Recently, several major events have had a profound impact on the crypto space. It can be said that they have laid the foundation for Bitcoin's bull market in the coming years.
I. Stablecoin Legislation
On May 20th and May 21st, the U.S. and Hong Kong respectively passed stablecoin legislation, and the scale of stablecoins continues to grow, which will benefit the U.S. Treasury market and Bitcoin.
The U.S. (GENIUS Act) requires stablecoin issuers to hold 100% high-liquidity assets (such as short-term U.S. Treasury bonds) as reserves and to be subject to federal or state-level regulation. Hong Kong (Stablecoin Regulations) introduced a strict licensing system requiring issuers to have a capital of 25 million HKD, and reserves must be isolated from operating funds. These policies enhance the transparency and security of stablecoins, shifting the market from 'wild growth' to compliance.
The profitability of stablecoins mainly relies on the interest spread from reserve assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds). According to predictions by Standard Chartered Bank, stablecoins may hold $17.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds by 2028, accounting for 15% of the Treasury market.
As the 'blood' of the cryptocurrency market, the expansion of stablecoins directly promotes Bitcoin liquidity. Glassnode data shows that the supply of illiquid Bitcoin has reached a historical peak, indicating that the current upward trend is led by institutional funds rather than retail frenzy. Additionally, stablecoin issuers indirectly support U.S. finances by purchasing Treasury bonds, while Bitcoin, as 'digital gold,' becomes a tool for hedging against U.S. dollar credit risk.
II. Tariff War Faces Legal Challenges
Yesterday, a U.S. federal court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump, ruling that he had overstepped his authority.
According to the U.S. Constitution, the exclusive power to regulate foreign trade belongs to Congress, and the president's emergency powers cannot override this for economic security reasons. This ruling reaffirms the importance of U.S. law, stating that trade decisions cannot be made based on the president's whims.
This ruling will lead to a suspension of most of Trump's tariffs, which is beneficial for lowering inflation 📉. There are still many judicial challenges regarding Trump's tariff policy; in addition to this case, there are six other lawsuits in progress, including a complaint filed by 13 state governments and a collective lawsuit by several small and medium-sized business alliances.
Next, the Trump administration can appeal, potentially all the way to the Supreme Court, where several justices are Republican, so the tariffs may ultimately still favor Trump.
III. Interest Rate Cuts Still Need to Wait, But Not Far Off
Yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes strongly suggested that interest rate cuts would not happen soon, making a cut in July a bit difficult. However, if the tariff war can be reduced in scale or even stopped, then interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will eventually come in the second half of this year.
IV. U.S. State Governments Initiate Bitcoin Strategic Reserves
Following the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve in New Hampshire on May 7, Texas also passed the SB 21 bill on May 22, announcing the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. More U.S. state governments and allies will follow suit, providing a continuous influx of funds.
V. Pakistan is Establishing a National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
On May 29, according to Decrypt, Bilal Bin Saqib, special assistant to the Pakistani government and advisor on blockchain and cryptocurrency affairs, announced at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that Pakistan is establishing a national Bitcoin strategic reserve, stating, 'We will hold these Bitcoins and never sell them.'
VI. Vance speaks at the Bitcoin Conference
On May 28th at the Bitcoin Conference, U.S. President Vance predicted that the number of Bitcoin holders in the U.S. would double from 50 million to 100 million 🚀. He also promised to establish a friendly regulatory framework that would benefit BTC.
Based on the above points, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive! After accumulating for a while, BTC is expected to break through. The current strategy is to continue holding, and we will meet at the peak!
