Those who aggressively bottom-fished in this wave generally conservatively captured a five-point profit, and objectively, Uncle believes that even if Bitcoin dips to fill the 115,000 point CME gap, the probability of most altcoins breaking previous lows is already very low.

Today, the plan was to continue resting, but I couldn't resist everyone’s enthusiasm for the market logic. In terms of operations, all buy orders except for the lowest point were given opportunities, and all planned sell orders were also set up in the high point selling range. With the passage of the large and beautiful bill, the influx of traditional smart money has been put on the agenda.
As the market has developed to this point, the good news is that Bitcoin has broken through historical highs, and Ethereum has broken through the short-term central accumulation zone. The emotional first-phase reversal signal has been successfully established. The bad news is that the number of long-term holders of Bitcoin has begun to decline, Ethereum has not yet broken through its historical high, altcoins have seen slight increases, and the altcoin season is still a long way off.

After coming back from a tour, Bitcoin remains at this position, and the long-short energy ratio of Ethereum has hardly changed, while altcoins are still sluggish. The difference between me and everyone else is that during this phase of market stagnation, I got to appreciate the beautiful landscapes of our country. Only by going out can one realize that the concept of consumption downgrade, which has been shouted for the past two years, does not exist in certain specific groups. In the future, where the market may still rise, let’s make good profits, everyone.
In the past week, the crypto market has been very lively. The DGCX, which was promoted as a stablecoin investment, has reportedly run away with 18 billion, leading to an official risk warning announcement from a key economic zone in the south. The operators have now publicly fled, arrogantly claiming they only took the money that was beyond everyone's recognition. This is the first time in four years that we've seen such arrogance in fleeing. Another piece of gossip is that DGCX did not manage to escape successfully.

The news about OKX planning to go public in the U.S. has been circulating recently. If successful, it will provide a valuable reference for the compliance journey of centralized exchanges (CEX), and the battle between crypto capital and traditional capital is about to begin. Based on the various layouts by Old Xu over the past two years, as well as the recent news, my uncle believes that Old Xu has basically secured this round.
However, for us, the most important thing is the future of OKB. My uncle believes we still need to maintain a cautious attitude. Logically, the listing of OKX is absolutely favorable for OKB, but the problem is that the positioning of platform coins in the eyes of the SEC is 'unregistered securities'; FTT is like this, and so is BNB. It has always been strange that under the excellent performance of the OKX platform and wallet, OKB has rarely had empowerment among platforms. After this news came out, everything was resolved.

The cyclical market continues to probe towards the target low point, and it seems there is no suspense at this point. The bottom of the on-chain chip concentration area has two major support points; the first is around 97,000 points, which has always been the first expectation that Uncle San believes can be reached during this round of high-level position reduction. The second position is at 83,000 points, which we can call the dividing line between bull and bear markets for Bitcoin.
The current large drop in the cycle is due to the heated conflict between Iran and Israel, especially after Trump's missile strikes this morning, which played a significant catalytic role. From the liquidation effects, the overall long positions in the crypto market have been massively liquidated, with over 500,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours, covering a huge range.

Glassnode data shows that Ethereum whale wallets have net increased their holdings by over 800,000 coins for seven consecutive days, with a total position of over 14.3 million coins held between 1,000 and 10,000 coins. On June 12 alone, the net increase of Ethereum whales exceeded 871,000 coins, marking the largest single-day net inflow this year. Such a large-scale purchase is also the first since 2017.
After advising everyone to reduce their Bitcoin positions in mid-May, my uncle has only recommended increasing Ethereum positions within a month. The other sections have remained unchanged. This includes Ethereum's first-mover advantage in the current Wall Street RWA crypto layout and the consideration of Ethereum's infrastructure attracting funds after continuous hype around stablecoins. The market cannot simply start from memes and end with memes.

After a period of silence, Sun finally made it back to the trending searches today. This time, the script is not small; Tron announced it will go public through a reverse merger with Nasdaq-listed SRM Entertainment. The agreement has been reached, and the new company will directly purchase and hold TRX, while Sun's loyal confidants will also be parachuted into the board. Even more explosive is that Sun's dad and little Trump, this 'cross-border combination', are very likely to directly sit in the management.
A month ago, when Uncle San had dinner with friends from Huobi, he heard that Sun was planning a big move. Sure enough, when he made a move this time, it was still the familiar taste—Sun never holds back on what money can solve. Compared to some smart individuals who cut leeks every day yet still feel self-satisfied, Sun's public relations route has become more and more smooth over the past two years, with the process of cleaning up his image almost 'cheating'. It must be said that Tron’s early push in the industry was solid; no matter how you view him, at least he's still continuously doing something. Just like that old saying goes: 'The world laughs at me for being too insane, I laugh at others for not seeing through.'

When the gun between Israel and Iran goes off, the market explodes - it's not a landmine, but the $1.2 billion contract leverage being directly wiped out. Uncle San calculated that this military expenditure is probably making the crypto circle brothers sponsor a round of ammunition on average.
But to be honest, this wave of decline cannot all be blamed on the war. The geopolitical conflict feels more like a last-minute push; what truly brought the market down was the adjustment demand that was already piling up, but this war merely advanced the rhythm a bit.
Remember the wave of excitement that started this Monday? Market sentiment was at its peak, and many thought it was about to take off. Uncle San had already given a clear reminder in that day's article: the daily high for Bitcoin is around $110,000, don't fantasize too much above that.

