Compiled by: Blockchain in Plain Language
The market is doing what it does best: testing your conviction.
Altcoins continue to decline against BTC, with BTC dominance nearing cycle highs. Market sentiment is divided, with some watching coldly while others aggressively long low-cap coins.
This is not a signal to shout 'altcoin season' tomorrow, don't FOMO.
1. Yes, we are still in a bull market, but you are not late
Bitcoin is still the main character. From ETF fund inflows to corporate capital allocation (GameStop, Trump Media, Strive), institutional confidence in BTC keeps its engine running hot.
This is also one of the reasons for the poor performance of altcoins - BTC has siphoned off most of the liquidity. Before this trend cools down, ETH and large-cap coins will not take off, let alone low-cap coins.
The altcoin season will begin when BTC's dominance significantly declines, not now when it is still consolidating at a cycle high.
2. The cycle is important, but market structure is equally crucial
Indeed, the crypto market generally follows a four-year cycle, driven by BTC halving, liquidity conditions, and technology adoption cycles. From a broad perspective, 2025 seems like the second half, and parabolic trends usually emerge here.
But this is also a phase of frequent false signals. In 2021, altcoins surged after ETH surpassed BTC. What about now? ETH/BTC remains weak. If you rushed into low-cap coins before ETH flipped, you came too early and have too much risk exposure.
A smarter approach is to hoard strong assets. Track large-cap coins that show real accumulation (like $AAVE, $UNI, $LINK).
3. Short-term opportunities are better, but not confirmed yet
It's correct for traders to focus on key areas. A breakout above the range high could ignite a rally in high-beta altcoins, but position management requires discipline:
Use BTC as a trigger signal, not as a trading target.
Spot accumulation on trending altcoins like $HYPE, $AAVE, $CRV, low risk.
Focus on ETH/BTC. Without ETH's strength, there is no real altcoin season, period.
4. No, you won't get rich overnight by 200 times
True asymmetric returns come from early positioning and heavily investing in narratives that genuinely attract attention:
On-chain perpetual contracts (Hyperliquid, Virtual)
ETH LRT protocol with real cash flow
DeFi projects with actual buybacks (AAVE)
Chain-native winners (Base, Solana, BNB - not micro-cap coins yet)
The initiation sequence of the altcoin season:
BTC reaches an all-time high (completed).
ETH breaks out (pending).
Large-cap coins rise (some signs).
Mid-cap coins follow.
Low-cap coins take off vertically.
We are currently between Phase 1 and Phase 2.
Stay patient, add positions during pullbacks.
