From the news perspective, Trump has stated in recent days that the mutual tariffs between the US and China may soon come to an end. He said at the White House, 'I do not want tariffs to continue to rise, because at a certain point, people will stop buying.' 'So I may not further increase taxes, and I may not even want to reach the current level of taxation, or even choose a lower tax rate.'
In terms of news, Trump's ambiguous attitude has resurfaced. He is already laying out another way forward, perhaps through coercion or persuasion towards the Federal Reserve, or softening and seeking peace with other countries. However, the massive amount of US debt maturing in June could indeed be a ticking time bomb embedded in the market.
The market is currently at a rather awkward critical point. The first is the observation of the news to make judgments on the next trend direction. The second is a rational wait as the current trend line slightly emerges. Considering that the consolidation period has lasted for about a week, it is not advisable to enter the market for either bulls or bears before a certain signal appears. The long-term outlook remains bearish, but that does not mean to short at this moment.
From the BTC structural perspective, there is upward momentum in the short term, but it is not advisable to randomly go long before a clear signal appears. A breakthrough above 88,000 and a stable position must be confirmed before observing whether to enter long positions, to prevent double inducements for bulls and bears.
From the daily net inflow of BTC, it has been relatively balanced in the past two days, indicating significant divergence between bulls and bears. Furthermore, the ratio of bulls to bears is also evenly matched. If BTC directly breaks upwards, a prerequisite condition is likely: if there is no massive capital entering the market, BTC will likely test down to around 83,000, then rebound to about 81,000. Otherwise, given the current situation, any increase would just be superficial.
Lastly, I would like to remind you: 'A major drop is still on the way.'
04-19 Saturday
