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6.19 Crypto Market Morning Report: Divergent Patterns Under Geopolitical Risks and Asset Rotation
1. Market Dynamics: Trends of Mainstream Coins and Characteristics of Capital Migration
1. The correlation between BTC and US stocks has weakened, showing structural migration of funds.
2. ETH is dragged down by market sentiment, with upward momentum limited.
3. SOL has become the preferred target for bears, with insufficient rebound momentum.
2. Global News: New Directions in the Industry Under Policy and Technological Changes
(A) Regulatory and Policy Dynamics
The state has passed the "Digital Asset Tax Relief Act," which exempts BTC payments under $200 from sales tax, becoming the first tax-friendly region in the US for small-scale crypto payments, expected to promote local merchants' acceptance of cryptocurrency transactions.
(B) Institutional and Market Innovation
Crypto unicorn starts IPO process
The digital asset trading platform FalconX has submitted an S-1 registration statement to the SEC, planning to go public on NASDAQ in Q4 2025, aiming to raise $500 million.
The fusion of TradFi and DeFi accelerates.
3. Market Outlook: Strategic Responses Under Emotional Disconnection
Currently, the crypto market and traditional financial market show a significant emotional split: US stocks have been hitting new highs driven by interest rate cut expectations, while crypto assets remain under pressure due to geopolitical risks (escalating conflict in the Middle East) and regulatory uncertainties (SEC delaying ETF approvals). In this divergent pattern, investors should pay attention to the following key points:
Capital rotation risks: After the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates (4.25%-4.50%), Powell acknowledged high uncertainty in economic forecasts, and market expectations for a "soft landing" are heating up, which may accelerate the flow of funds from cryptocurrencies to US tech stocks;
Structural opportunity exploration: Compliance sectors (such as FalconX-related stocks), AI + blockchain integration projects (GPT-5 ecosystem), and policy-friendly regions (Ohio compliance projects) present possibilities for excess returns;
Risk control priority: Caution is needed for liquidity-depleted coins like SOL that may further decline, BTC should focus on the $103,000 support level, and ETH should reduce positions if it falls below $2,480.
Conclusion: Under the dual uncertainties of geopolitical conflict and policy games, the market may continue to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, but the long-term trend of institutionalization and compliance remains unchanged. Investors should maintain flexibility in their positions and accurately grasp the structural opportunities brought by capital migration in an emotionally disconnected market environment. #美联储FOMC会议
1. Market Dynamics: Trends of Mainstream Coins and Characteristics of Capital Migration
1. The correlation between BTC and US stocks has weakened, showing structural migration of funds.
2. ETH is dragged down by market sentiment, with upward momentum limited.
3. SOL has become the preferred target for bears, with insufficient rebound momentum.
2. Global News: New Directions in the Industry Under Policy and Technological Changes
(A) Regulatory and Policy Dynamics
The state has passed the "Digital Asset Tax Relief Act," which exempts BTC payments under $200 from sales tax, becoming the first tax-friendly region in the US for small-scale crypto payments, expected to promote local merchants' acceptance of cryptocurrency transactions.
(B) Institutional and Market Innovation
Crypto unicorn starts IPO process
The digital asset trading platform FalconX has submitted an S-1 registration statement to the SEC, planning to go public on NASDAQ in Q4 2025, aiming to raise $500 million.
The fusion of TradFi and DeFi accelerates.
3. Market Outlook: Strategic Responses Under Emotional Disconnection
Currently, the crypto market and traditional financial market show a significant emotional split: US stocks have been hitting new highs driven by interest rate cut expectations, while crypto assets remain under pressure due to geopolitical risks (escalating conflict in the Middle East) and regulatory uncertainties (SEC delaying ETF approvals). In this divergent pattern, investors should pay attention to the following key points:
Capital rotation risks: After the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates (4.25%-4.50%), Powell acknowledged high uncertainty in economic forecasts, and market expectations for a "soft landing" are heating up, which may accelerate the flow of funds from cryptocurrencies to US tech stocks;
Structural opportunity exploration: Compliance sectors (such as FalconX-related stocks), AI + blockchain integration projects (GPT-5 ecosystem), and policy-friendly regions (Ohio compliance projects) present possibilities for excess returns;
Risk control priority: Caution is needed for liquidity-depleted coins like SOL that may further decline, BTC should focus on the $103,000 support level, and ETH should reduce positions if it falls below $2,480.
Conclusion: Under the dual uncertainties of geopolitical conflict and policy games, the market may continue to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, but the long-term trend of institutionalization and compliance remains unchanged. Investors should maintain flexibility in their positions and accurately grasp the structural opportunities brought by capital migration in an emotionally disconnected market environment. #美联储FOMC会议
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New Bitcoin Model Predicts Bitcoin Price to Reach $444K by June 2026 Under Limited Supply Condition
Bitcoin has experienced mild volatility over the past week, with a brief but notable drop late in the week. Prices initially performed strongly, surging to nearly $110,000 before a sharp correction on June 12-13. The pullback caused the price of Bitcoin to fall back to just above $103,000. As of Monday, however, the asset has begun to recover and is trading at around $106,603.
