1. Breakthrough in 2025: $495 opens a new bullish cycle
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has recently rebounded strongly from several months' lows, currently stabilizing at $500, successfully breaking through the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($492). The technical indicators present three bullish signals:
RSI maintains 64+: Daily RSI has been above the overbought threshold for 5 consecutive days, highly similar to the indicator pattern before the breakout in 2024;
MACD golden cross confirmed: The fast line officially crosses above the slow line, red bars continue to expand, and volume coordination increases by 37%;
Moving averages in bullish arrangement: Price stabilizes above the 20/50/100/200-day moving averages, with the 20-day moving average ($455) forming strong support.
Short-term target directly points to $557 (0.786 Fibonacci level), and after breaking through, will challenge $640 (2024 peak extension at 1.0 times). Below, $446 (0.5 Fibonacci level) and $400 (historical strong support area) form a double protection.
2. Price Outlook Table for 2025-2030 (USD)
3. Staged breakthrough path analysis
▶ 2026: $580 as the dividing line between bulls and bears
If BCH can form an effective breakout in the $580-600 range, it will break the three-year consolidation pattern. Key catalysts may come from:
Implementation of payment scenarios: Merchant acceptance increases to 1.5 million+ (from 890,000 in 2025);
Institutional custody opens up: Compliance platform access increases by 50%.
Downside risk locked in at $420 (200-week moving average support).
▶ 2027: Structural breakthrough at $820
With the completion of the Lightning Network 2.0 upgrade, the demand for BCH as a payment token will explode:
On-chain transfer speed increases to 3 seconds per transaction (currently 5.8 seconds);
Daily trading volume may exceed 2 million transactions (expected 1.2 million in 2025).
$630 becomes a battleground for bulls and bears, and once stabilized, will initiate a new round of upward cycle.
▶ 2028-2030: Sprint to the thousand-dollar club
2028: $940 target based on the third Bitcoin halving effect, BCH as a BTC forked coin may attract incremental funds;
2029: $1050 needs to break through the upper boundary of the historical uptrend channel, reappearing the parabolic trend of the 2017 bull market;
2030: The conditions for achieving $1200 include a global payment market share reaching 3% (currently 1.2%), and institutional holdings exceeding 20%.
4. Risk warning and operational suggestions
Short-term strategy: Build a base near $500, add positions after breaking through $557, set stop-loss at $446;
Medium-term configuration: Focus on the effectiveness of the $580 breakout in 2026; if the breakout fails, reduce positions by 30%;
Long-term holding: Layout during pullbacks in the 2027-2028 cycle, aiming for the $820-940 range;
Macro variables: Shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy, progress of the EU MiCA legislation, dynamics of Bitcoin spot ETF approvals.
Market statement: Cryptocurrency price predictions carry a high degree of uncertainty. The above data is based on historical volatility and technical pattern extrapolation and does not constitute investment advice. Investors holding for more than 3 years should assess opportunity costs and are advised to allocate no more than 5% of assets to BCH.
