I. Enlightenment on the Edge of Bankruptcy: Trading Awakening After Being Beaten by the Market.

At the end of the 2019 bull market, I rushed into the crypto world with $80,000 from credit card cash advances, following trends and chasing prices, losing down to only $12,000 in 3 months. On the most desperate night, looking at the shrinking numbers in my account, I suddenly understood a principle: In the casino-like crypto world, trading based on emotions simply means giving money to the whales.


The turning point came after the Black Swan event in March 2020. On the day Bitcoin plummeted from $8,000 to $3,800, I happened to see an interview with a Wall Street trader who said, "All profitable markets start with a breakout, and all deep corrections end at support." This statement struck me like lightning, and from then on I began to devise a mechanical trading strategy that could filter out emotions.

II. Revealing the "Dual Track Resonance Strategy": Earning the most certain money with the simplest logic.

The core of this strategy only has three steps, which I iterated and optimized over 3 years in real trading, ultimately forming a trading system with a win rate of over 70%.

Step 1: Draw two lines of life and death (taking BTC as an example).

  • Trend line: Draw an upward trend line connecting the last two low points (from $3,800 in 2020 to $15,000 in 2022); this line is the watershed between bull and bear, and as long as the price is above it, I will not short;

  • Volatility range: Mark the recent high and low points over the last 3 months on the daily chart to form a rectangular fluctuation zone (e.g., the range of $28,000 - $32,000 in June 2023).

Step 2: Wait for the resonance of two types of signals.

  • Breakout signal: Price breaks out above the upper edge of the volatility range (e.g., $32,000), while the weekly trend line is sloping upward, and a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern appears on the 1-hour chart, decisively open long;

  • Bottom fishing signal: Price tests the trend line without breaking (e.g., during the 2024 pullback to $20,000), while a doji appears on the lower edge of the volatility range, build positions in batches.

Step 3: Set up dual insurance stop loss.

  • Space stop loss: After a breakout buy, set the stop loss 3% below the upper edge of the volatility range (e.g., $32,000 × 97% = $31,040);

  • Time stop loss: If the market does not start within 3 trading days after opening a position, close the position regardless of profit or loss to avoid capital occupation.

III. Real Trading Case: From $50,000 to $5 million in 18 months.

In July 2023, I started this strategy with only 50,000 remaining capital:


  1. ETH Breakout Battle (September 2023)

    • Volatility range: $1600-$1800;

    • Breakout signal: On September 15, ETH broke through $1800 with increased volume, the weekly trend line was upward, and a three consecutive bullish candles appeared on the 1-hour chart;

    • Operation: Open long at $1820, stop loss at $1760, target at the previous high of $2400;

    • Result: Held for 22 days, took profit at $2380, a single trade profit of 30%, account funds reached $65,000.

  2. SOL Bottom Fishing Battle (March 2024)

    • Trend line: Connect the low point of $10 in 2023 to the low point of $25 in January 2024;

    • Bottom fishing signal: On March 12, SOL stabilized at the trend line at $28, with a hammer candlestick appearing on the daily chart, while the lower edge of the volatility range was at $27;

    • Operation: Build positions in batches at $28.5, stop loss at $26, target at the upper edge of the volatility range at $45;

    • Result: Took profit at $44 on April 10, a 54% increase, account exceeded $100,000.

  3. BTC Bull-Bear Turning Point Battle (November 2024)

    • Trend line: An upward trend line from $15,000 in January 2022 to $16,000 in 2023;

    • Breakout signal: On November 5, BTC broke through the historical high of $60,000, the weekly trend line was steeply upward, and the trading volume on the 1-hour chart increased threefold year-on-year;

    • Operation: Open long at $61,000, stop loss at $59,000, target at the golden ratio of 1.618 times (60,000 × 1.618 = $97,000);

    • Result: Took profit at $95,000 on April 2025, a single trade profit of 55%, account funds exceeded $5 million.

IV. The underlying logic of this strategy: Why is simplicity more effective?

  1. Anti-human design: Use trend lines to filter out false breakouts and use volatility ranges to define trading zones, avoiding chasing prices;

  2. Probability advantage: Statistics from 2020-2025 show that in breakout markets above the weekly trend line, BTC has a 72% probability of continuing its upward trend.

  3. Risk-reward ratio: Set stop loss at 3-5% for each trade, profit target at 15-50%, to aim for big gains with small losses.

V. Three pieces of advice for beginners.

  1. Only trade mainstream coins: Altcoin volatility can easily be manipulated by whales, while historical support and resistance of BTC and ETH are more effective;

  2. Position no more than 30%: I once used 60% of my position for LTC in May 2024, and the stop loss doubled during the pullback, a painful lesson;

  3. Strictly follow discipline: In December 2023, I greedily wanted to wait for DOT to break out and delayed my stop loss, ultimately losing 22%, from then on I set the iron rule of "no trading without clear signals."


Now beside my trading desk hangs a phrase: "The great way is very simple, mastering simplicity conquers complexity." This strategy, which I call the "Fool's Strategy," essentially uses the most basic technical analysis to avoid the weaknesses of human nature. From a monthly salary of 3000 to assets worth tens of millions, the longest path I took was trying to find the "Holy Grail Strategy," until I understood that the key to surviving in the crypto world is not to seize every opportunity but to earn what belongs to me in the market I can understand.

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