浅墨分析师

美联储主席换届进入收尾阶段，哈塞特成头号热门人选，上任就降息的表态直接引爆市场关注！作为白宫国家经济委员会主任，他和特朗普的关系向来紧密，也是特朗普心中最靠谱的"自己人"——毕竟特朗普早就想让美联储里有个能跟自己同频、把降息理念落地的关键角色。

哈塞特的"鸽派立场"简直毫不掩饰：采访里直接放话，要是现在执掌美联储，立马就会启动降息，因为现有数据已经给出了明确信号！

在我看来，要是哈塞特真能顺利上任，美联储的鹰派主导时代基本就翻篇了。他大概率会成为实打实的强硬鸽派，后续货币政策转向宽松的概率直接拉满！

说穿了，这就是特朗普的明牌操作——安插亲信，让美联储配合自己的经济目标，毕竟谁不想有个"听指挥"的联储主席呢？

最后提个醒：特朗普的人事决策向来不按常理出牌，一切都还有变数，但现在这个信号已经够明确了——市场的降息预期，是时候重点关注起来了！#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $BTC

Breaking! The U.S. employment data unexpectedly cools down, with deep divisions within the Federal Reserve in December! Retail investors in the crypto market should quickly look at coping strategies!\n \nThe freshly released U.S. employment data is indeed surprising! The number of initial unemployment claims last week not only did not increase but actually decreased, reaching a new low in over six months, indicating that the U.S. job market is quite stable. However, the contradiction lies in the increasing pessimism among the public about job hunting, and the internal disputes within the Federal Reserve have intensified—should they cut interest rates in December or not? The two factions are completely opposed, and no one can convince the other!\n \nThis situation has a significant impact on the crypto market, so let’s explain it in simple terms: When economic data is good, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will cool down, and the U.S. dollar is likely to strengthen, which means that the funds that might have flowed into the crypto market will slow down. In the short term, mainstream crypto assets are likely to enter a period of volatility. Everyone should not panic and sell off at the sight of a slight decline, nor should they blindly chase after a rebound; maintaining a steady rhythm is key!\n \nAs ordinary investors, here are a few practical coping suggestions: \n \n1. Absolutely avoid going all-in; ensure you leave enough reserve funds and wait for the market to provide a clear direction before taking action, without following the crowd blindly;\n​\n2. Focus closely on the results of the Federal Reserve's meeting in December: If it confirms a delay in interest rate cuts, continue to observe and maintain your positions; if interest rate cuts are confirmed, then consider gradually positioning without rushing;\n​\n3. Don’t let short-term fluctuations derail your rhythm; hold onto assets that you believe in for the long term and that have actual value support, and don’t let a bit of volatility throw you off balance; frequent trading can easily lead to missing opportunities or getting trapped.\n \nRemember this: Market trends often brew in divergence and explode in consensus. The more chaotic the market, the more you need to stabilize your mindset—don’t be greedy or anxious, and you can seize the next wave of market opportunities! Follow me, and let’s settle down in the crypto market together, navigating through the bull and bear cycles!#加密市场观察 #加密市场反弹 $BTC \n

今夜全球资本大震荡！99%的散户还死盯着比特币涨跌？浅墨扒开数据背后的“吸血逻辑”！

币友们，今晚别再死磕K线图了！全球资本正在悄无声息打响“流动性争夺战”，加密市场就是最灵敏的风向标！

瑞士ZEW数据只是前菜？那是欧洲资本的“焦虑晴雨表”！一旦数据拉胯，瑞士法郎的避险资金会瞬间抽走全球流动性——还记得10月比特币突然跌5%吗？就是欧洲机构集体撤资补仓闹的！

真正的大招在凌晨3点美联储褐皮书！这可不是普通数据，是美国12个辖区经济的“精准扫描”。只要报告里提“消费乏力”，美联储明年降息的预期立马飙升——去年3月褐皮书一出，比特币单日涨12%，就是机构提前押注流动性转向的结果！

