美国失业率

The big non-farm payrolls are in line with expectations
Still following the US 🇺🇸 soft landing scenario
On September 18, there is a high probability of 25 basis points

#非农就业数据即将公布 #美国失业率 #非农就业数据

#美联储何时降息？ #美国失业率 $BTC
According to the current unemployment rate trend, the probability of a 50bp rate cut in September is extremely high. Even if the unemployment rate accelerates further, the rate can be cut by 75bp in September
It doesn’t matter if Intel plummets, because Intel is just like Yageo Vanke in A-shares. In 2007, Yageo Vanke was a big blue chip, but it is no longer the case now. Those who look at semiconductors know that Intel is not good
The core now is whether the unemployment rate in the United States will continue to accelerate. 3.9 in April, 4.0 in May, 4.1 in June, and 4.3 in July are far beyond expectations. And I have said before that the unemployment rate is a lagging data. Once it accelerates, it often means that companies are starting to close down in large numbers and companies can’t bear it. Then the acceleration is often inertial. You can see Dongda in the second half of 2022 What will happen in the future
Of course, the Fed has another explanation. On the one hand, the sharp rise in unemployment this time is due to the hurricane, and temporary layoffs account for a part of it. On the other hand, the Fed believes that the rise in unemployment this time is not caused by layoffs, but because illegal immigrants have taken away job opportunities for legal workers
I don’t know whether the Fed is right, or the Fed is too arrogant, just like in 2018, or too cautious, just like in 2021. No one knows
Last month, when the unemployment rate came out, I mentioned that theoretically the Fed should cut interest rates. Inflation is not the core variable later, and the job market is more important, because the unemployment rate accelerated last month (it only deteriorated by 0.1% in the previous few months, and it directly deteriorated by 0.1% last month), so I said that interest rates will definitely be cut in September
But of course I still think there is a small probability of recession, but yesterday’s data still makes it difficult to determine the depth of the recession. The SAHM rule of the Federal Reserve is not absolute. Under the market probability pricing, the sharp rise in unemployment rate increases the risk of a deep recession. Therefore, the core data in the future is the unemployment rate. Other data should also be paid attention to. If the unemployment rate continues to rise rapidly, then the US economy may have a hard landing, and the global economy will be bloody. Don’t think that if the US stock market collapses, funds will flow back to A-shares. Domestic problems are domestic. Now only foreign trade is good. If the US economy collapses, foreign trade will also deteriorate, and domestic demand is expected to shrink faster. So the big one may just be the beginning... I hope the US recession is controllable.

Today's Interpretation | The Tariff Iron Fist Falls, the Cryptocurrency Market Plummets, Will It Fall Further?

Early yesterday morning, the United States announced a new round of tariff policies, and the cryptocurrency market plummeted directly, with BTC dropping over 3% at one point, while altcoins fared even worse, with a general decline exceeding 10%. After this drop, will it fall further? Has the sentiment been fully released?

Let's first look at the reactions from various countries:
European Union: 'Preparing' retaliatory measures
China: Urging the US to 'immediately' cancel tariffs, otherwise countermeasures will be taken
Germany: Calling on the EU to pressure the US
Japan: Calling the tariffs 'regrettable' and seeking exemptions
Canada: Preparing countermeasures for the current tariffs
Mexico: Planning to implement broader responses on April 3
South Korea: Starting to provide emergency support to affected industries

To summarize: Everyone is unhappy, but most are still watching. In the short term, the bearish sentiment from the tariffs has mostly been released, and the market pricing is also about done. But what truly causes panic in the market is the expectation of an economic recession.

What is the market waiting for now?
Technical aspects — BTC has short-term rebound demand; today it hasn't accelerated downward, and the bears may need to cover their positions. Movements of the US stock market — If US stocks open low and continue to fall tonight, BTC is likely to drop further.

Non-Farm Payroll Data & Powell's Speech — Both data points will be released tonight, and Powell will publicly respond to the tariff issue for the first time, which may result in unexpected announcements.

How does Non-Farm Payroll data affect BTC?
Unemployment rate lower than expected → Economy good → No interest rate cuts → Bearish for BTC
Unemployment rate higher than expected → Expectations of economic recession rise → But inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve cannot easily cut rates → Still bearish for BTC

Whether the economy is strong or expectations of recession are rising, both are not friendly to BTC. The core logic for BTC to rise is the Federal Reserve's easing, but the current market environment does not support rate cuts at all.

What to do next?
If US stocks continue to fall tonight, BTC may not hold the 83,000 position.
If the Asian market rebounds first, it is likely a short-selling opportunity; selling high is the way to go.
But if BTC does not rebound and continues to decline, it is not advisable to chase the shorts, as the risks will increase.

The market is at its most interesting time; don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations. The key is still to watch the Federal Reserve and the further changes in market sentiment. In the short term, I still view it as bearish and suggest cautious operations!
#美国加征关税 #美国失业率 $BTC

Interrupting news, Nick posted that according to the survey data of the New York Federal Reserve,

The proportion of individuals looking for work in the United States has risen to the highest level in 10 years.

Of course, it is not ruled out that there are many immigrant workers in this data that affect the data, but the strong excess supply in the job market will bring more choices to the demand side. Although it will reduce wage growth, it will also cause a short-term increase in unemployment, because more market supply brings more "cheap" options to companies.

