Is this the first day of August, so stimulating?
I quickly flipped through historical data to see if August is indeed a market black hole. Indeed, Bitcoin and Ethereum have mostly declined in August over past years, but interestingly - the average return rate is actually positive.
Especially considering the four-year cycle of crypto bull and bear markets, 2025 actually corresponds to the structural strong phases of 2021 and 2017, so don't be too quick to conclude that the bull market is over.
BTC trend: The longer the low-level fluctuation continues, the smaller the rebound space will be.
From the #Bitcoin hourly chart, the longer this fluctuation range drags on, the more limited the height of future rebounds will be. This pattern extending to the 4H level and above is likely to break downwards. Therefore, it is more suitable to wait for the 15-minute level to rearrange or wait for a second retest opportunity on the 4H level.
ETH monthly chart: The overall trend is still intact, and the bullish power has not exited.
#Ethereum's monthly chart is actually quite optimistic, with the lows continuously rising, and the overall trend is up. The previous two times it could not break 4000 and was knocked down, which is understandable, after all, the last round of bull markets had too much leverage at this level.
However, after each pullback, the bottom can still recover with volume, like in July when there was a large bullish candle with volume, and this time it has also hit a key resistance level. The most crucial point is: this wave of increase has been accompanied by volume and speed, unlike the previous times which felt more hollow.
Moreover, the MACD golden cross is still above the zero line, indicating that the strength of the main force has not retreated. As long as there is no drastic increase in volume leading to a crash, there is still hope for ETH to continue strengthening in August.
Fundamentals: Employment data is positive, and although expectations for Fed rate cuts have decreased, they have not disappeared.
Last night's data was actually quite critical:
The unemployment rate in the beautiful country is higher than expected, which is positive.
Non-farm payrolls were lower than expected, which is also positive.
This logic sounds counterintuitive, but under the Fed's thinking, it indeed aligns with the idea that 'the worse the data, the more likely the rate cut'.
It's just that the PCE data directly 'flipped the table'.
This round of decline is actually more about releasing the valuation premium brought by rate cut expectations.
Today, the most eye-catching news is: The SEC chairman announced the launch of the Project Crypto plan.
This is an absolute positive for #RWA, #DeFi, and #public chains, even a policy-level turning point.
Mainstream coins that have met the criteria can refer to the article: Explosive week! BTC's money-giving script reappears, ETH's position in the community is secured? Do new ETF regulations ignite altcoins? Who will explode first, UNI, SUI, ADA, ETC, etc.?
Institutional actions: BTC and ETH buying pressure has begun to wane, Sol ETF continues to drag down.
In terms of data, last night Bitcoin ETF saw an outflow of 114 million, and BlackRock has not bought for two consecutive days; although ETH saw inflows, the scale was only 17 million, and it is also shrinking.
Although Solana's ETF saw an inflow of 2 million yesterday, it has had no presence since its listing; this performance is really disappointing.
However, this also has reference value - those who can obtain ETF, coin stocks, treasury and other 'traditional + on-chain' dual recognition are the real institutional logic. At least one or two of these dimensions (ETF, Grayscale, WLFI reserves, institutional subscriptions) must be satisfied to indicate that this altcoin is not just air.
Summary:
Although August is traditionally a 'fluctuation month' for Bitcoin, in past bull years (2017, 2021) it has instead seen a doubling trend; the key is when the structural rotation and capital sentiment switch back.
Currently, although there are ETF outflows, macro disturbances, and the combination of tax increases and interest rate hikes, the bullish structure of ETH remains, the SEC's attitude is changing, and the RWA narrative is gaining traction. This wave of decline may not be the end, and it could even be the starting point for the next round of structural market trends.
As for how to select coins?
Remember that truth: Institutions do not touch it, the treasury has not entered, and the ETF shadow is absent; don't hold it blindly.
That's all for the article! If you're confused in the crypto space, you might consider joining me to lay out and harvest from the institutions!
