I. The Key Window for Historic Breakout: $108,900 is the Final Barrier
Bitcoin is currently in a critical phase of testing historical highs, with the price stabilizing above $107,000. Analysts generally believe that BTC is brewing a historic breakout, with $108,900 being the last line of defense against new records. This resistance level is not only the previous high area formed in December 2024 but also a key point in market psychology — bulls are attempting to break through with continuous capital inflow, while bears have densely placed stop-loss orders in this range.
The current BTC price is $107,800 (24-hour increase of 1.72%, weekly increase of 2.7%), effectively breaking through the key liquidity node at $105,797. Market authorities like Vander Poppe point out that a breakout above $108,900 will trigger a chain reaction in algorithmic trading systems, potentially attracting synchronized follow-up from quantitative funds and institutional capital, forming a 'breakout - chase' positive feedback mechanism.
II. The Technical Code of Long-Short Battles: The Tug of War Between Liquidity and Momentum
(1) Dynamic balance of support and resistance
Short-term support: $105,800 has become a battleground for longs and shorts, as this level is the upper boundary of the 50-hour moving average and the recent consolidation range before the breakout;
Downward risk: If it falls below $105,500, it may test $103,000 (200-hour moving average), and in extreme cases, it could test the psychological level of $100,000.
(2) Contradictory signals from momentum indicators
MACD: The dual lines are forming a death cross above the zero axis, with the histogram turning negative, indicating a temporary weakening of upward momentum;
RSI: A neutral reading of 55.93 indicates that the market has not yet become overbought, allowing further upward space for bulls, but caution is needed for profit-taking after overbought conditions.
This technical 'contradictory signal' reflects market divergence: on one hand, a breakout pattern has initially formed; on the other hand, pressure from short-term profit-taking is accumulating.
III. Short Squeeze Fuels the Uptrend: The Capital Logic Behind the $56 Million Liquidation
On June 25, the market experienced intense long and short battles, with over $56 million in short positions being liquidated, while long liquidations were only $6.34 million. The stark ratio indicates that the bears were forced to cut losses during the rebound. Large short positions liquidated on leading exchanges like Bybit and Bitfinex formed a cycle of "short squeeze - price surge - more short liquidations" — this imbalance in capital injection provides additional momentum for the upward trend.
On-chain data shows that whale addresses (holding over 10,000 BTC) have accumulated 32,000 BTC in the $105,000 range, while the Grayscale GBTC premium rate has narrowed from -15% to -8%, indicating clear signs of institutional capital entering the market. Meanwhile, the daily transfer volume of USDT on the Ethereum chain surged by 47%, providing ample liquidity to the market.
IV. Two Scenarios After a Breakout and Risk Warnings
(1) Optimistic Scenario: Breakout triggers a 'Golden Cross'
If BTC successfully rises above $108,900, the technical landscape will form a 'triple breakout' (price, volume, open interest), with a target aimed at $115,000 (Fibonacci 161.8% extension). Historical data shows that after similar breakout patterns form, BTC has an average increase of 22% within 30 days.
(2) Pessimistic Scenario: Liquidity exhaustion triggers a correction
The current market has consumed 85% of the liquidity in the $105,000-$107,000 range; if the breakout fails, it may trigger short-term profit-taking.
Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision (whether rate cut expectations are fulfilled);
The regulatory spillover effect of the EU's MiCA legislation on altcoins;
Changes in Bitcoin miners' hash rate (current hash rate has reached 480 EH/s; if it continues to rise, it may suppress prices).
Trading Strategy Recommendation:
A breakout above $108,900 allows for a small long position, with a stop loss set at $107,800;
Before breaking out, short positions can be placed around $108,500, targeting $106,000;
Position size should be controlled within 20% to avoid excessive speculation at key resistance levels.
Risk Warning: Breakouts to historical highs in cryptocurrencies often come with severe volatility; the above analysis should be adjusted according to individual risk tolerance. There are no absolute correct predictions in the market; strict stop-loss is the first rule of survival.