Table of contents:
1. This week's large token unlock data: 40 million tokens are set for a massive unlock;
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly performance of popular coins/fund flows;
3. Spot ETF dynamics;
4.#BTC liquidation map data;
5. Key macro events of the week and important forecasts for the crypto market.
1. This week's large token unlock data;
This week, multiple tokens will undergo a one-time unlock. The following is sorted by unlock value:
The official meme coin of U.S. President Trump will unlock $321 million worth of vested tokens on April 18. Data shows that 40 million Trump tokens will be released through a cliff unlock, meaning these tokens will be fully available all at once. Given that the current trading price of these tokens is around $8, this unlock will result in approximately $321 million worth of supply flooding the market.
Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock approximately 20 million tokens on April 18 at 8 AM, accounting for 4.65% of the current circulation, valued at about $81 million;
Connex (CONX) will unlock approximately 4.33 million tokens on April 15 at 8 AM, accounting for 376.3% of the current circulation, valued at about $77 million;
QuantixAI (QAI) will unlock approximately 566,000 tokens on April 18 at 8 AM, accounting for 3960.24% of the current circulation, valued at about $49.9 million;
Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock approximately 15.53 million tokens on April 19 at 8 AM, accounting for 25.72% of the current circulation, valued at about $35.25 million;
Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock approximately 92.65 million tokens on April 16 at 9 PM, accounting for 2.01% of the current circulation, valued at about $28.5 million;
deBridge (DBR) will unlock approximately 1.14 billion tokens on April 17 at 8 AM, accounting for 63.24% of the current circulation, valued at about $26.5 million;
Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens on April 15 at 8 AM, accounting for 4.37% of the current circulation, valued at about $1,670;
Omni Network (OMNI) will unlock approximately 8.21 million tokens on April 17 at 8 AM, accounting for 42.89% of the current circulation, valued at about $1,630;
Melania Meme (MELANIA) will unlock approximately 26.25 million tokens on April 18 at 8 AM, accounting for 17.5% of the current circulation, valued at about $1,310;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens on April 18 at 8 AM, accounting for 1.37% of the current circulation, valued at about $1,060;
Sei (SEI) will unlock approximately 55.56 million tokens on April 15 at 8 PM, accounting for 1.14% of the current circulation, valued at about $990;
ApeCoin (APE) will unlock approximately 15.6 million tokens on April 17 at 8:30 PM, accounting for 1.95% of the current circulation, valued at about $680;
Onyxcoin (XCN) will unlock approximately 29,600 tokens on April 15 at 8 AM, accounting for 0.89% of the current circulation, valued at about $580.
The unlocking situations of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on the related markets. The above refers to the UTC+8 time, and this week we should focus on the negative effects brought by these tokens due to unlocking, avoiding spot positions and seeking short opportunities in contracts. The image is based on CoinAnk data.
We believe that the multiple token unlock events this week will significantly impact market liquidity and price trends, especially the potential selling pressure caused by high circulation ratios and project backgrounds. Below are the key points:
High-value unlocks dominate market sentiment: Trump's official meme coin (TRUMP) ranks first with a unlock amount of $321 million, accounting for 20% of the circulation. Although the current price remains stable at $8, historical data shows its price volatility is severe (having shrunk by 83% from its peak), and the number of holders has sharply decreased (from 817,000 to 637,000), with most chips concentrated in a few addresses. If the team chooses to sell, the imbalance between increased supply and insufficient liquidity may exacerbate downward price pressure. Furthermore, the RTR token previously launched by the Trump family plummeted 90% due to rumors, indicating high market sensitivity to politically linked projects.
High circulation ratio projects present significant risks: Connex (CONX) and QuantixAI (QAI) have unlock circulation ratios of 376.3% and 3960%, far exceeding normal market levels. Such high ratio releases are typically accompanied by flaws in the token economic model, potentially triggering panic selling. Especially for QAI, which saw a nearly 40-fold increase in circulation, prices may face a cliff-like drop without strong fundamental support.
The short-term impact of leading projects is limited, but caution is warranted regarding cumulative effects: Fasttoken (FTN) and Arbitrum (ARB) have relatively low unlock ratios (4.65% and 2.01%), but due to FTN's stable market performance recently (price around $3.99, circulation rate 43.63%), short-term selling pressure may be controllable. However, as a leading Layer2, even with an unlock amount of $28.5 million, the ecological application demand of ARB may partially offset the selling impact. Nonetheless, multiple projects releasing simultaneously could still lead to fragmented market liquidity, creating a 'bloodletting effect.'
