The collapse of August has begun, and this familiar scene has returned:
US stocks took the lead in plummeting, Bitcoin once fell below 113000, mainstream altcoins followed in a flash crash, and even junk coins lost weight on the spot. But don't panic; overall, this looks more like a phase pullback, and it hasn't reached a dangerous level yet. As long as there are no major issues with US stocks, the crypto market won't collapse directly.
Last night, BTC plunged, and I thought the market was going to completely crash, but it stabilized during the day. The most regrettable thing is that the URPD gap around 112 is still not filled; historical experience tells us: such gaps will eventually need to be filled.
Bitcoin hasn't hit bottom yet, but the bottom isn't far from us.
First, let's talk about a few signals—
The fear index is still neutral, indicating that market sentiment has not truly released;
The daily MACD has just crossed dead, and the RSI hasn't entered the oversold zone;
There was a dip but no significant volume increase, and the bottom hasn't been fully cleared.
From these observations, BTC is indeed still within the fourth wave pullback cycle.
Historical patterns indicate that the fourth wave lows will not be lower than the second wave, so this wave's extreme support is likely around 100000; whether it can hold is still uncertain, but I will treat that area as a medium-term entry point in batches.
ETH: The direction is correct, but the pace has slowed down.
Last week I mentioned that if it could break 3950, there would be a chance to hit new highs. As a result, it broke through on Monday, but the altcoins didn't follow and collectively turned against it. ETH is currently still under short-term pressure at the 3950 level; if it can't break through after a prolonged attack, it may likely retrace to 3200-3300 before making another move.
In fact, August is a crucial month for Ethereum—if it can stand above 4000, there is a high probability of success by the end of the year; but if it fails, it may enter a period of sideways grinding. At this time, what we need is not vision but endurance. Bull markets are never linear; taking it slow is fine, as long as the direction is correct.
US stocks are crashing; who in the crypto market can withstand the pain the best?
Let's look back at this week's three sets of data, which are truly chilling:
1️⃣ US stocks fell 5% in two days, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 plummeted, and crypto concept stocks like COIN, MSTR, and CIRCLE fell back 20%-37%, while #BMNR and #SBET were even halved.
2️⃣ Bitcoin fell 9%, which sounds significant, but compared to the severity of the US stock market, our 'iron-headed coin' has instead become a safe-haven asset.
3️⃣ Multicoin's liquidation reached 700 million, the second highest in half a year, mainly due to the altcoin bulls being wiped out. At the same time, BTC spot ETF outflows reached 812 million, and ETH ETF outflows were 150 million, also the second largest in history. This wave of outflows should not be underestimated.
These data reflect that the main force is retreating, and funds are seeking safety.
Interest rate cut expectations are fluctuating, and bears continue to control the pace.
This week, Powell firmly stated 'no expectations for interest rate cuts,' and the market immediately collapsed; on Friday, the non-farm data was extremely poor, which should have been good for rate cuts, but the market continued to decline. This wave gave no breathing room, directly pressing the market down.
The non-farm payroll data is also extremely poor, coupled with other macroeconomic news, the market is rehearsing the script of 'September interest rate cut certainty'; however, this rhythm is truly testing patience!
Rhythm: Controlling your hands is more important than seizing rebounds.
#BTC , #ETH has also broken through key support levels, hitting new lows, with short- to mid-term trends biased downward.
Now the price does have cost-effectiveness, and some are beginning to average down, but there hasn't been a real 'stop-loss signal' yet. For example:
BTC dipped to 112722 but did not increase volume;
There was no obvious increase in volume with a long lower shadow;
Altcoins often have a 'rebound and then sell' trend.
So next: Those who want to hold lightly can pay attention to the gap area around 112000 and try to catch a bottom; those playing altcoins should wait for a second test to stabilize before entering on the right side.
The real medium-term may be around the 100000 mark, which has weekly level support, and is worth waiting for.
I won't guess the bottom, nor do I fantasize about rebounds. I am currently only doing 'signal following.' Until there is a reversal signal, maintaining discipline is crucial.
Summary:
What we are competing with now is not courage, but calmness.
The dip is just a process; the direction is correct, and retracements should be taken. August is a month of volatility; don't be impulsive, wait for signals, and take action when it's time without rushing to answer or predict.
This wave allows for a calm reassessment: how should altcoins be averaged down, which mainstream coins can rebound first, and how will the market move after the interest rate cut in September?
That's all for this article! If you're confused in the crypto market, consider strategizing and harvesting with me!