Compiled by: Blockchain in Plain Language
90% of cryptocurrency investment is waiting, and 10% is the fireworks. You have to endure long bear markets, tedious sideways fluctuations, and life-questioning false breakouts. But then... bang! Everything aligns. Liquidity surges, macro risks fade, and the candlestick charts ignite again like in 2021.
We may be entering that rare 6-12 month golden window. Those who positioned themselves early could reap significant rewards. You don't want to fall asleep at this moment.
Let's analyze why now might be a crucial moment.
Candlestick charts are showing green lights—momentum is strong.
First, let's look at the weekly MACD. Bitcoin and Ethereum have just confirmed a bullish crossover. Not on the daily chart—on the weekly! This is the dream of trend traders. Coupled with the following points:
Ethereum breaks above the 200-day moving average.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) turns bullish (remember, in a real bull market, RSI can stay overbought for months).
Bitcoin easily stands firm above the weekly super trend line
Ethereum is slightly lagging but is catching up.
In short, technical analysis shows that the market is overall strong. These are not weak signals—they are multiple confirmation indicators that often appear before historic surges.
M2 money supply is expanding again.
Here is your cheat code: Bitcoin's price has an 83% correlation with the global M2 money supply.
When M2 (i.e., global liquidity) expands, Bitcoin tends to soar. This is not absolute science, but over time, you'll find patterns. Right now, M2 is rising rapidly.
The tide is rising, and Bitcoin often lifts along with it. And when Bitcoin rises, the entire market takes off.
Macro environment: from chaos to calm
April was brutal. Trade wars, bond market chaos, global tensions, fears of economic recession. Every pessimist found their stage.
But what about now? Peace negotiations, trade agreements, cooling inflation, positive GDP forecasts (the Atlanta Fed even predicts a 2.4% growth). The market has basically digested the macro chaos and is starting to look forward.
All of this paves the way for the following scenario:
The economy may be stronger.
Liquidity is being injected, not tightened.
Volatility is decreasing, and direction is clearer.
And the timing is just right—the four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin indicates that now is the time to act.
Institutional funds are pouring in.
This is not just a feeling. There is real power driving the market:
MicroStrategy continues to buy Bitcoin like it's buying oxygen.
The spot Bitcoin ETF has gone live, and older investors (boomers) are rushing to buy.
Dozens of altcoin ETFs may be launching soon.
Legislation supporting cryptocurrency is advancing in Congress.
Even the SEC seems to be scaling back its 'witch hunt' actions against cryptocurrency.
This kind of institutional consistency was something we couldn't even dream of two years ago. The U.S. government, which once threatened to 'shut down cryptocurrency,' now wants to become the center of the cryptocurrency world.
This is not a narrative; it's a plot twist.
How to respond correctly
Don't let enthusiasm ruin your strategy. A bull market rewards discipline, not FOMO (fear of missing out).
Here are the action guidelines:
Go with the flow. Don't try to short the pullbacks; now is not the time.
Buy the dip. A pullback is not a sell signal; it's an opportunity to enter.
Set clear goals. Choose your tokens wisely, set limit orders, and keep some funds reserved for emergencies.
Develop a sell plan. You need an exit strategy; don't let profits slip away. Taking profits in batches is a good method.
Pay attention to macro catalysts. The next Federal Reserve meeting is in June, and a rate cut could extend the rally further. But if not, be prepared for volatility.
We may see a local top in July or August—possibly when Bitcoin reaches around $150,000. This is not absolute, but based on the global M2 trend, it's a reasonable scenario.
Final thoughts
The current situation is almost perfect. Weekly technical indicators are strongly bullish, M2 liquidity is rising, macro chaos is fading, and institutions are hoarding Bitcoin as if they were buying prime real estate.
Opportunities like this are rare. If you haven't entered the market yet, you are already late. If you have entered, your task is to stick to the plan.
This bull market within a bull market may have already begun.