Despite recent price volatility, long-term forecasts from a recent study suggest that prices will behave very differently under certain market constraints.
Long term price model
Despite recent price volatility, long-term forecasts from a recent study suggest that prices will behave very differently under certain market constraints.
Long term price model
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Analysis of Bitcoin Price Plunge: Profit-taking triggers correction, $100,000 support becomes key
1. Price trend: Multiple supports broken, initiating a downward channel
Bitcoin price began a new round of correction on June 13 after failing to break through the $110,500 resistance level, subsequently breaking below key supports of $107,500 and $106,500, with a minimum drop to $102,640, a decline of over 6% from the daily high. The current price oscillates between $103,000 and $105,500, with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($104,800) becoming a short-term bull-bear dividing line.
Technical patterns show that BTC/USD hourly chart has formed a bearish trendline (resistance level $106,600), with the 100-hour moving average ($105,200) providing resistance; market selling pressure is concentrated in the $104,200-$105,500 range. On-chain data shows a 37% decrease in net outflow of BTC from exchanges, accompanied by a single-day reduction of 12,000 BTC from whale addresses (holding over 10,000 BTC), indicating that profit-taking sentiment is dominating the market.
Bitcoin price began a new round of correction on June 13 after failing to break through the $110,500 resistance level, subsequently breaking below key supports of $107,500 and $106,500, with a minimum drop to $102,640, a decline of over 6% from the daily high. The current price oscillates between $103,000 and $105,500, with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($104,800) becoming a short-term bull-bear dividing line.
Technical patterns show that BTC/USD hourly chart has formed a bearish trendline (resistance level $106,600), with the 100-hour moving average ($105,200) providing resistance; market selling pressure is concentrated in the $104,200-$105,500 range. On-chain data shows a 37% decrease in net outflow of BTC from exchanges, accompanied by a single-day reduction of 12,000 BTC from whale addresses (holding over 10,000 BTC), indicating that profit-taking sentiment is dominating the market.
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Can Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) Catch Up to Dogecoin (DOGE) in Market Value? Experts Provide Key Insights
1. Current Market Value Gap and Supply-Demand Dynamics
Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) currently has a market value of $7.52 billion, which is 3.78 times lower than Dogecoin (DOGE) at $28.46 billion. To catch up to DOGE's market value, SHIB needs to achieve over 280% price increase, from $0.00001277 to $0.00005155.
From the supply side, SHIB's circulation has reached 589.24 trillion coins (close to the maximum supply of 589.55 trillion), and the deflationary mechanism has become a key driver for its price; meanwhile, DOGE maintains an inflationary property with an unlimited supply of 149.65 billion coins, forming a stark contrast between the two. SHIB's trading volume in the last 24 hours is $221 million (up 4% month-on-month), while DOGE shows stronger market activity with a trading volume of $1.61 billion.
2. Long and Short Factors Game Analysis
(a) SHIB's Potential Growth Drivers
Implementation of the deflationary mechanism: The team continues to promote the token burning plan, enhancing burning efficiency through ecological applications (such as the Shibarium Layer 2 network), gradually strengthening scarcity logic. Expansion of ecological scenarios: The Shibarium network has achieved reduced transaction costs and improved processing efficiency; if the number of users surpasses 10 million, it will drive SHIB's transformation from a meme coin to a functional token.
(b) DOGE's Competitive Advantages
First-mover advantage in the market: As the largest meme coin by market value, DOGE has a head start in social media attention, community consensus, and institutional collaborations. High liquidity support: An average daily trading volume of $1.6 billion creates a price buffer, making it significantly more resilient than SHIB.
3. Divergence in Expert Predictions Timeline
Optimists: Expect SHIB's market value to reach DOGE levels by November 2027; if the crypto market enters a super cycle, the probability of breaking through before the end of the year increases. Conservatives: SHIB needs to achieve exponential growth in ecological adoption and trading volume, which may not be completed until 2040 at the earliest.
Risk Warning: The meme coin sector is heavily reliant on market sentiment, and SHIB's deflationary effects, regulatory policy changes, and DOGE's ecological counterattack could rewrite the competitive landscape. Investors should be wary of short-term speculative bubbles and rationally assess the actual value of the project.#狗狗币崛起 #
1. Current Market Value Gap and Supply-Demand Dynamics
Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) currently has a market value of $7.52 billion, which is 3.78 times lower than Dogecoin (DOGE) at $28.46 billion. To catch up to DOGE's market value, SHIB needs to achieve over 280% price increase, from $0.00001277 to $0.00005155.