Structural risks in the market are subtly emerging: Meme tokens (like MELANIA) and low market cap projects (such as deBridge unlocking 1.14 billion tokens) further highlight the market's speculative nature. Combined with the fact that 80% of the TRUMP token's supply is controlled by the team and will be unlocked over three years, there is a long-term risk of 'slow dilution.' Additionally, historical cases show that after large-scale unlocks, the average token price drop can reach 10%-30%, so investors should be cautious of short-term volatility.
In this wave of unlocking, the political attributes of TRUMP and the fragility of projects with high circulation ratios constitute major risk points. The market should pay attention to team movements and on-chain chip distribution changes. Investors are advised to prioritize assessing the project's fundamentals and the ownership of the unlocked tokens (such as team, institutions, or community) to avoid irrational volatility impacts.
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly performance of popular coins/fund flows by sector.
CoinAnk data shows that over the past seven days, the crypto market has seen net inflows categorized by concept sectors, with Ethereum ecosystem, L1, smart contracts, Avalanche ecosystem, #BSC, Polygon ecosystem, and DeFi being the five sectors that achieved net inflows. The top-performing tokens among the top 500 by market cap in the past week include #aergo, #XCN, DOGINME, #GODS, and SWFTC, which can continue to be prioritized for strong trading opportunities.
3. Dynamics of spot ETF funds.
CoinAnk data shows that the total on-chain holding of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded 1.1 million BTC, currently reaching about 1.133 million BTC, accounting for 5.71% of the current BTC supply, with the on-chain holding value reaching about $96.5 billion.
Gold ETF inflows reached a three-year high, with PAXG and XAUT outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market.
We believe that the Bitcoin spot ETF holding has reached 1.13 million BTC (accounting for 5.71%), paralleling the phenomenon of gold tokens (PAXG, XAUT) reaching new market caps, revealing the dual evolution paths of the crypto market under macro uncertainties:
1. The deepening of institutionalization and layered value storage. The value of Bitcoin ETF holdings has reached $96.5 billion, indicating that its logic as 'digital gold' in institutional allocation is still strengthening, but a 27% price drop this year highlights a reduction in liquidity premium. Meanwhile, the 24% increase in gold tokens and the $1.4 billion market cap of the RWA sector reflect that traditional safe-haven assets are penetrating the crypto market through tokenization, forming a liquidity transmission chain of 'physical gold → on-chain gold → Bitcoin,' weakening Bitcoin's exclusive safe-haven status.
2. Fund diversion and risk preference reconstruction. Gold ETFs saw inflows of 226.5 tons in Q1 (60% from North America), resonating with the net minting of gold tokens worth $42.7 million, suggesting that traditional asset management institutions are hedging geopolitical risks through compliant crypto tools. This fund diversion has intensified the internal liquidity competition in the crypto market—Bitcoin ETFs are attracting institutional funds, while gold tokens capture safe-haven demand, leading altcoins (down 30% this year) into a liquidity vacuum.
3. The rise of RWA narratives and changes in market structure. The explosion of gold tokens is merely the prologue to the RWA revolution, successfully validating the feasibility of putting physical assets on-chain. If major assets such as real estate and government bonds accelerate tokenization in the future, it may reshape the valuation system of the crypto market: Bitcoin may retreat to the narrative of 'digital scarcity,' while RWA assets attract traditional capital through cash flow anchoring mechanisms. However, caution is needed regarding regulatory arbitrage risks, as the SEC may incorporate gold tokens into a securities framework for review.
In the short term, the crypto market may continue the differentiation pattern of 'core assets (BTC, RWA) resisting declines - altcoins under pressure,' and Bitcoin needs to break through the miner cost line to block negative feedback. In the medium to long term, the depth of integration between RWA and traditional finance will determine whether the crypto market can break through the current size ceiling and form a real cross-market capital bridge.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks through $88,800, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $2.25 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $80,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $4.5 billion.
We believe that the current Bitcoin price has formed a key liquidation threshold in the range of $80,000 to $88,000, with both long and short sides engaged in fierce confrontation. If Bitcoin breaks through $88,000, it will trigger the forced liquidation of approximately $2.25 billion in short positions, mainly due to the 'short squeeze' effect caused by the price breaking through key resistance levels—large stop-loss orders being triggered could accelerate price increases, forming a positive feedback loop. Notably, this value is significantly higher than the previously predicted $842 million, reflecting that market leverage levels have been continuously rising with the price increase.
