Thinking about today's market, the current market is like a "calm period" after a storm. Although the limelight has temporarily subsided, the market turmoil has not completely disappeared. Actions such as Xi's visit to Southeast Asia and Trump's planned visit to Saudi Arabia all suggest that China and the United States are preparing for the next stage of the game. Trump's tariff policy this time is also step by step, from exempting electronic products to internal disagreements. Obviously, he himself is in a dilemma. On the surface, tough, in fact, it is more to maintain political support and face.

What the market is most worried about is the continued weakening of the US dollar system. If US debt loses its purchasing power, the consequences will be very serious. The recent surge in US debt interest rates has forced Trump to soften his position, and the Federal Reserve has also begun to show a dovish attitude. The key is that although US stocks are important, US debt is the core of the consensus of all parties in the United States.

From the data, the US Buffett Index has exceeded 180%, far exceeding the historical high, which indicates that the future returns of US stocks will become negligible. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in June, it may trigger debt defaults and even trigger a financial crisis.

Next, the situation of "bear cycle + shock game" is likely to happen. U.S. debt is like a time bomb, and the market will continue to be anxious about it, while Trump's policy is like a detonator, which may aggravate the situation at any time. Although the general trend is bearish, it is still possible to capture rebound opportunities through band operations. Therefore, the overall strategy is bearish, but it will not suppress the bears, and it is also necessary to be prepared to operate against the trend when the rebound occurs.

As for Bitcoin, it actually has the same logic as the U.S. stock market, which is driven by funds. Now the Federal Reserve dare not release water easily because the entire market has not found the "real depression". Rash release of water will only push up inflation. Therefore, although liquidity is tight in the short term, in the long run, as long as the Federal Reserve and Wall Street reach an agreement, the logic of Bitcoin funds is still there, and the bull market trend is still there.

Back to the market, let's talk about BTC's ASR-VC indicator: the current price is still fluctuating above the middle track of the 4-hour channel, with neither liquidation and upward surge nor a large break, and the structure is still healthy. In the short term, it is still in a strong shock pattern. It is actually too early to short now. At least we have to wait until the price touches the historical supply area like 88,000, and it will be convincing if it is accompanied by a failed K-line. Now is still the observation period.$BTC