From the supply side, SHIB's circulation has reached 589.24 trillion coins (close to the maximum supply of 589.55 trillion), and the deflationary mechanism has become a key driver for its price; meanwhile, DOGE maintains an inflationary property with an unlimited supply of 149.65 billion coins, forming a stark contrast between the two. SHIB's trading volume in the last 24 hours is $221 million (up 4% month-on-month), while DOGE shows stronger market activity with a trading volume of $1.61 billion.
2. Long and Short Factors Game Analysis
(a) SHIB's Potential Growth Drivers
Implementation of the deflationary mechanism: The team continues to promote the token burning plan, enhancing burning efficiency through ecological applications (such as the Shibarium Layer 2 network), gradually strengthening scarcity logic. Expansion of ecological scenarios: The Shibarium network has achieved reduced transaction costs and improved processing efficiency; if the number of users surpasses 10 million, it will drive SHIB's transformation from a meme coin to a functional token.
(b) DOGE's Competitive Advantages
First-mover advantage in the market: As the largest meme coin by market value, DOGE has a head start in social media attention, community consensus, and institutional collaborations. High liquidity support: An average daily trading volume of $1.6 billion creates a price buffer, making it significantly more resilient than SHIB.
3. Divergence in Expert Predictions Timeline
Optimists: Expect SHIB's market value to reach DOGE levels by November 2027; if the crypto market enters a super cycle, the probability of breaking through before the end of the year increases. Conservatives: SHIB needs to achieve exponential growth in ecological adoption and trading volume, which may not be completed until 2040 at the earliest.
Risk Warning: The meme coin sector is heavily reliant on market sentiment, and SHIB's deflationary effects, regulatory policy changes, and DOGE's ecological counterattack could rewrite the competitive landscape. Investors should be wary of short-term speculative bubbles and rationally assess the actual value of the project.#狗狗币崛起 #
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Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) Could Surpass Dogecoin (DOGE) by 2030: Three Key Logics
Since its inception in 2020, Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) has experienced a 85.6% pullback from its historical high. However, as a meme coin benchmarked against Dogecoin (DOGE), its potential to surpass DOGE by 2030 is gradually emerging, with the following core driving factors:
1. Deflationary Mechanism Creates Scarcity Dogecoin (DOGE) inherently lacks a price anchoring foundation due to its infinite inflation design. In contrast, SHIB has a fixed total supply of 589 trillion coins, and the team is developing a new burning mechanism (reportedly, trillions of coins will be burned annually). Although the current high circulation suppresses the unit price, the realization of a deflationary mechanism would significantly enhance token scarcity — referencing burning cases like LUNC, the token price often surges during deflationary cycles due to supply-demand imbalance, providing a foundational logic for SHIB's price increase.
2. Shibarium Ecosystem Empowers Value The second-layer network of SHIB, Shibarium, has entered a substantial development phase, aiming to create a “meme coin + utility” ecosystem. This network can expand SHIB’s applications in scenarios such as DeFi, NFTs, etc., by reducing transaction costs and improving processing efficiency (e.g., pet-themed DAO governance, virtual asset trading, etc.). If the number of Shibarium users exceeds ten million before 2030, SHIB will upgrade from a mere meme coin to a functional token with ecosystem support, aligning its valuation logic closer to public chains like Ethereum.
3. Release of Cryptocurrency Market Cycle Benefits Industry forecasts suggest that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies could exceed $100 trillion by 2030 (currently around $1.2 trillion). If Bitcoin (BTC) breaks $100,000 during this period, it will lead the entire market into a “super cycle.” As a meme coin in the top 20 by market cap, SHIB typically exhibits higher elasticity in bull markets — during the 2021 bull run, SHIB surged by 4 million%, far exceeding DOGE’s 40-fold increase. If the market repeats a “large-cap drives small-cap” trend, SHIB’s high volatility may help its market cap surpass DOGE.
Risk Warning: SHIB's logic for surpassing DOGE highly depends on the progress of ecosystem implementation and market bull-bear cycles. Its current lack of actual revenue support remains unchanged, and investors should be cautious of risks such as the deflationary mechanism underperforming expectations, changes in regulatory policies, and other risks. In the long term, the competitive landscape of the meme coin space remains highly uncertain.
Since its inception in 2020, Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) has experienced a 85.6% pullback from its historical high. However, as a meme coin benchmarked against Dogecoin (DOGE), its potential to surpass DOGE by 2030 is gradually emerging, with the following core driving factors:
1. Deflationary Mechanism Creates Scarcity Dogecoin (DOGE) inherently lacks a price anchoring foundation due to its infinite inflation design. In contrast, SHIB has a fixed total supply of 589 trillion coins, and the team is developing a new burning mechanism (reportedly, trillions of coins will be burned annually). Although the current high circulation suppresses the unit price, the realization of a deflationary mechanism would significantly enhance token scarcity — referencing burning cases like LUNC, the token price often surges during deflationary cycles due to supply-demand imbalance, providing a foundational logic for SHIB's price increase.
