Compiled by: Plain Language Blockchain
The market is doing what it does best: testing your conviction.
Altcoins continue to fall against BTC, and BTC's dominance is close to cycle highs. Market sentiment is divided; some are watching coldly, while others are aggressively going long on low-cap coins.
This is not a signal to shout 'altcoin season' tomorrow, don’t FOMO.
1. Yes, we are still in a bull market, but you are not late.
Bitcoin remains the main player. From ETF capital inflows to corporate capital allocation (GameStop, Trump Media, Strive), institutional confidence in BTC keeps its engine running hot.
This is also one of the reasons for the weak performance of altcoins — BTC has absorbed most of the liquidity. Before this trend cools down, ETH and large-cap coins won’t take off, let alone low-cap coins.
Altcoin season will start when BTC's dominance clearly declines, not while it is still consolidating at cycle highs.
2. The cycle is important, but market structure is equally critical.
Indeed, the crypto market generally follows a four-year cycle driven by BTC halving, liquidity conditions, and technological adoption cycles. From a broader perspective, 2025 seems like the second half; parabolic trends usually emerge at this time.
However, this is also a phase where false signals are frequent. In 2021, after ETH surpassed BTC, altcoins surged. What about now? ETH/BTC remains weak. If you jumped into low-cap coins before ETH flipped, you arrived too early and have too much risk exposure.
A smarter approach is to accumulate strong assets. Track large-cap coins showing real accumulation (like $AAVE, $UNI, $LINK).
3. Short-term opportunities are better, but not yet confirmed
Traders focusing on key areas is correct. A breakout above the range high could ignite a rally in high beta altcoins, but position management requires discipline.
Use BTC as a trigger signal, not as a trading target.
Accumulate spot positions on trending altcoins like $HYPE, $AAVE, $CRV, with low risk.
Focus on ETH/BTC. Without ETH's strength, there is no real altcoin season, period.
4. No, you will not get rich overnight 200 times.
True asymmetric returns come from early positioning and heavy investment in narratives that genuinely attract attention.
On-chain perpetual contracts (Hyperliquid, Virtual)
ETH LRT protocol with real cash flow
DeFi projects conducting actual buybacks (AAVE)
Chain-native winners (Base, Solana, BNB — not yet micro-cap coins)
The sequence for the start of altcoin season:
BTC reached a new all-time high (completed).
ETH breakout (pending).
Large-cap coins rising (some signs).
Mid-cap coins following.
Low-cap coins taking off vertically.
We are currently between Phase 1 and Phase 2.
Stay patient and add positions during pullbacks.