散户今晚必做三件事：

1. 23:30 E原油库存数据出来前设好手机提醒，要是原油和比特币开始同涨同跌，说明大机构在同步调整大宗商品和加密资产的配置；
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2. 紧盯美元指数，褐皮书公布后如果美元跌破105，直接挂单布局以太坊——这是量化资金涌入风险资产的明确信号；
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3. 别再怕“加息那回事”了！现在全球央行都在悄悄释放流动性，英国财政大臣今晚的预算案，说不定藏着新一轮财政刺激的惊喜；

浅墨直言：永远别在数据公布时盲目追涨杀跌！多数人还在盯着K线的小波动，懂行的人早看清了市场底层的资金流向。想知道我怎么从褐皮书里找下次行情的机会？关注浅墨，进圈聊，拆解“美联储数据里的赚钱逻辑”！#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $BTC

德州率先出手！官方都开始布局比特币，散户别再犹豫？

兄弟们，重磅消息！美国德克萨斯州政府已经投入500万美元，买入了贝莱德旗下的比特币ETF，相当于官方亲自下场布局加密资产！

这波操作的核心的是，德州在试探将比特币纳入“战略储备资产”的可能性。虽然相关计划还没完全落地，但真金白银已经投出去了，显然是想抢在全美各州前面，抢占加密领域的先机！

浅墨怎么看？

1. 信号意义远大于金额：500万美元对政府而言不算巨额资金，但官方公开配置比特币ETF，这是历史性的一步——意味着传统资本和监管层正在主动接纳加密货币，后续很可能有更多州甚至国家跟风跟进。
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2. 合规化进程明显加速：德州今年特意通过立法，拨款1000万美元用于加密资产储备，这说明他们不是在赌短期涨跌，而是着眼于长期布局。而且选中贝莱德这类头部机构的产品，也印证了合规ETF已经成为主流参与渠道。
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3. 别只盯着短期价格：很多人觉得“这点钱带不动行情”，但关键在于态度的转变——连政府都开始认可比特币的储值属性，你还在纠结它的长期价值吗？

散户该怎么做？

- 拒绝盲目追高：消息面可能会引发短期波动，但长期逻辑没有改变。建议拿住现货，用定投的方式布局，别被市场情绪牵着走。
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- 聚焦合规标的：像贝莱德IBIT这类合规ETF，对普通人来说参与门槛更低，尤其是怕麻烦的新手，比直接购买实物币更省心、更安全。
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- 借鉴德州思路：政府都在做“长期储备”，足以说明比特币不是炒一把就走的短线资产。可以把仓位分成“短线操作”和“长线囤币”两部分，牢牢拿住核心筹码。
#加密市场反弹 #加密市场观察 $BTC

The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are high, Bitcoin is surging to $89,000! Ordinary investors don't miss this wave of market!

Brothers, just released a heavy news! The Fed has sent a clear signal, with the probability of a rate cut in December skyrocketing to 82.7%, this is crucial! A rate cut means more money in the market and lower borrowing costs, high-risk assets will definitely benefit directly. Look, Bitcoin has directly broken through $89,000 in the short term, and the Nasdaq has also surged by 2.69%, the overall market sentiment is at an all-time high!

Why is this news having such a big impact on the crypto market? Simply put, after a rate cut, borrowing costs decrease, and people are more willing to invest their money in high-yield areas. Bitcoin, as the core asset of the crypto market, is naturally the first to be boosted. Additionally, with the Nasdaq strengthening, the tech sector and the crypto market have always been closely linked, this market wave is definitely not a coincidence. Personally, I judge that the Fed's actions are likely just the beginning, as inflation data continues to improve, there may be more rate cuts next year, and Bitcoin's upward potential is still significant!

A reminder for ordinary investors: this wave is indeed positive, but don't get carried away and go all in. It's recommended to focus on Bitcoin and mainstream crypto assets, with small position allocations, and avoid chasing highs and being too greedy. Remember, the market always has fluctuations, and diversifying your portfolio and managing risk properly is fundamental. Operate rationally and only profit from what you can manage! #加密市场观察 #加密市场反弹

The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, global capital shifts dramatically! These two types of countries directly benefit!

