Compiled: Vernacular Blockchain
The market is doing what it does best: testing your conviction.
Altcoins continue to decline against BTC, with BTC dominance approaching cycle highs. Market sentiment is divided, with some watching coldly and others aggressively going long on small-cap coins.
This is not a signal to shout 'altcoin season' tomorrow, don't FOMO.
1. Yes, we are still in a bull market, but you are not late.
Bitcoin remains the main character. From ETF fund inflows to corporate capital allocation (GameStop, Trump Media, Strive), institutional confidence in BTC keeps its engine running hot.
This is also one of the reasons for the weak performance of altcoins—BTC has absorbed most of the liquidity. Before this trend cools down, ETH and large-cap coins will not take off, let alone small-cap coins.
Altcoin season will begin when BTC dominance clearly retreats, not while it is still consolidating at cycle highs.
2. Cycles are important, but market structure is equally critical.
Indeed, the crypto market generally follows a four-year cycle, driven by BTC halving, liquidity conditions, and technology adoption cycles. From a broader perspective, 2025 looks like the second half, where parabolic trends usually emerge.
But this is also a phase where false signals occur frequently. In 2021, altcoins surged after ETH surpassed BTC. What about now? ETH/BTC is still weak. If you jumped into small-cap coins before ETH turned, you came too early and have too much risk exposure.
A smarter approach is to accumulate strong assets. Track large-cap coins that show real accumulation (like $AAVE, $UNI, $LINK).
3. Short-term opportunities are better, but not confirmed yet.
It is correct for traders to focus on key areas. Breaking out of the range high may ignite high beta altcoin trends, but position management requires discipline:
Use BTC as a trigger signal, not as a trading target.
Accumulate spot on trending altcoins like $HYPE, $AAVE, $CRV, low risk.
Focus on ETH/BTC. Without ETH's strength, there is no real altcoin season, period.
4. No, you will not become 200 times richer overnight.
True asymmetric returns come from early positioning and heavily investing in narratives that genuinely attract attention:
On-chain perpetual contracts (Hyperliquid, Virtual)
ETH LRT protocols with real cash flow.
DeFi projects conducting actual buybacks (AAVE).
Chain-native winners (Base, Solana, BNB—not micro-cap coins yet).
The sequence for starting altcoin season:
BTC has reached a new all-time high (completed).
ETH breakout (pending).
Large-cap coins are rising (some signs).
Mid-cap coins are following up.
Small-cap coins are taking off vertically.
We are currently between Phase 1 and Phase 2.
Be patient, add positions during pullbacks.
