经济衰退

Gold hits a new high vs. Bitcoin rebounds, the battle for safe-haven assets enters a white-hot stage

Yesterday, the price of gold set a new record, soaring nearly $3,430 per ounce. This strong trend is mainly due to investors' dual concerns about the continued escalation of the Sino-US trade war and the weakness of the US dollar.

Peter Schiff, a well-known gold bull, recently spoke out, predicting that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates sharply, the price of gold is expected to break through $3,500. He also issued a severe warning that the United States may face the "worst recession since the Great Depression", and even a 50% stock market crash may not bottom out. These remarks have driven more funds into the gold market, strengthening its traditional safe-haven status.

Just as gold was shining, Bitcoin also quietly rebounded to $94,392 today, hitting a four-week high. However, Schiff scoffed at this. He brought out volatility data for comparison, saying that gold's annual volatility is usually 10%-20%, while Bitcoin often exceeds 50%, "not suitable as a reserve asset at all."

But the counterattack from the cryptocurrency supporters was even more sharp. For example, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, believes that the price of Bitcoin may reach $1 million sooner than his previous prediction of 2031. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, recently spent another $555 million to increase its holdings by 6,556 BTC. Even Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, predicts that Bitcoin may reach $180,000 to $200,000 this year.

In summary, the competition between gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets is a reflection of investors' re-recognition of the traditional financial system. Gold has been firmly in the safe-haven throne with a thousand-year consensus, while Bitcoin has made a strong challenge with fixed supply and institutional endorsement. The struggle between the two is not only a battle of assets, but also a transfer and reshaping of market trust.

At the same time, some investors have begun to adopt a "dual-track parallel" strategy, allocating gold and Bitcoin at the same time to hedge different types of risks. This strategy reflects the market's general concern about the uncertainty of the traditional financial system and the pursuit of diversified asset allocation.

Which investment option do you prefer? Welcome to leave your opinions and investment logic in the comment area!

#黄金 #比特币 #避险资产 #经济衰退

Detailed explanation of July non-farm payrolls, must read!!!
Today's non-farm payrolls report surprised the market. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in July, the lowest record in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-year high, triggering the Sam's Rule recession indicator. Panic spread, and traders began to bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and the rate cut is expected to exceed 110 basis points this year.

In terms of specific data, non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000 in July, far below the expected 175,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% last month to 4.3%. Wage growth slowed, with hourly wages rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, both lower than expected.

After the data was released, U.S. stock futures fell sharply in the short term, with Nasdaq futures falling by more than 2%, S&P 500 futures falling by 1.6%, and Dow futures falling by 1.2%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 19 basis points to 3.79% at one point, and the U.S. dollar index also fell.

Despite the strong performance of the labor market in the past two years, it now seems that the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further. Clark Bellin, chief investment officer of Bellwether Wealth, said that the Fed must cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further.

The rise in unemployment has triggered the Sam rule, an indicator that has predicted recessions with 100% accuracy since 1970. But some analysts believe that this does not necessarily mean that the economy has entered a recession, but is just an early warning sign that the economy will weaken further.

In terms of employment structure, employment in healthcare, construction, transportation and warehousing continued to increase in July, but the information industry lost 20,000 jobs. Government employment growth slowed down, and other major industries did not change much.

#就业数据 #经济衰退 #市场分析 #美联储何时降息？ #降息预测

I know that many people are expecting ETH ETF to be like BTC ETF, which will start to pull up after two or three weeks of market crash, but this time may be different because the overall environment has changed. In January, the market was still expecting the Fed to cut interest rates and hype inflation easing, but in August, when inflation had already fallen and the Fed's interest rate cut was almost certain, the market began to hype the economic recession in reverse. At this time, the bullish outlook in the first half of the year turned into bearish outlook.
Netizens joked that in the current cryptocurrency circle, bearish outlook is bearish outlook, and bullish outlook is still bearish outlook, that's the reason.