Don’t think the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is just a matter for the United States; once this wave of interest rate adjustments is in place, the flow of global capital will change instantly!

💰 First wave: Hot money rushes to emerging markets
With the dollar interest rate cut, Wall Street's funds can no longer hold back: "Earning this little profit in the U.S. is not as good as making a play in emerging markets!"
In the blink of an eye, a massive amount of capital floods into the Asian and Latin American markets —
The Vietnamese stock market rises sharply, Indian-related funds are being snapped up, and the Brazilian real is also strengthening;
Domestic assets have become the hot cake for international capital, and these markets are directly entering a period of dividends!
To put it simply: Previously, keeping dollars could only yield 1% interest, but now Vietnam can offer 5%, Thailand 4%, and anyone can see where to invest.

⚖️ Second wave: Pressure from dollar debt greatly reduced, emerging countries breathe a sigh of relief
Many emerging countries have previously carried dollar debt, constantly worried about the appreciation of the dollar and high interest dragging down their finances. Now the situation is completely different:
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates + a weaker dollar, a double benefit lands directly!
For instance, Indonesia borrowed 1 billion dollars in foreign debt last year, originally needing to repay 50 million in interest each year, but now it is highly likely to only need 30 million;
After the local currency appreciates, the pressure to repay debt plummets, and the saved money can be directly invested in infrastructure and livelihood areas.

🌍 Core logic: Global capital follows the Federal Reserve
Once the Federal Reserve's policy moves, global funds adjust their layout accordingly:
Weaker dollar → Resource-exporting countries earn more → Attractiveness of emerging market assets skyrockets → Corporate financing costs decrease → Economic growth momentum is maximized!

Ultimately, in this wave of interest rate cuts, emerging countries that dare to layout can reap significant benefits, while those who stubbornly hold dollar cash can only sip on cold soup (of course, if the rate cuts are too aggressive and trigger inflation, that's another story).

Follow me, and I’ll show you how international situations affect your wallet!
#加密市场回调 $BTC #比特币波动性 #美联储重启降息步伐

【Late Night Sudden! Market Rises Across the Board】Federal Reserve Core Officials Shift Position, December Rate Cut Expectations Heat Up?
💥Key Signal: Waller's Statement Disturbs the Market
· Federal Reserve Hawkish Representative Waller's Attitude Changes:
“I support starting rate cuts in December!”
· Core Consideration: Labor Market Pressure Becomes Primary Concern
· Market Feedback: Probability of Rate Cut in December Climbs to 76.7%
📈Evening Market Performance Brief
🔥 Tech Stocks Strengthen Collectively:
· Nasdaq Rises Nearly 2%
· Google and Tesla Rise Over 5%
· Broadcom Soars 7%, Leading the Market
🌏 Chinese Concept Stocks Rise Simultaneously:
· Bilibili's Increase Reaches 7%
· Baidu, Alibaba, and NIO All Show Upward Trends
🎯Latest Views from Institutions
Morgan Stanley's Chief Strategist States:
→ The Adjustment Phase of U.S. Stocks is Approaching Its End
→ S&P 500 Target Set at 7800 Points (Still 18% Upside Potential)
Two Core Logic Points:

1. The Federal Reserve's Easing Expectations Will Release Market Liquidity
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2. Continuous Innovation in AI Technology Drives Corporate Profit Growth
⚡Digital Asset Market Linkage Analysis
In the Context of Traditional Market Valuation Rate Cut Expectations:
✅ Easing Liquidity Expectations Drive Risk Asset Value Reassessment
✅ The Upward Sentiment of Tech Stocks is Transmitting to the Digital Asset Field
✅ The Federal Reserve's Policy Shift is Expected to Open Up Space for Related Asset Appreciation
💎Core Judgment
Current Market Signals Indicate the Same Direction:
Rate cut expectations Have Become the Core Main Line of the Market
The Upward Trend of Tech Stocks Has Not Ended
The Market May Welcome Greater Volatility Upwards
#加密市场回调 $BTC

Risk signals hidden! The divergence within the Federal Reserve is intensifying, economic data shows unusual discrepancies, is a market turning point approaching?