2. Shibarium Ecosystem Empowers Value The second-layer network of SHIB, Shibarium, has entered a substantial development phase, aiming to create a “meme coin + utility” ecosystem. This network can expand SHIB’s applications in scenarios such as DeFi, NFTs, etc., by reducing transaction costs and improving processing efficiency (e.g., pet-themed DAO governance, virtual asset trading, etc.). If the number of Shibarium users exceeds ten million before 2030, SHIB will upgrade from a mere meme coin to a functional token with ecosystem support, aligning its valuation logic closer to public chains like Ethereum.
3. Release of Cryptocurrency Market Cycle Benefits Industry forecasts suggest that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies could exceed $100 trillion by 2030 (currently around $1.2 trillion). If Bitcoin (BTC) breaks $100,000 during this period, it will lead the entire market into a “super cycle.” As a meme coin in the top 20 by market cap, SHIB typically exhibits higher elasticity in bull markets — during the 2021 bull run, SHIB surged by 4 million%, far exceeding DOGE’s 40-fold increase. If the market repeats a “large-cap drives small-cap” trend, SHIB’s high volatility may help its market cap surpass DOGE.
Risk Warning: SHIB's logic for surpassing DOGE highly depends on the progress of ecosystem implementation and market bull-bear cycles. Its current lack of actual revenue support remains unchanged, and investors should be cautious of risks such as the deflationary mechanism underperforming expectations, changes in regulatory policies, and other risks. In the long term, the competitive landscape of the meme coin space remains highly uncertain.
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Bitcoin's two major lifelines this week! Falling below 103,700 may lead to a direct plunge to 95,600. Can the bulls hold the last defense line?
Although Bitcoin has ended its consecutive decline in the short term, potential pullback risks still exist. This week, attention should be focused on two key support levels:
First defense line 103,700 USD: Selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) may become a turning point for the market. If on-chain data shows an acceleration in LTH holding transfers, the price may drop to this range. This position is also the lower boundary of the oscillation platform for the past month. Losing this level will trigger stop-loss selling pressure from quantitative trading;
Ultimate support 93,264 USD: If the 103,700 defense line is broken, the market may further drop to the upper line of the consolidation center for Q4 2024. A large number of spot long positions are gathered here. Once it falls below this level, it may trigger market panic expectations of a 'second bottom'.
Bullish reversal signal: If the price quickly breaks through the resistance level of 106,265 USD, it is expected to hit the 108,000 USD target in the short term, while declaring the bearish logic invalid. The current market's long-short battle intensifies, and it is recommended to closely track on-chain holding changes and the volume break through at the 106,000 USD level. This is a personal opinion and for reference only!
Although Bitcoin has ended its consecutive decline in the short term, potential pullback risks still exist. This week, attention should be focused on two key support levels:
First defense line 103,700 USD: Selling pressure from long-term holders (LTH) may become a turning point for the market. If on-chain data shows an acceleration in LTH holding transfers, the price may drop to this range. This position is also the lower boundary of the oscillation platform for the past month. Losing this level will trigger stop-loss selling pressure from quantitative trading;
Ultimate support 93,264 USD: If the 103,700 defense line is broken, the market may further drop to the upper line of the consolidation center for Q4 2024. A large number of spot long positions are gathered here. Once it falls below this level, it may trigger market panic expectations of a 'second bottom'.
Bullish reversal signal: If the price quickly breaks through the resistance level of 106,265 USD, it is expected to hit the 108,000 USD target in the short term, while declaring the bearish logic invalid. The current market's long-short battle intensifies, and it is recommended to closely track on-chain holding changes and the volume break through at the 106,000 USD level. This is a personal opinion and for reference only!
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$BTC 6.9 Big Pie Trend Morning Report
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a yellow line WXY X-wave rebound, expected to rise above 108,000. The X-wave consists of three sub-waves: abc. After the short-term b-wave correction ends, we continue to look for a c-wave rebound. A small level may form a head and shoulders bottom.
#Trading Suggestions
Short sell in the 106-107 range, initially targeting around 103. Grandson at 108, wait for the b-wave correction to finish, then consider buying above 108.
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a yellow line WXY X-wave rebound, expected to rise above 108,000. The X-wave consists of three sub-waves: abc. After the short-term b-wave correction ends, we continue to look for a c-wave rebound. A small level may form a head and shoulders bottom.
#Trading Suggestions
Short sell in the 106-107 range, initially targeting around 103. Grandson at 108, wait for the b-wave correction to finish, then consider buying above 108.
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