No one has been bullish these past few days.
The fans who previously cursed me to "get lost" have also calmed down.
US CPI inflation data at 2.4%:
Indicates that inflation is quite stubborn and cannot be suppressed!
The Fed's rate cut in July is completely off the table!
US Treasury yields are still very high, and Trump is also troubled. Not cutting rates? It's like a fishbone stuck in the throat, extremely uncomfortable!
US-China tariff negotiations:
On the surface, it seems favorable, but in reality, it's more concessions from the East.
Trump has won again!
I can't understand why the "supreme" village chief (China) would compromise? But since an agreement has been reached, tariffs are temporarily stable, and the subsequent impact on the market is small, barely considered a positive.
US stocks:
Have already risen to high levels, the weekly chart is nearing its peak, likely to undergo a major correction!
If US stocks perform poorly, the crypto market won't fare well either!
Technical Analysis
BTC Daily Chart:
Several times it has surged close to 110,000 USD but couldn't break through.
No breakthrough of the previous high? Might form a "double top."
MACD indicator shows that bullish momentum is weakening.
Yesterday closed with a bearish candle, if today's closing price is below 108,000 USD, this rebound won't even count as a consolidation and will directly continue to drop!
Upper resistance: around 110,000 USD. Lower support: around 107,000 USD. If it breaks below 107,000? Directly heading for 100,000 USD!
4-Hour Chart:
MACD death cross pointing down, short-term still needs to drop!
Trading suggestion: Short BTC around 109,500 USD, set stop loss at the previous high, and take profit around 107,000 USD.
Thinking of betting on a short-term rebound to go long? Hold off for now! Wait for a clear stabilization signal before entering.
Sentiment indicator:
It's approaching the "high-risk zone", absolutely do not chase high prices!
Want to buy spot? Just wait patiently for a pullback!
Final insight:
Flowers won't always bloom, and people won't always be right. In trading, one must avoid arrogance and impatience; it's a marathon.
I am Ji Xin, follow me, top-tier team support, only serving ambitious madmen.
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