Macroeconomic Interpretation: Israeli intelligence agencies confirm that Iran plans to attack Israeli targets in Europe, prompting Israel to urgently initiate a plan to evacuate 100,000 expatriates. The Trump administration finds itself in a dilemma: despite the White House claiming it will decide within two weeks whether to militarily intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, Trump himself has returned to the golf course, while his core supporters openly oppose involvement in Middle Eastern hostilities. Notably, the crypto market displays a high sensitivity to war risks; the White House's statement about a 'two-week decision period' triggered a short-term surge of 0.55% in Bitcoin. The uncertainty of the macro situation is the biggest obstacle, as geopolitical conflicts and macro risks are reshaping its pricing logic.
The Bitcoin market is entering a profound period of silence. On-chain data shows that the seven-day moving average trading volume of Bitcoin has fallen to about 350,000 transactions, marking an 18-month low, in stark contrast to the single-day peak of 700,000 transactions expected in mid-2024. This contraction is not only due to the retreat from speculative frenzies surrounding Bitcoin-native protocols like Runes and Ordinals but also reflects a structural decline in market activity. The sharp drop in trading volume and the disappearance of competition for block space have kept average transaction fees consistently below $1.50, with some users even attempting transactions at ultra-low rates of less than 1 sat/vB. The 'Slipstream' channel launched by the mining pool MARA has further sparked controversies regarding the Bitcoin network's resistance to censorship. Beneath the surface of market quietness, a profound reconstruction of capital patterns is taking place.
It is concerning that new capital inflows are facing exhaustion. CoinAnk data shows that the Bitcoin holdings of short-term holders have decreased by 800,000 coins in less than a month, with the demand momentum indicator plunging to a historical low of -2 million coins. In conjunction, Goldman Sachs has issued a warning: U.S. national debt is climbing to an 'unsustainable' high, with $36 trillion in debt accounting for about 120% of GDP, and interest payments are expected to exceed $1 trillion next year—more than the total of Medicare and defense spending combined. Under the shadow of a debt crisis, Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes resonate subtly with fiscal dilemmas. Although Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract institutional funds (accumulating over $45 billion, averaging $2.6 billion per month), prices remain stagnant at the $105,000 mark. Some institutional reports indicate that the market is under invisible selling pressure, with retail participation noticeably shrinking. Interestingly, whales are quietly accumulating; CoinAnk's on-chain data monitoring shows that the number of wallets holding more than 10 BTC increased by 231 in 10 days, while retail wallets (0.001-10 BTC) decreased by 37,465 during the same period. This divergence is often seen as a precursor to a bull market.
Deeper changes lie in the transformation of Bitcoin's role. As on-chain transaction volumes revert to basic transfer functions, and institutional funds continue to flow into ETF channels while retail exits, Bitcoin is accelerating its shift from a medium of exchange to a store of value. The marginal position of gold in U.S. family offices somewhat limits the penetration of 'digital gold.' The current sideways market is precisely the painful transition of this attribute shift— the market needs to digest the early speculative bubble while awaiting the initiation of a new capital cycle. The accumulation behavior of whales and historical trends suggest that patient capital may achieve excess returns during the liquidity contraction phase.
Bitcoin is filled with contradictory signals: on-chain calmness coexists with large whales accumulating, geopolitical crises intertwine with fiscal cliffs, institutional entry aligns with retail exits. This complex situation highlights its unique value as a non-sovereign asset. While traditional financial markets tremble due to debt expansion, and the Middle East powder keg could ignite oil prices at any moment, Bitcoin's narrative as 'digital gold' is gaining real-world support. Although short-term volatility is unavoidable, the optimization of funding structure and deepening of attribute transformation are laying the foundation for the next round of value discovery. For investors, the current quiet period may be a crucial window to reassess positions and plan for the long term—after all, history shows that when whales begin to roam, the direction of the tide is often already brewing. The market is always oscillating between fear and greed, and the true value anchor is quietly forged in the eye of the storm. This silence of Bitcoin is precisely the touchstone of long-termism.
BTC Data Analysis:
CoinAnk's latest on-chain data monitoring shows that the Bitcoin market is undergoing a significant structural shift in holdings: the amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders (STH) has plummeted by 800,000 coins in less than a month, while the demand momentum indicator has dropped to a historical extreme level of -2 million coins. In stark contrast, the number of wallets holding more than 10 BTC has increased by 231 in 10 days, while retail wallets (0.001-10 BTC) have sharply decreased by over 37,000 during the same period. This phenomenon of holding differentiation often foreshadows a restructuring of market supply patterns in history.
From a market impact perspective, the sharp exit of short-term holders has created short-term selling pressure, but the continued accumulation by large wallets indicates that 'smart money' is accelerating its positioning. On-chain data shows that when short-term holders have not realized net losses and the balance reaches a low point, BTC prices often form a temporary bottom. Notably, the current exchange BTC reserves are decreasing at a historic rate, and this liquidity contraction may trigger a significant supply tightening effect. Coupled with the cyclical changes in the proportion of long-term holders (LTH), the current market characteristics align closely with the accumulation phase at the beginning of the bull markets in 2017 and 2021. If the trend of institutional accumulation continues, it may drive BTC into a new round of value reassessment.