1. The "Lagging Effect" of Tariff Inflation: The price fog under inventory buffer.
The trade protection policies of the Trump administration have been in place for several months, but the price impact felt by consumers is much milder than expected. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell disclosed key data at a congressional hearing: despite a 60% coverage rate for tariffs on China, only 19% of tracked consumer goods have seen price increases, and 16% of goods have seen price declines. This phenomenon of "high tariffs but mild inflation" is essentially the "buffer" effect of retailers' inventories—most products on the shelves were imported before the tariffs took effect, and costs have not yet reflected the latest trade policies.
2. The price categories named: Electronic products are the first to be impacted.
▶ Electronic products: The "Disaster Zone" under tariffs.
Powell specifically pointed out that personal computers and audiovisual equipment from China have already seen clear price increases. Data from Telsey Advisory Group shows that the average price of laptops has risen by 8.7% compared to before the tariffs were implemented, and the price of Bluetooth headphones has surged by 12%. A procurement director from a 3C chain disclosed: "Containers arriving in May are already subject to the new tariffs, and the cost of products on the shelves in June generally increased by 15%-20%."
▶ Automotive industry: Price declines masked by inventory.
Contrary to expectations, new car prices fell by 0.2% year-on-year in May, and the tariffs on imported parts (25%) have not yet been passed on to consumers. Edmunds analyst Ivan Drury explained: "Dealers still have 3-4 months of pre-tariff inventory in their warehouses, and some brands have even launched 'inventory clearance specials' to mask the pressure of rising costs." However, supply chain data shows that the cost of imported parts for North American automakers surged by 37% in June, signaling that price increases are on the horizon.
3. Multiple Forces at Play: From Government Optimism to Merchant Anxiety.
✅ The White House's "Inflation is Under Control" Argument
Trade advisor Navarro boldly claimed: "The so-called 'tariff inflation' is an economist's misjudgment; the Trump era achieved the dual goals of price stability and rising wages." Treasury Department official Lavorgna further pointed out: "All inflation prediction models have failed; the impact of tariffs is completely invisible in the data."
⚠ Merchant's "Cost Alert"
Retail giants like Walmart and Home Depot have already sent price adjustment notices to suppliers. Nuvo CEO Sid Malladi revealed an industry unwritten rule: "No one wants to be the first to raise prices and damage their brand, but the cost of goods purchased after June has increased by 12%. If prices are not adjusted, profits will be squeezed out." Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows that the price index paid by enterprises in April saw the largest increase since 2022, and inventory turnover days decreased by 18%, indicating that a wave of price increases is imminent.
4. The next 6 months: The "Countdown" to Tariff Inflation.
Powell clearly warned in the monetary policy report: "The summer will be a critical window; when the 1-2 months of buffer inventory is depleted, tariff costs will fully permeate to the consumer end." Wolfe Research's model shows that if current tariff policies continue:
Q3 2025: Prices of consumer goods such as home appliances and clothing may rise by 5-8%;
Q4 2025: Small and medium-sized enterprises may face price increases of over 15% due to a lack of supply chain bargaining power.
Consumer Response Suggestions:
Recently, prioritize purchasing large durable goods (such as home appliances, cars) to lock in prices before tariffs.
Pay attention to retailers' "inventory clearance" promotions; some imported goods still have price gaps.
Small and medium-sized enterprises may consider diversifying their procurement sources; the cost advantages of alternative production locations such as Vietnam and Mexico have become apparent.
(The data in this article is compiled from the Federal Reserve, ISM, and retail industry research reports and does not constitute investment advice. Trade policies are uncertain; actual impacts should be based on market dynamics.)