Conversely, if the price falls below the $80,000 support level, it is expected to lead to liquidations of long positions amounting to as much as $4.5 billion, which is twice the intensity of short liquidations, indicating that current market sentiment leans towards risk aversion. This asymmetrical liquidation pressure suggests that downside risks are more destructive: once the critical support is breached, systematic trading and panic selling may form a negative spiral, leading to short-term liquidity exhaustion. From a technical perspective, the difference in liquidation intensity values stems from the liquidity distribution at different price ranges, with higher 'liquidation columns' representing more high-leverage contracts concentrated at that price level, resulting in a stronger market response when prices reach that area.
This long-short game pattern highlights that the current market is in a high volatility sensitivity period. Traders should beware of potential liquidity siphoning effects after price breaks through thresholds, while also monitoring changes in open contract volumes and funding rates, as these indicators will provide early signals for shifts in market sentiment, preventing market failures under extreme conditions.
5. Key macro events of the week and important forecasts for the crypto market.
April 14: Trump invites El Salvador President Nayib Bukele to a White House meeting to discuss bilateral cooperation and diplomatic relations; KernelDAO plans its TGE on April 14; the trial of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm is scheduled for April 14, 2025.
April 15: U.S. crypto investors need to submit their 2024 tax returns before April 15; (Vitalik: The story of Ethereum) will be available on Apple TV and Prime Video; Shardeum mainnet will go live.
April 17: At 1:15 AM, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Chicago Economic Club; additionally, multiple Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively this week.
April 18: TRUMP will unlock 40 million tokens, valued at over $400 million.
We believe that this week's macro events and cryptocurrency market dynamics present a multi-dimensional intertwined impact pattern, requiring a comprehensive assessment that combines policies, technology, and market sentiment:
1. Political cooperation and regulatory games. Trump invites the President of El Salvador to discuss bilateral cooperation, which may further promote El Salvador as a model sovereign Bitcoin nation, strengthening the strategic position of cryptocurrencies in cross-border payments. Previously, the Trump administration had repeatedly signaled support for crypto assets, including proposals to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves, which may boost long-term market expectations for policy friendliness. However, the advancement of the Tornado Cash developer's trial (April 14) highlights the continued high pressure from regulators on privacy protocols, which may exacerbate short-term concerns about compliance risks for decentralized protocols.
2. Project progress and market liquidity. KernelDAO's TGE (Token Generation Event) and Shardeum mainnet launch (April 15) will introduce new funds and user traffic. As a critical node for project start, a successful TGE may attract speculative funds, but caution is needed regarding liquidity dilution risks after token unlocking. In addition, the TRUMP token unlocking 40 million tokens on April 18 (worth over $400 million) may trigger selling pressure from holders, especially since this token is highly associated with Trump, and market absorption capacity needs attention.
3. Macroeconomics and monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and several officials will speak intensively (April 17), and the market will interpret signals regarding the interest rate path. If the speeches are hawkish, it may suppress risk asset preferences; conversely, if they hint at interest rate cuts or delaying balance sheet reduction, it may boost the demand for Bitcoin as an 'anti-stagflation asset.' Recent analysts pointed out that if the U.S. debt market falls into chaos due to tariff policies (like those implemented on April 2), it may prompt funds to shift toward Bitcoin. Additionally, the U.S. tax deadline (April 15) could trigger a short-term selling spree, but historical data shows such impacts are often temporary.
4. Narrative-driven and technical ecology. (Vitalik: The story of Ethereum) A documentary will launch (April 15) to strengthen the consensus of the Ethereum community, along with the Shardeum mainnet release, which may drive the heat of the Layer2 ecosystem. Recently, after Bitcoin broke $85,000, market sentiment has turned optimistic, and if the Ethereum ecosystem also strengthens, it could create a 'dual-mainline' rotation pattern.
This week, the crypto market is expected to exhibit high volatility, with supportive policy benefits (such as Trump's cooperation) and technological advancements, but token unlocks, regulatory events, and macro uncertainties may trigger short-term corrections. In the medium to long term, if the Trump administration's crypto strategy continues to be implemented, it could inject institutional dividends into the market, while Federal Reserve policies and tariff effects remain key variables. Investors need to pay attention to whether Bitcoin can hold the key level of $85,000 and how the market reacts after the TRUMP token unlock.