On the surface, the market still maintains a fluctuating upward trend, but peeling away the surface of macro data reveals that the potential trend leans more towards caution. Risk aversion is gradually accumulating, and market concerns have spread from traditional financial sectors to the digital asset market.

The divergence of opinions within the Federal Reserve is becoming more evident, with hawkish and dovish policy propositions continuously clashing. The previously heated discussions about policy adjustments in December have quietly cooled, and the current policy direction is stuck in a stalemate. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has exceeded one month, with direct economic losses surpassing $11 billion, and this is just the visible impact.

What is most alarming is that rare reverse divergence has appeared in key U.S. economic indicators: while the job market remains resilient, the consumption side shows signs of cooling; inflation levels remain high, yet the momentum for economic growth is gradually weakening. This complex situation makes it difficult for policymakers to find a clear direction for regulation.

The core question arises —
Is the U.S. economy stepping into a new development stage, or has the countdown to recession risk begun?
If the directional judgment is incorrect, whether it’s traditional risk assets like U.S. stocks or the digital asset market, they could be the first to be impacted.
The next 1-2 months will be a critical observation period to determine the direction of global liquidity.

⸻
If you want to understand how these macro variables specifically affect asset prices, capital flows, and market trends, feel free to click on the avatar to follow. I will continue to provide deeper, actionable analysis content to help you see through the macro fog and understand the essence of the market.
#加密市场观察 $BTC

Breaking! Members of the Trump family speak out + Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts rise, can ETH hit the 10,000 mark?

Dear friends in the crypto circle, here are two market signals worth paying close attention to! Trump's son recently publicly mentioned the target range for Ethereum, stating that it is expected to reach the 8,500-10,000 USD range—could this statement be merely a sharing of market opinions, or does it hide potential trend signals behind it? Let's not rush to conclusions, and continue to break down the key logic.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's policy dynamics continue to affect market nerves, and the probability of starting rate cuts in December has now risen to nearly 70%! The implementation of rate cuts often means that market liquidity will further loosen, and from historical patterns, this type of incremental capital tends to flow more into asset areas with high elasticity, and crypto assets are naturally one of the directions for capital attention.

Looking at Ethereum itself, after completing its core upgrade, the network performance has significantly optimized, and various application scenarios within the ecosystem are continuously expanding. The iteration on the technical level has steadily enhanced its competitiveness, and coupled with the potential benefits of liquidity easing, the multiple factors in the current market environment are forming a resonance, providing important support for its subsequent trend.

Now, the question everyone is most concerned about: can Ethereum break through the previous oscillation range and start a new upward trend with these two major market benefits? Or is this just a short-term emotional-driven pulsing fluctuation that will return to an oscillating pattern after the heat fades?

It is often said by veteran players that bull markets often brew quietly during periods of low market sentiment, gradually unfolding when most still have doubts. For this wave of Ethereum's market performance, which judgment do you lean towards?

Is this wave of market movement an opportunity worth seizing, or a short-term speculation that needs to be cautious? If you want to get more detailed trend analysis and logical breakdown, follow me, and I will help you see the core context through the market's surface! #加密市场观察 #美国加征关税 $ETH

Is the Christmas rate cut coming? 71% probability igniting the market! Mainstream digital assets may usher in a new round of market movement, will the AI sector explode?

🔥It has started strong! The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has soared to 71%📈. This policy shift before Christmas is set to reshape the digital asset market landscape? After recently experiencing a short-term plunge in mainstream assets and billions in liquidations, the market is now fully active, and capital has quietly positioned itself. Are you still waiting for a pullback opportunity?

Current interest rates remain in the range of 3.75%-4.00%. After two rounds of rate cuts this year, the labor market is gradually cooling, inflation trends are easing, and combined with the end of the quantitative tightening cycle, the core logic for a rate cut is completely sound! Despite significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, Powell has emphasized that "it is not set in stone," but the overall direction of liquidity easing is clear, and risk assets are about to welcome a rare window period🎯.