Back to ETH ETF, data shows that on the ninth working day after the ETF officially started, the net increase in holdings of BlackRock, Bitwise and even Grayscale's Mini ETF became zero. In the past 24 hours, $ETHE continued to maintain net outflows, but only 25,045 ETH were outflowed, and the selling volume was greatly reduced.
Data from two consecutive weeks show that in the first week, Grayscale had a net outflow of 448,392 ETH, and this week it had a net outflow of 250,862 ETH, a decrease of 44.05%. At present, the total reduction of ETHE has exceeded 25%, and the selling of ETHE is likely to gradually stabilize.
However, due to the sharp drop in US stocks, the ETF's ability to take over funds has also decreased, and both selling and buying have decreased. Funds are used to cover positions or take over better US stocks.
US stocks are more important than the cryptocurrency circle, which is almost the consensus of all capital. To put it more broadly, in the eyes of global capital, US stocks are more important than any other assets. Because of this, we can magically see in extreme market conditions that the US stock market plummeted, causing the US dollar index to fall, gold to fall, silver to fall, commodities to fall, and the cryptocurrency circle to fall, with almost no safe-haven assets. We saw this during the 2020 epidemic, and we saw it again in August 2024.

So, when will it stabilize? It's very simple. When the US stock market stabilizes, all kinds of assets around the world will begin to stabilize and then rebound. It is expected to be soon, maybe next week.

#BTC #经济衰退 #美联储何时降息？

📊 Sahm Rule: A "crystal ball" or a smokescreen for recession?

Hello everyone! Today we are going to talk about the hot topic recently - the Sahm Rule.

The Sahm Rule was proposed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm in 2019 and is said to be an indicator that can be used to predict recessions. But the question is, is the Sahm Rule really reliable?

🔍 Let's first talk about the historical confirmations that have been obtained in the past. The Sahm Rule can indeed confirm the existence of a recession in the past recession cycle, but the problem is that it has never successfully predicted any recession in advance. Therefore, some people believe that this is actually like hindsight!

At the same time, there is also a view that the Sahm Rule was only proposed in 2019. Although the previous recessions can now be inferred based on this rule, the Sahm Rule did not successfully predict any signs of recession in advance. Therefore, we don't have to worry too much!
🤔 My personal opinion is that although many people are discussing the Sahm Rule now, don't forget that even the founder of the rule, Claudia Sahm, said that despite the weaker-than-expected economic data in recent days, the Fed does not need to cut interest rates urgently. Does this mean that the current data does not match her economic indicator, or are we over-interpreting it a bit?

📉 However, the market has been volatile in recent days, and everyone is looking for a signal that fits with it. But don't forget that true wisdom lies in comprehensive analysis, not relying on a single indicator. The Sahm Rule may be a valuable reference tool, but it has not yet proved itself to be a reliable prophet.

💬 So, here comes the question:
- What do you think of the Sahm Rule? Is it a magic weapon for predicting economic recessions, or is it just a coincidence?
- Will you rely on such economic indicators when making investment decisions?

Share your thoughts in the comments section, and let's discuss how to look at market signals more intelligently!
#萨姆规则 #经济衰退 #投资智慧 #SahmRule

SEC Acting Chair Proposes Adjustments to New Rules for ATS Registration of Cryptocurrency Exchanges

SEC Acting Chair Mark Uyeda plans to modify a controversial proposal that requires digital asset exchanges to register under Alternative Trading System (ATS) rules. This proposal was introduced in 2022, aiming to broaden the definition of 'exchange' to fill regulatory gaps, but faced strong opposition from the industry, particularly from cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase, which believe it would severely limit their operational space.

Uyeda stated at the Washington International Bankers Association meeting that it is incorrect for the SEC to apply the regulatory approach used for the government bond market to the cryptocurrency market; the proposal should instead focus on ensuring that proprietary trading firms comply with regulatory standards parallel to those of banks and other financial institutions when trading U.S. government bonds.

