Today's thoughts on the cryptocurrency market. To be honest, this recent wave of market activity is quite paradoxical. The US dollar index has broken its range since last Friday, and logically, risk assets should be rising. However, the market's reaction has been tepid. Why? Because this time the dollar's weakness is not due to expectations of monetary easing, but rather because people are starting to worry that the economy is really about to decline, which is not a positive signal but rather a negative one.

Furthermore, Trump's recent erratic actions have added fuel to this already chaotic situation. He first stirred market anxiety with tariffs, and then there were rumors of wanting to dismiss Powell, seemingly determined to prevent the Federal Reserve and the capital market from finding any peace for even a second. Nick from The Wall Street Journal, often referred to as the “voice of the Federal Reserve,” published two articles in one day, saying he is serious about his intentions, and even White House advisors have warned him not to act recklessly. Indeed, even if it’s just speculation, it’s enough to stir market sentiment.

Some say that having a more 'compliant' chairman could lead to rapid interest rate cuts, which would be beneficial for the market. Don’t think too much of it. Kevin Warsh, whom Trump has pointed to, is a bona fide hawk and may not cooperate with easing measures upon taking office. Furthermore, the president's desire to dismiss Powell is not legally straightforward; it would challenge an old ruling from 1935. If it were to be overturned, the independence of the Federal Reserve would be rendered meaningless, and the US financial system would essentially become a tool of the president.

However, the market is currently betting on the “Trump put” — no matter how erratic he is, if there’s a problem in the US Treasury market, he will still have to step in. Currently, there is weak demand for Treasury auctions, and interest rates are soaring, with both pension funds and hedge funds selling off, approaching a critical point.

From a technical perspective on BTC, it has been oscillating in the 85,000 range for almost a week, with significant liquidity around 83,000, and a wave of grabbing could occur at any moment. Yesterday, a breakout from a converging triangle occurred, along with a pin bar, clearly indicating short-term profit-taking. It may first dip below 83,000 to attract bullish order blocks before rebounding. The target could be around 80, but there will be significant volatility in between, so operations need to be very cautious.

Just a reminder, the US market is closed for three days, and during low liquidity phases, it is easier to manipulate. Now is not the time to bet on direction but rather a stage of timing and patience. The battle between Trump and Powell has just begun, and the real explosive points may still lie with the Supreme Court.

Personally, I am currently leaning slightly bearish, in a phase of being bearish without shorting. You might want to observe a bit longer!