For the digital asset market, a rate cut is the strongest catalyst! A large amount of capital will flow out of low-interest investment channels, naturally making mainstream assets the core recipient of incremental funds. The signals for institutions to position themselves at lower levels have already emerged, and the actions of whales shifting billions into core assets have provided answers💥. Furthermore, it is worth noting that AI-related sectors are expected to explode, with projects like Render and Bittensor backed by the dual trends of blockchain + AI. The pace of technology implementation will accelerate in a low-interest environment, and the growth potential cannot be underestimated! The decrease in borrowing costs in the DeFi space will further activate market trading vitality, as volatility often hides more opportunities.

The stock and bond markets have shown a synchronized resonance trend, and the probability of a weaker dollar is high. Expectations for a rebound in U.S. stocks are warming up, but the resilience of the digital asset market far exceeds that of traditional markets. Don't miss out on this wave of dividends. However, caution is also necessary! If a rate cut is interpreted as a signal of economic recession, short-term fluctuations may occur, but the long-term background of liquidity easing will not change, and a pullback may actually present a good opportunity for positioning🚀.

Now is the time to focus on non-farm payroll data and inflation reports. Once positive signals materialize, the market may not give time for hesitation! Do you think that after the rate cut around Christmas, will mainstream assets first break through the 120,000 mark, or will another core asset break 5,000 first? #比特币波动性 #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC

【Three Key Nodes in December, Can They Ignite the Year-End Trend in the Crypto Market?】📌

📅Core Node Outlook
December 1st The Fed's tapering process ends
December 4th Important upgrade to the Ethereum network
December 10th Fed's interest rate adjustment decision
Three major time windows may determine the year-end market trajectory!

⚠️Market Risks to Watch Out For
Japan's long-term government bond yields continue to rise:
20-year yield approaches 2.8%
40-year yield rises to 3.7%
The thirty-year era of low interest rates officially comes to an end

💸Impact of Tightening Liquidity
→ Traditional carry trade logic reverses
→ Global funds start to flow back to the Japanese market
→ All kinds of risk assets face liquidity contraction pressure

🌊Possible Chain Reactions
• Risk exposure of highly leveraged positions expands
• Valuation of risk assets may be suppressed
• Market volatility may intensify in the short term

📝Strategies for Response
→ Closely track the dynamic changes of the three key nodes
→ Reasonably control positions to cope with potential volatility
→ Maintain sufficient liquidity and wait for clear signals
→ Ethereum network upgrade may create structural opportunities

In the current market environment, liquidity comes first! Be patient and wait for the trend to clarify; once the direction is confirmed, seize the opportunity to position accordingly.

Interactive Topic:
Which key node in December are you most focused on?
🟰End of Fed Tapering
Ethereum Network Upgrade
🕒Fed's Interest Rate Adjustment Decision
#美股2026预测 #比特币波动性 $
$BTC

The Federal Reserve's divisions are brought to the forefront! Collins states: The probability of policy easing in December is doubtful.

Federal Reserve official Collins' latest remarks have attracted market attention, as she clearly stated that "no conclusion has been reached regarding the decision for the December FOMC meeting," and holds a "cautious attitude" towards policy adjustments. Although she mentioned that the current policy stance is "slightly tight," she emphasized that ending the balance sheet reduction in a timely manner is a reasonable choice—this statement indeed confirms that the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the policy path have gradually become public!

Key Points Summary

- Employment data is mixed: The 9th month saw new job additions exceed market expectations, but the overall data shows divergence, making it difficult to form a clear basis for policy adjustments;
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- The balance sheet reduction process is officially coming to an end: The balance sheet reduction (QT) is concluding as scheduled, marking a critical turning point in the liquidity tightening cycle;
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- Internal divisions are becoming public: Collins candidly stated that "differences in opinions during policy-making are normal," which resonates with the earlier minutes that noted "some officials support policy easing" and "multiple officials advocate for maintaining the status quo";
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- Global environment increases policy difficulty: The divergence in the global economic landscape heightens inflation uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve needs to seek breakthroughs between "stabilizing growth" and "controlling inflation."