He also pointed out that while alternative trading systems play a key role in securities and government bond trading, they also lack stringent transparency and investor protection standards, which could raise concerns about integrity and investor assurance in the context of complex financial instruments.

Currently, market participants are curious about when the new proposal or final rule votes will be released. However, regulatory reforms typically take months to materialize, or it may be after the Senate confirms Trump-nominated crypto-friendly Paul Atkins to lead the SEC that the market will see significant positive news!

In this context, amidst the challenges faced by prices and the overall market, Bitcoin's price yesterday briefly dipped below $76,600, dragging the overall market lower, with other crypto assets like Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano also suffering significant declines.

Furthermore, the turmoil in the cryptocurrency market is not only due to its own regulatory challenges but is also closely tied to macroeconomic uncertainties. The market is generally concerned that Trump's tariff measures could lead to an economic recession, and the business community has warned that these policies may have negative impacts on the industry and consumers.

In summary, the SEC's proposal adjustments, the volatility in the cryptocurrency market, and Trump's tariff policies all come together to create a perplexing situation for the overall market.

Do you agree with the SEC's implementation of stricter regulations on cryptocurrency exchanges? What impact will Trump's tariff policies have on the cryptocurrency market? Leave comments in the discussion section!

Cryptocurrency evening summary:

1. Trump said in a speech: He will block the US border, stop illegal immigration and implement the largest criminal deportation in US history, and is confident that inflation will be defeated quickly

2. In August, the#USgovernment collected $307 billion in taxes, but spent $687 billion, resulting in a $380 billion deficit, which means that the government's spending is twice its revenue

3. As the yield curve is not inverted, market concerns about #经济衰退 have intensified, but there is still no obvious recession catalyst. In addition, investors sold $1.73 billion worth of stocks last week. At the same time, the market rose 4% this week. It is obviously too early to turn bearish now

4. Talking about Chinese real estate, China's new home prices fell the fastest in 9 years in August. The news comes from Reuters

5. Bitcoin $BTC #BTC☀ The weekly level chart shows a bullish green candle, which indicates that buyers are now stepping up their purchases, which may be the beginning of driving prices up

BlackRock Executive: Bitcoin's Price Does Not Reflect Strong Institutional Demand

Robbie Mitchnick, Global Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, recently stated that institutional investment in Bitcoin has strengthened, yet Bitcoin's price struggles to reflect this growing demand. He believes that short-term market behavior and macroeconomic uncertainty are the main reasons for this phenomenon.

On March 18, Mitchnick pointed out in an interview with Yahoo Finance that Bitcoin's scarcity, decentralization, and independence from traditional monetary systems make it a robust hedge against economic downturns, and a U.S. economic recession could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's rise.

He also noted that despite soaring gold prices amid economic uncertainty, Bitcoin has not shown a similar trend, as Bitcoin is often viewed as a risk asset rather than a store of value.

Additionally, the significant outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks is primarily due to hedge funds closing their cash-and-carry arbitrage trades, rather than long-term investors exiting the market. Meanwhile, core long-term holders remain steadfast.

At the same time, institutional capital continues to flow into the market, with many professional investors viewing this round of declines as an accumulation opportunity. Despite regulatory uncertainties and security issues in the crypto industry, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term value.

He even predicts that investors will increasingly view Bitcoin as a tool to hedge against traditional financial risks, which could become a new momentum for Bitcoin's next round of increases amid economic uncertainty in the coming months.

Overall, BlackRock executives believe that Bitcoin's price has not yet reflected strong institutional demand, and an economic recession could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's rise.

Therefore, despite the market being filled with uncertainty due to this adverse factor, institutional investors’ confidence in Bitcoin remains strong.

