#亚利桑那比特币储备 $BTC

Long time no see, family. Happy May Day! Here are some thoughts on the big pancake.

1. Confirmation of Key Price Levels

1. Support Level: 96,400 (turns into support after breaking)

2. First Resistance Level: 99,400 (short-term short entry area)

3. Ultimate Resistance Level: 102,400 (trend reversal observation area)

2. Long and Short Strategy Execution Plan

(1) Upward Breakthrough Phase

- Trigger Condition: Price effectively breaks 96,400 (suggest observing the 1-hour closing price for stability)

- Bullish Strategy:

- Initial Entry: 96,500-96,800 range

- Stop Loss Setting: 95,800 (below the previous low)

- Target Levels:

- First Target 99,200 (reduce position by 50%)

- Ultimate Target 102,200-102,500 range

(2) Resistance Level Pullback Phase

- 99,400 Short Strategy:

- Entry Signal: Appearance of any of the following patterns

- 4-hour chart pin bar

- Bearish engulfing

- RSI overbought (>70) divergence

- Position Management:

- Initial Short Position 99,400-99,600

- Additional Position Opportunity at 100,000 round number (needs to be combined with shrinking trading volume)

- Stop Loss Setting: 100,800 (break above previous high)

- Target Level:

- Main Target 96,400 (1:3 risk-reward ratio)

- Break below looking towards 94,000 (previous wave low)

(3) Ultimate Resistance Area Strategy

- 102,400 Area Layout:

- Short Conditions:

- Weekly TD sequence shows 9

- Derivative indicators show overbought (recommended to combine with MACD histogram divergence)

- Stop Loss Setting: 103,800 (break above historical high by 3%)

- Medium-term Target: 92,000 (measured theoretical drop of head and shoulders pattern)

2. Momentum Confirmation:

- Requirements when breaking 96,400:

- RSI(14) > 55

- Trading volume increases by 30% compared to the average of the previous 5 days

3. Volatility Assessment:

- Bollinger Band width breaks above the average of the previous 20 days

- ATR(14) > 2.5% of current price

5. Handling Abnormal Situations

1. Response to False Breakout:

- If price quickly breaks below 95,800:

- Close all long positions

- Observe the 92,000-93,500 support area

- Wait for a bottom pattern to appear on the 4-hour chart before re-entering

2. Strong Breakout above 102,400:

- Trigger Condition: Continuous closing above 103,000 for 2 days

- Response Plan:

- Reverse to go long (reduce position by half)

- Target 105,600 (1.618 extension level)