The market conditions of the past few days, to put it bluntly, are simply dead water with minimal ripples. The trading volume of Bitcoin above $100,000 is currently almost the same as when it just broke $10,000 in July 2020. Four years have passed, and the market has followed the same rhythm; where has the money gone? Liquidity is exhausted, and the market is stagnant. More worryingly, around 105,000 points, chips are highly concentrated; once the main force takes control, leveraged liquidation can happen at any time, and the scenario of 'cutting once, then collecting again' can play on repeat.
Keynes said: "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." This phase is strikingly similar.

It’s that time of year again, the college entrance examination season. Every year at this time, the restless society seems to hit the pause button. Even Bitcoin, which usually charges through the crypto market, has recently found some stability, seemingly making way for the students and parents in and out of the examination halls. After all, this is one of the few exams in life that can be called 'fair,' and it deserves some respect.
Wei Dongyi has recently gone viral on Douyin, breaking 22 million followers in just four days. The power of a phenomenon-level IP is truly astonishing. Sometimes, the power of knowledge emerges without needing anyone to comment on it; reality will provide the answers. After watching the video, I also drifted off for a while. No matter how high your talent or how smart your mind, health must always come first. The comment 'the sea of learning is toothless' is actually a playful expression of concern; you can feel the goodwill of netizens even through the screen.

During the day, I was refreshing the market while going through news, and the more I looked, the more I felt like there were hidden dangers in the calm. On the surface, it seems peaceful, but the funds underneath have already started to stir.
This morning, as soon as I got off the high-speed train and picked up my phone, I saw that institutions have extended their Bitcoin accumulation plans directly to 2025, aiming to hold 417,000 BTC. This is not a small fund making random calls; this is serious money preparing for a long-term layout, showing that their confidence in the future crypto market has not wavered. Moreover, Tether made a big move today, transferring 3,729 BTC, about 4 billion USD. Brothers, this is not retail action; this is serious money making strategic reserves.

Today, the news of James Wynn's liquidation has gone viral.
40x leverage, holding $1 billion, a sudden explosion on-chain, and the liquidation price is clearly defined. The market is not playing around; it goes straight to liquidation. More surreal is that this guy came out in the afternoon to say, '80 million is nothing to mention.' Honestly, with this tone in the crypto market now, it's not far from being non-survivable.
Do you think this is just gossip? No, this is a complete record of violent capital flow on-chain. With this guy blowing up, Hyperliquid became the core of today’s traffic. Where there are liquidations, there must be funds coming to the table. Early in the morning, addresses were seen on Hyper using 3x leverage to hit PEPE, causing violent short-term fluctuations, with $3.37 million USDC directly staked. This is not retail; this is a professional team making a move, their techniques so familiar, it's like a throwback to the BitMEX old days.

Yesterday someone asked Uncle San, is it a bull market now? I replied with one sentence: you go flip through today's pile of news, then look at the market, and feel it yourself.
The Bitcoin conference is in full swing, a bunch of big shots around the world shouting 'free currency' 'new era reserve asset', but the traders below don't even want to watch the K-line. It's not that no one is paying attention, it's just that the market is too stable, stable as if brewing something.
You say it's lively, indeed it's lively — BlackRock comes out calling for a portfolio allocation of 2% Bitcoin; El Salvador continues to buy, steadily accumulating, now holding 6190 coins; Grayscale's new 'AI Crypto Sector' adds another layer of imagination for everyone; Telegram packaged a 1.5 billion USD bond financing, creditors can exchange for stocks, top institutions like Citadel and Mubadala have invested. You say it's quiet, it indeed is quiet — the market neither rises nor falls, the main force is reducing volume, the market atmosphere is reminiscent of the seconds before a meal starts.

Today's market can be described as a live textbook of 'bullish bombardment + emotional cleansing'.
The Trump Group announced a shocking operation today: Trump Media Technology Group has launched a Bitcoin treasury plan of up to $2.5 billion, which is expected to complete private fundraising by the end of this month. This is not just talk; it's solid dollars, backed by more than fifty institutions participating. This capital operation is comparable to MicroStrategy back in the day, but this time it carries the aura of an incumbent president. The market has reacted appropriately, but it’s far from the expected level; the major player had already built positions a month in advance before the news came out.

When Trump opened his mouth, the big pie instantly collapsed by 5,000 points, and altcoins fell directly by 10%-20%. Those who understand the market know that this is just a mouthful after emotional loss of control; those who don’t understand the truth might really think his son opened a short position in advance. This wave of high-level selling has liquidated 590 million dollars in leverage, of which the bulls accounted for 500 million; the fuel for the next wave of market has quietly begun to accumulate.
As for tariffs, history has certainly provided lessons. In the US-China game, American public opinion, and global inflation pressures, Uncle believes that such absurdly high tariffs cannot take shape. Policy clashes between major countries are simply posturing; after showing the knife, they ultimately have to retract it. A series of operations as fierce as a tiger ultimately leaves only a mess of risks.