Do you think that Bitcoin's price will truly catch up with institutional demand in the coming weeks? Will an economic recession really become a catalyst for Bitcoin? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

#比特币 #贝莱德 #机构需求 #经济衰退

A little-known fact: Since the Sam rule was proposed, there has not been a real verified recession (if you insist that the COVID-19 recession counts, just ignore what I said) #萨姆规则 #经济衰退

1. The Fed #鲍威尔 announced a 50 basis point rate cut, which was an evasive measure made in advance due to concerns about a market recession. However, looking back at the rate cut in 1981, it led to a sharp rise in the third quarter of that year, which truly destroyed the economy. Therefore, we need to observe the market reaction of long-term bonds to Powell's return.

2. Continuing with the first point, the steepening of the yield curve after inversion is a signal of #经济衰退 . Recently released economic data have raised concerns about a recession, such as the#ISMmanufacturing PMI of 47.2, indicating that the economy continues to shrink, and the unemployment rate of 4.2% indicates that the labor market has begun to weaken.

But the market seems to have reduced its concerns about a recession. Combined with the current situation, it may bring greater room for growth before the economy finally enters a recession.

3. The market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut are as follows
November 7, 2024: 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75%
December 18, 2024: 50 basis points to 4.00-4.25%
January 25, 2025: 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%
March 19, 2025: 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75%
May 7, 2025: 25 basis points to 3.25-3.50%

4. As of now, the Qing Dynasty #Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index peaked in February 2021 and has since fallen 45%. At the same time, the #S&P 500 rose 43.7%. Of course, this is temporary data and does not represent future market trends (Figure 1)

5. A debt crisis is unfolding. The US budget deficit reached $380 billion in August, an increase of 66% from August 2023, or $12 billion per day. This is the largest deficit so far (Figure 2)

6. Let's talk about Ethereum #EFT . As of the end of August this year, all $ETH ETF holds a total of 2862403ETH, worth about $7.2 billion, indicating that institutions have a strong interest in $#以太坊ETF通过 ETF (Figure 3)

7. Some analysts say that Bitcoin $BTC may rise to 74K in the next few weeks. What do you think about this? Although institutions no longer have positive factors for shorting Bitcoin, I think a huge driving factor is still needed, such as truly reducing concerns about economic recession and introducing huge liquidity

8. Let's talk about liquidity. From 2019 to now, the global money supply has increased by more than $20 trillion. With the interest rate cuts in the United States, Hong Kong, and China, liquidity is still growing. Of course, the price of Bitcoin has always been positively correlated with M2, which will be discussed later (Figure 4)

#经济衰退 The funding rate is still positive after such a drop? It's amazing!! Why? Are there so many people going long against the trend? $BTC

Non-agricultural data analysis report! ! ! The top priority! ! !
Today's non-agricultural employment report surprised the market. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in July, the lowest record in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-year high, triggering the Sam's Rule recession indicator. Panic spread, and traders bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and the rate cut is expected to exceed 110 basis points this year.

The employment data was lower than expected, causing the stock market to fall. Investors may turn to cryptocurrencies for risk aversion, and prices may rise in the short term.

As market uncertainty increases and risks in the traditional financial system rise, more investors may turn to DeFi platforms to seek high returns and diversify risks.

As "digital gold", Bitcoin may attract more investors and prices may rise when economic uncertainty increases. The demand for stablecoins will also increase, and investors will turn to stablecoins to avoid risks. Altcoin market volatility may increase, and funds will shift from high-risk Altcoins to Bitcoin and stablecoins.

The Fed cut interest rates, the US dollar liquidity increased, and some funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market, driving prices up. In a low-interest environment, investors may be more willing to invest in high-return crypto assets.

Summary: Non-farm payroll data and changes in economic policy expectations have a multi-faceted impact on the cryptocurrency market, including price fluctuations, market sentiment, liquidity, and trading volume. Investors need to pay close attention to dynamics and adjust strategies flexibly.

#就业数据 #经济衰退 #市场分析 #美联储 #降息预测