Three Major Impacts on the Market

1. Expectations for policy easing cool off: Collins' cautious statement coupled with internal dissent has further reduced the likelihood of policy easing in December;
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2. Policy uncertainty rises: The Federal Reserve's policy-making has shifted from "consensus-driven" to "divergence game," which may increase the volatility risk of future decisions;
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3. Mild improvement in liquidity environment: The end of QT provides some support to the market, but the high interest rate environment will still constrain risk assets.

Does Collins' direct confrontation with internal divisions pave the way for maintaining existing policies in December? How will the market interpret the Federal Reserve's policy direction amidst controversy? Feel free to share your views in the comments! #美股2026预测 $BTC

Trump publicly pressures: change if no interest rate cut! The Federal Reserve's December meeting hides political gamesmanship

The market is in an uproar! Trump made a strong statement at the US-Saudi investment forum, directly pressuring Treasury Secretary Mnuchin in front of all the guests: "If you can't push for a rate cut, resign immediately!" As soon as he finished speaking, he turned his attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, bluntly stating, "I want him to resign now," and revealed that Commerce Secretary Ross supports this, while Mnuchin advised, "He only has three months left in office." This public confrontation of positions has thoroughly unveiled the internal economic policy disagreements within the White House!

What is even more concerning is that the October non-farm payroll data, which should have been disclosed on time, has been postponed until after the December meeting. This means the Federal Reserve lacks a core reference indicator to assess the employment market at this critical decision-making juncture! Meanwhile, the tariff policy promoted by Trump continues to exert upward pressure on prices—Goldman's latest report shows that tariffs have led to a 0.44% increase in core personal consumption expenditures, and year-end inflation levels are expected to reach 3%. This creates a clear cyclical effect: tariffs raise inflation expectations → the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious attitude on interest rates → Trump further intensifies the pressure.

Trump's strategy doesn't stop here. In addition to his stance towards Powell, he plans to expand influence in the Federal Reserve Board by appointing Governor Cook. Currently, out of the seven-member Federal Reserve Board, three are already considered to lean towards a loose policy stance; adding another trusted member would directly change the voting landscape. It's also worth noting that the terms of all regional Federal Reserve presidents are set to expire by the end of February 2026—this means Trump is likely to make a comprehensive adjustment to the power structure of the Federal Reserve!

At present, the market's focus is entirely on the December meeting. At that time, the Federal Reserve will face three key challenges:

- Lack of support from October non-farm payroll data
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- Uncertainty in inflation trends
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- Ongoing internal policy stance disagreements

Trump has already signaled that he might announce the new Federal Reserve chair candidate in the coming weeks. The timing of this overlap raises speculation: political influences are becoming a potential factor in shaping the direction of Federal Reserve policy!
$BTC
#美股2026预测