The average expectation of unemployment has also jumped to a record high. In the face of the global economic crisis, which country is not worried?
#美国失业率 #BTC☀ $BTC

Preview of macro data on July 5: US unemployment rate/non-farm employment in June Recommended reading: ★★★★

US unemployment rate in June, unemployment data of the employment market in June provided by the US Department of Labor.

Data weight ★★★★
Data content: previous value 4% expected 4%
Data time: July 5, 2024 20:30

Data impact:
The unemployment rate directly shows the hot and cold situation of the employment market, and at the same time predicts the US economy, and has a great impact on the currently expected monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

The data is higher than expected and higher than the previous value, which is bad for the US economy and good for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts. It will rise, but the amplitude will not be too large, unless it is significantly higher than the previous period and expectations.
The data is in line with expectations and equal to the previous value, which is good for the US economy and good for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts. There is basically no fluctuation. The continuous unemployment of 4% cannot continue to promote the expectation of interest rate cuts.
The data is lower than expected and lower than the previous value, which is good for the US economy and bad for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts. It has fallen, and in the current state, it may lead to a large decline.

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US June seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment (10,000 people), non-agricultural employment in June as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Data weight ★★★★
Data content: previous value 27.2, expected 19, unit 10,000 people,
Data time: July 5, 2024 20:30

Data impact:
Also reflects the situation of the employment market. Due to the data that contrasted with the unemployment rate last month, this month's non-agricultural employment data may be distorted.

Tonight's non-agricultural data may be distorted due to the abnormality of last month's non-agricultural data. Once the data falls sharply, it is not possible to directly determine that the US employment market has cooled down rapidly. In fact, it can be interpreted as the removal of part-time or illegal immigrant labor data in market data statistics.

Focus on the unemployment rate.

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Personally, I expect that the unemployment rate is likely to be 4% with a small probability of 4.1%. The non-agricultural data should be between 18 and 19. It is expected that the non-agricultural data will decrease, but it should not be so large, although the non-agricultural data last month is indeed abnormal.

I wrote this in a hurry, so it's a bit sloppy.

#美国失业率 #美国非农数据 $BTC

United States October unemployment rate 4.1%, expected 4.1%, previous value 4.1%. (Jin Ten Data APP) #美国失业率

ETFs are slowly starting to show red
That is, the ETFs expected earlier are starting to be saturated in the short term, and even the previous profit-making stocks are flowing out
The US ETF hot money has almost entered the market, and now it is the turn of HK ETF to pass. The Americans are throwing the stocks at a high price to the buyers. Next, let's see how many leeks will take over HK ETFs (I feel that the data will be very poor after passing, and there will not be many orders)
So I personally think that the market will adjust in the short term [now in the middle of this stage], and the second wave of funds will continue to flow in and rise after a series of killings
So I am still not optimistic about the market in the short term.
I still take the needle and short.
#ETF

Speaking of which, this data is very scary. Now it is the weekend so there will be no ETF data, but I think the data on Monday is quite important. There is a high probability that it will still flow out, and it has accumulated for two days, so it will look bigger, which will scare a group of people again. And if the outflow continues for three days, it will cause some panic trading.

However, the outflow data on the 26th is less than that on the 25th, but it still does not explain too many problems. After all, BlackRock has not received any money for three days. If it starts to flow out next, it will panic.

Everyone is now dizzy and there is no logic in this market. So now everyone is more sensitive and nervous. Any news will cause a sharp rise and fall.

In addition, there will be several data to be announced from 5.1 to 5.3. At that time, it is estimated that there will be various shocks.

#美联储基准利率
#美国非农就业人数
#美国失业率
#美国ADP就业人数

Interpretation of macro data on July 2: US JOLTs job vacancies in May (forward-looking data of employment data)

US JOLTs job vacancies in May (10,000 people), a survey report on job vacancies and labor mobility in the job market provided by the US Department of Labor.

US JOLTs job vacancies in May (10,000 people), previous value 791.9 (805.9 before correction) expected 791 (expected 786.4 last weekend) announced value 8.14 million people,

This data comes from May, and the job vacancies in May will have a certain impact on the job market in June.
The data shows that the number of job vacancies increased in May, higher than expected and previous values, which means that recruitment activities will increase in the future June, stimulating the labor market to heat up and the unemployment rate to fall. At the same time, the increase in job recruitment also means that the company's benefits are good, the number of recruitment positions has been expanded, and more consumption has been brought in, which will bring certain pressure on inflation control, which is good for the US economy, the US dollar index and US stocks, and bad for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts.

The data shows that the layoff rate of private enterprises increased by 0.1% in April and is currently 1.2%, but the recruitment rate increased by 10% and is currently 4%. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployment rate in May is 1.22.

At the same time, it should be noted that the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment rate in May was 1.22, which was the lowest level in the United States before the mask. This means that for every unemployed person, there are 1.22 job vacancies. Although it seems to be surplus, it is the lowest level. Through this data, it can be seen that the US job market is still in a tense state and economic activities are slowing down overall.

The job vacancies data in April were adjusted down by 140,000. Compared with the unemployment rate in May, which rose to 4%, the current job vacancies in May increased by 220,000 compared with April, which may lead to a decline in the unemployment rate and ease the pressure on the job market.

The data has a positive impact on the labor market in the short term. In line with Powell's purification tonight, the labor market remains strong. From this point of view, once the unemployment rate in May is lower than that in May or continues to remain the same, it is not good for the expectation of interest rate cuts.

PS: The picture comes from the official website of the U.S. Department of Labor
#BTC走勢分析 $BTC #美国失业率