One, wealth formula: Token holding amount calculation for a $5 million target
Calculating based on SHIB's current price of $0.00001138, achieving $5 million in assets requires breaking through two core variables:
▶ Scenario one: Price-driven
Target unit price: $0.05 (increase of 4,300%)
Required tokens: 100 million pieces (5 million ÷ 0.05)
▶ Scenario two: Position-driven
Unit price $0.01 (increase of 870%): Need to hold 500 million pieces
Unit price $0.005 (increase of 430%): Need to hold 1 billion pieces
Data comparison table
Target price Increase multiplier Required SHIB quantity Current market value corresponding
$0.05 4300% 100 million pieces $1,138
$0.01 870% 500 million pieces $5,690
$0.005 430% 1 billion pieces $11,380
Two, deflation engine: The value logic behind 12,833% destruction rate
Shiba Inu's destruction mechanism is experiencing explosive growth:
Destruction data surged: The destruction volume reached 13 million pieces within 24 hours, with a year-on-year destruction rate soaring by 12,833.29%, setting a new high since May 2022;
Supply reduction results: Total circulation fell from 590 trillion pieces to 584.53 trillion pieces, with cumulative destruction exceeding 5.47 trillion pieces;
Economic model analysis: Each transaction automatically burns 0.002% of tokens, combined with official periodic batch destruction, forming a closed loop of "transaction means deflation."
On-chain data verification: Etherscan shows that in the past 30 days, 37 addresses have destroyed more than 10 billion SHIB in batches, including 3 whale addresses that destroyed over 100 billion in a single transaction, suspected institutional participation in deflation layout.
Three, technical signals: Neutral area hides bullish momentum
▶ RSI indicator interpretation
Current RSI value of 41.24 is in the neutral range, exhibiting three major characteristics:
Compared to last week's oversold area of 35.6, significant recovery has occurred, and buying power is beginning to gather;
Highly similar to the 40.8 indicator pattern before launching in October 2024;
The slope of the 14-day RSI has steepened, indicating accelerated short-term momentum.
▶ MACD indicator anomaly
Green bar length shortened by 52%, bearish momentum weakened;
The distance between the fast line (12EMA) and the slow line (26EMA) has narrowed to 0.00000032, and a golden cross is about to form;
Historical backtesting shows that when the MACD golden cross coincides with a surge in destruction volume, the 30-day average increase reaches 178%.
Four, risk-reward ratio assessment
✅ Potential catalyst
Ethereum Layer 2 integration: Shibarium testnet TPS broke 500, transfer costs may drop by 70% after mainnet deployment;
Compliance progress: The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission plans to include SHIB in the "recognized virtual assets" whitelist;
Institutional holding changes: Grayscale's GBTC similar product premium rate has risen to -5.8%, creating a new high in 6 months.
⚠ Downside risk
Macroeconomic liquidity tightening: The probability of a Fed rate hike in July has risen to 32%, putting pressure on risk asset valuations;
Competitive product diversion effect: New MEME coins like PEPE and FLOKI have seen inflows exceeding SHIB by 3 times in 24 hours;
Destruction mechanism failure: If the daily destruction volume falls below 1 million pieces, the deflation logic will be questioned.
Five, strategy recommendations and position management
Regular investment plan: Invest $2,000 monthly, can purchase 175 million pieces at the current price, with a total holding of 630 million pieces over 36 months, if it reaches
0.01 thus market value 6.3 million;
Step-wise profit-taking: Set at 0.005 (first target),
0.01 (second target), $0.05 (ultimate target) three-tier profit-taking line, reduce holdings by 30% each time a target is reached;
Hedging configuration: Control SHIB position within 15% of the investment portfolio, paired with 30% Bitcoin, 25% stablecoins, and 30% blue-chip altcoins.
Market warning: Cryptocurrency investment carries high uncertainty, the above calculations are based on historical data extrapolation and do not constitute investment advice. SHIB, as a highly volatile asset, may experience price fluctuations of over 30% within 24 hours; it is recommended to participate with no more than 5% of investable assets.
