Compiled by: Plain Language Blockchain
The market is doing what it does best: testing your conviction.
Altcoins continue to decline against BTC, with BTC dominance approaching cycle highs. Market sentiment is divided; some are watching coldly, while others aggressively long on low-cap coins.
This is not a signal to shout 'altcoin season' tomorrow, don't FOMO.
1. Yes, we are still in a bull market, but you are not late.
Bitcoin remains the star. From ETF inflows to corporate allocations (GameStop, Trump Media, Strive), institutional confidence in BTC keeps its engine running hot.
This is also one of the reasons for weak altcoin performance - BTC has siphoned off most of the liquidity. Before this trend cools down, ETH and large-cap coins won't take off, let alone low-cap coins.
Altcoin season will begin when BTC dominance clearly falls, not now while it is still consolidating at cycle highs.
2. Cycles are important, but market structure is equally crucial.
Indeed, the crypto market generally follows a four-year cycle driven by BTC halving, liquidity conditions, and technology adoption cycles. From a macro perspective, 2025 looks like the second half, where parabolic trends usually emerge.
But this is also a phase with frequent false signals. In 2021, altcoins surged after ETH surpassed BTC. What about now? ETH/BTC is still weak. If you jumped into low-cap coins before ETH flipped, you came in too early and have too much risk exposure.
A smarter approach is to accumulate strong assets. Track large-cap coins that show real accumulation (like $AAVE, $UNI, $LINK).
3. Short-term opportunities are better, but not yet confirmed.
It's correct for traders to focus on key areas. Breaking through the high of the range could ignite a high beta altcoin rally, but position management requires discipline:
Using BTC as the trigger signal, rather than as a trading target.
Spot accumulation on trending altcoins like $HYPE, $AAVE, $CRV is low risk.
Focus on ETH/BTC. Without ETH's strength, there is no real altcoin season.
4. No, you won't get rich overnight by 200 times.
True asymmetric returns come from early positioning and heavily investing in narratives that really draw attention:
On-chain perpetual contracts (Hyperliquid, Virtual)
ETH LRT protocol with real cash flow
DeFi projects conducting actual buybacks (AAVE)
Chain-native winners (Base, Solana, BNB - not yet micro-cap coins)
Order of starting altcoin season:
BTC hits a new all-time high (completed).
ETH breaks through (pending).
Large-cap coins are rising (some signs).
Mid-cap coins follow suit.
Low-cap coins take off vertically.
We are currently between Phase 1 and Phase 2.
Be patient and add positions during pullbacks.
