I know that many people are expecting ETH ETF to be like BTC ETF, which will start to pull up after two or three weeks of market crash, but this time may be different because the overall environment has changed. In January, the market was still expecting the Fed to cut interest rates and hype inflation easing, but in August, when inflation had already fallen and the Fed's interest rate cut was almost certain, the market began to hype the economic recession in reverse. At this time, the bullish outlook in the first half of the year turned into bearish outlook.
Netizens joked that in the current cryptocurrency circle, bearish outlook is bearish outlook, and bullish outlook is still bearish outlook, that's the reason.
Back to ETH ETF, data shows that on the ninth working day after the ETF officially started, the net increase in holdings of BlackRock, Bitwise and even Grayscale's Mini ETF became zero. In the past 24 hours, $ETHE continued to maintain net outflows, but only 25,045 ETH were outflowed, and the selling volume was greatly reduced.
Data from two consecutive weeks show that in the first week, Grayscale had a net outflow of 448,392 ETH, and this week it had a net outflow of 250,862 ETH, a decrease of 44.05%. At present, the total reduction of ETHE has exceeded 25%, and the selling of ETHE is likely to gradually stabilize.
However, due to the sharp drop in US stocks, the ETF's ability to take over funds has also decreased, and both selling and buying have decreased. Funds are used to cover positions or take over better US stocks.
US stocks are more important than the cryptocurrency circle, which is almost the consensus of all capital. To put it more broadly, in the eyes of global capital, US stocks are more important than any other assets. Because of this, we can magically see in extreme market conditions that the US stock market plummeted, causing the US dollar index to fall, gold to fall, silver to fall, commodities to fall, and the cryptocurrency circle to fall, with almost no safe-haven assets. We saw this during the 2020 epidemic, and we saw it again in August 2024.
So, when will it stabilize? It's very simple. When the US stock market stabilizes, all kinds of assets around the world will begin to stabilize and then rebound. It is expected to be soon, maybe next week.
