It’s truly a macro week, with one news after another coming in.
Last night, Powell just made strong statements and crashed the market, then turned around to see Microsoft and Google’s earnings reports violently boost US stock futures, with the Nasdaq pre-market up 1.4%, and Bitcoin also instantaneously revived. This kind of disjointed rhythm is really hard to understand, but one has to participate.
How is the current rhythm of BTC and ETH?
#BTC : Recently, this wave of movement is classically chaotic: false break + stop-loss of long positions + inducement to short, then a reversal surge. I have talked about this 'doge logic' too many times; understanding it is a money-making opportunity.
The intraday rhythm is also clearly differentiated—rising during the day, crashing at night, and the sentiment during US market hours is tightly controlled.
#ETH : This bullish pattern continues, although recent net inflows into ETH ETF are declining, its status in the community is stable. BlackRock has held $11.3 billion in ETH spot, accounting for 2.46% of the supply. The goal is to reserve 5%, which is 500,000 coins, and currently, there are only over 600,000, leaving plenty of room.
S-BET target is 1 million coins, currently only 400,000, still far from the target.
ETH has stabilized its status in the community, with a large reserve space for ETF.
One more thing: ETH/BTC exchange rate stabilizing above 0.032 means that ETH's 'consensus' and 'downside protection' are continuously strengthening. For medium to long-term allocation, ETH remains the most stable choice.
The most obvious phenomenon in the market right now: mainstream coins are holding on, while altcoins are crashing! Especially those old coins on CEX, lacking everything, all lying flat, and the weekly structure hasn't even formed a bottom successfully. In contrast, mainstream narrative coins, such as those related to ETF, treasury, grayscale components, or WLFI-related projects, have some capital support.
The market structure is already very clear: Shanzhai without institutional funds are collectively bleeding; targets backed by regular armies are in the stage of bottom formation.
SEC New Policy: The signal for the launch of Shanzhai ETF has been sounded!
Last night, Shanzhai received the biggest good news—SEC released new rules for crypto ETPs:
As long as the token is listed on Coinbase’s derivatives platform and continues futures trading for 6 months, it can apply for an ETF.
The mainstream coins that currently meet the conditions include:
#LTC, BCH, DOGE, #DOT, #SHIB, #AVAX, LINK, XLM, #SOL, #HBAR, ADA, #XRP
This wave has directly pushed CB to the core of global capital focus, the door to Shanzhai ETF has officially opened!
In the past, project parties sought to get on the ETF, now it’s the ETF institutions actively watching CB. The Shanzhai season might really start from here.
What to watch in the short term? These coins are worth paying attention to.
$UNI : Recently, it has been hovering around $10, unable to go up or down, but it is clearly accumulating energy. Once the market rebounds, this kind of coin that has been suppressed for a long time can easily experience a violent surge, so keep a close watch.
$SEI : A clean rebound from the lower boundary of the rising channel, support + EMA9 resonance area, once it breaks through the middle track, the target is the upper track. As long as the trend line is maintained, it is viewed as bullish.
#DOGE : The false breakout trend is obvious, the surge was quickly suppressed, and the 8% fluctuation indicates that the rhythm is not yet right. If it continues to decline, the double top structure will be confirmed, be cautious of the pressure ahead.
$ETC : A standard double bottom reversal pattern is forming, strongly breaking through the neckline pressure. It is now retesting the support near the neckline, and as long as this position can hold, it is a good entry opportunity. If the bulls are weak, the short-term target may unfold a tug-of-war in the 25-27 range.
#SUI: Quickly rebounded after liquidating at 4.3, but lacks further fuel. If market sentiment follows, it could rally again at any time; pay attention to the emotional trigger points in the short term.
Summary: During the period of market differentiation, focus on the main line—ETF + ETH is core, Shanzhai ETF is a new opportunity. Don’t chase blindly, grasp the rhythm, which is more important than the market itself.
That's all for the article! If you're confused in the crypto circle, consider planning and harvesting with me!
