Macroeconomic interpretation: When the #比特币 price continues to drop to as low as $82,250, it faces the most severe survival test in three years—the large-scale shutdown of mining machines and the continuous outflow of ETF funds have created a double strangulation, while #特朗普关税政策 new policies, SEC regulation, and #朝鲜黑客 attacks are pouring salt into the wounds of the market. This sudden 'stress test' is reshaping the underlying logic of the entire crypto ecosystem.
The sound of machines roaring in the mining fields is becoming sparse, with more than half of Bitcoin mining machines caught in the 'electricity price squid game'. Data shows that at an electricity price of $0.06 per kilowatt-hour, 68 of the 135 mainstream mining machines are seeing daily earnings turn negative, with electricity costs for models like the Shennma M30S+ approaching 100%, equivalent to miners paying for electricity while barely breaking even. In a somewhat darkly humorous twist, the electricity cost absorption rate of former dominant machines like the Antminer S19 has reached 100%, making it a 'perfect loss machine'. However, there is hope in the crisis; the new generation of water-cooled mining machines, the S21XP series, with a 35% electricity cost ratio and a shutdown price of $29,000, is becoming a lifeboat for miners, and this arms race in computing power may accelerate the elimination of outdated mining machines.
The 'great escape of funds' from the ETF market is particularly alarming. Coinank data shows that since the U.S. election, the average holding price of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached $97,000, resulting in current holders facing an estimated paper loss of about $1.3 billion. On February 27, a single-day net outflow of $757 million set a new record, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing a daily loss of $420 million, breaking historical records. This 'stampede-style exit' resonates with the extreme value of the cryptocurrency fear index dropping to 10, bringing market sentiment back to the freezing point last seen during the 2022 LUNA collapse. Interestingly, some altcoins are performing a 'bloodsucking rally' against the trend, with Bitcoin's market share dropping sharply from 61% to 59.5% within two days.
At the same time, the largest holders of Bitcoin are buying in at lower prices; on-chain data shows that wallets holding at least 0.1% of circulating supply have increased their holdings by nearly 15,000 BTC when BTC was below $90,000, with a total value of about $1.28 billion.
The signals of reconciliation from the regulatory authorities have injected some warmth into the market. The SEC has reached a litigation suspension agreement with Sun Yuchen and the Tron Foundation, and this 'half-time break' mode is similar to the previous Binance and Coinbase cases. Although the SEC still insists on its involvement in 600,000 wash trades and illegal fundraising, the softening regulatory attitude suggests that compliance pathways are opening up. It's worth noting that Sun Yuchen's newly appointed World Liberty Financial has close ties with former U.S. President Trump, indicating that this litigation game may hide political undertones.
The black swan of geopolitical risks is still hovering. The Trump administration has revived the plan for a 25% EU tariff, and combined with weak new home sales data in the U.S., has successfully orchestrated a rollercoaster for the U.S. stock market. Tech stocks barely closed in the green due to Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report, but the crypto market has become an outlet for emotional release, with Bitcoin spiking to $82,256. More dramatically, the FBI confirmed that North Korean hackers stole $1.5 billion in assets from Bybit, a textbook-level on-chain money laundering operation involving the precise manipulation of thousands of addresses, akin to a real-life (Now You See Me). These geopolitical risks and security crises are testing the hedging attributes of crypto assets.
The Bitcoin market, standing at a crossroads, is facing a revaluation of value. The migration of computing power caused by the shutdown of mining machines may reshape the global mining landscape, with North American mining sites likely to become the biggest winners due to cheap electricity. The continuous bleeding of ETF funds has exposed the vulnerability of institutional investors. When the market fear index reaches its lowest point, historical experience tells us that this often represents the darkness before dawn—after the 'Black Thursday' in March 2020, Bitcoin achieved a 300% increase in six months. Now, with the deepening inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve (the 2/10 year spread narrowing to 17.7 basis points), the growing unrest in traditional financial markets may be brewing a new narrative for the crypto market.
This breakout battle in the winter is essentially a collision experiment between the crypto economy and traditional financial systems. When the alarm of mining machine shutdowns and the beeping of ETF redemptions resonate, while regulatory olive branches dance with geopolitical black swans, Bitcoin is undergoing the most complex stress test since its inception. Perhaps, as evidenced by the counter-trend rise of water-cooled mining machines, true technological innovation will never be buried by market fluctuations, and those investors who can navigate through cycles will ultimately reap the rewards when the ice and snow melt.
BTC data analysis:
Today's cryptocurrency fear and greed index has dropped to 10 (down from 21 yesterday), with Coinank data showing it has reached the lowest level since June 2022, indicating that market sentiment is in 'extreme fear'.
We believe that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has plummeted to 10 (a new low since June 2022). From the compound perspective of market sentiment and funding behavior, this extreme value not only reflects the drastic contraction of short-term liquidity but also reveals the deep characteristics of the current market structure and cycle position.
From the perspective of short-term triggers, this index reaching historical extremes often corresponds to deleveraging and a 'long squeeze'. Currently, the funding rate for perpetual contracts in the derivatives market is deeply negative (-0.2% to -0.5%), and exchange #BTC reserves have surged by 3.2%, indicating that panic selling has triggered large-scale deleveraging. It is worth noting that this round of emotional freezing coincides with the dual pressures of accelerated tapering by the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical conflicts, which have intensified the resonance effect with traditional risk assets, exacerbating liquidity squeezes.
The mid-term structural contradictions are reflected in the behavioral differentiation of market participants: on-chain data shows that the holdings of long-term holders (LTH) have increased by 1.8% against the trend, while short-term holders (STH) account for 76% of losses and sales, indicating that the transfer of chips from 'weak hands' to 'strong hands' is accelerating. Although this process exacerbates short-term volatility, it provides structural support for market bottoming.
In terms of historical cycle reference, after the index bottomed at 10 in June 2022, Bitcoin formed a long-term secondary bottom at $17,600 (the lowest near $15,500 in November 2022), and subsequently started a 600% upward cycle. The current market environment differs significantly from that time—spot ETFs have brought in an average of $830 million in institutional funding daily, and the total market value of stablecoins has exceeded $161 billion (up 39% from 2022), significantly thickening the liquidity buffer.
Extreme panic often breeds reversal opportunities, but caution is needed regarding the different paths to emotional recovery: if macro liquidity does not show a turning point (such as U.S. Treasury yields remaining high), the market may enter a 'low volatility bottoming' phase; conversely, if inflation data unexpectedly falls sharply, triggering a correction in interest rate pricing, crypto assets may lead the way in a highly elastic rebound. At this stage, investors need to pay more attention to the accumulation signals of on-chain whales and the resonance timing of ETF fund flow reversals.