Brothers, that wave of crash last night was definitely not some "pinning", but rather a harsh blow from the global financial market to cryptocurrencies!\n \nWhy did it drop so harshly? In a nutshell: large funds are frantically fleeing, and small retail investors have no chance to escape.\n \nLet me clarify the logic for you:\n \n① Japan has really encountered a major issue\nThe yield on 30-year government bonds surged to over 3.4%. What does this mean?\nIt means that global institutions that have been relying on "borrowing cheap yen" for arbitrage are now forced to collectively reduce leverage!\nDon't think the ones selling off are retail investors; the ones truly fleeing are those multinational institutions.\n \n② The Federal Reserve suddenly changed its stance, dousing the market with cold water\nSeveral Federal Reserve officials spoke one after another, each more hawkish than the last—"Don't expect rate cuts anymore."\nOnce this statement was made, global market liquidity tightened instantly, tech stocks plummeted from leading gains to diving, and cryptocurrencies were treated as cash cows.\n \n③ Market leverage is too high, simply unable to withstand shocks\nWhat is the current state of the cryptocurrency market?\nEvery time you sell 1 dollar, it triggers a forced liquidation of 10 dollars on-chain.\nLast night was a typical case of "chain liquidation":\nOne person being forcibly liquidated triggered the entire market to follow suit.\n \n📉 The sequence of events unfolded like this:\nJapanese bond market turbulence → The Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals → Quantitative trading algorithms go short → US stocks plunge → Cryptocurrency liquidations happen like an avalanche.\n \nTo be honest, those still asking "Is the bull turning back?" really have not realized the severity of this drop.\n \nThe cruel truth is:\nBitcoin is no longer a safe haven; it is the "barometer" of global liquidity.\nOnce the wind changes, it is the first to be drained.\n \nA reminder to everyone:\nNow is not the time for risk-taking, but rather a matter of who can survive and endure until the next cycle.\nIf the era of "cheap global funds" really comes to an end:\n· Emerging markets will suffer first\n· Tech stocks will follow under pressure\n· Cryptocurrencies… you know, they are even more fragile than them.\n \nWant to bottom-fish? You can, but don’t gamble with your own principal.\nThis wave is a true "financial storm" that cannot be predicted just by looking at K-lines.\nMaintain your position, don’t rush to be a hero. The next opportunity always belongs to those who survive. #美国加征关税 $BTC

Family, this operation has really left everyone dumbfounded! Just when the whole internet was in a panic selling frenzy, "Queen of Disruption" Cathie Wood struck again! Yesterday, the market plummeted, and she directly scooped up $42 million, this incredible move is simply astonishing!

She truly embodies the woman who has ingrained "When others are fearful, I am greedy" into her DNA! The more panic in the market and the more the stock prices drop, the more she dares to buy in large quantities — this is the classic play of value investing and contrarian positioning. Of course, Cathie knows that short-term risks are not small, but she believes even more in the technology she is betting on, as long-term value is far beyond what short-term fluctuations can compare to. She has never focused on the price movements of tomorrow or next month, but rather on the major industry breakthroughs over the next three to five years or even longer.

Has she really caught a whiff of a bull market? Or is there a bigger game behind this?

Let's see what she specifically bought:

- $17.7 million poured into stablecoin giant Circle (which dropped 9% that day)
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- $16.9 million heavily invested in crypto exchange Bullish (which fell 3.6% that day)
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- $7.6 million bottom-fished in mining company BitMine (which directly plunged 10%)

This is not bottom-fishing; it's simply dancing on the panic sell! But upon closer inspection, these three companies are anything but simple — Bullish surprisingly made a profit of $18.5 million in the third quarter, and Circle's profits skyrocketed by 202%! This performance is simply dazzling in a bear market.

Cathie Wood's layout this time is brilliant: stablecoins + exchanges + mining companies, directly covering the entire upstream and downstream of the crypto industry chain! This is not bottom-fishing; it is clearly reserving a seat for the bull market in the next three years. Remember what she previously said about "Bitcoin reaching $1.5 million by 2030"? She is not just talking; every time the market crashes, she is voting with real money.

What’s most exciting now is that BitMine is about to release its earnings report. If the performance really blows past expectations, then Cathie Wood's bottom-fishing move will be legendary again. Do you think she can lead the market to take off this time? #美股2026预测 #美联储重启降息步伐

Non-farm payroll night market differentiation! After the release of the U.S. September non-farm data, the U.S. stock market surged more than 2%, with technology stocks collectively strengthening; gold fell below the 4100 mark, and the digital asset market also retraced 5%, with the two types of assets showing a "fire and ice" pattern.

Goldman Sachs pointed out the core logic directly: the market seems lively, but the employment market lacks resilience, and there is still a possibility of an open window for policy easing in December. However, CME interest rate futures data shows that the current probability of a rate cut in December is only 29.8%, and the cumulative easing probability for January next year is close to 50%, with market expectations fluctuating as violently as an "elevator ride."

Federal Reserve officials have released a strong signal: Barr clearly stated that "the 3% inflation level still does not meet safe conditions," and Harmack directly warned that excessive rate cuts could trigger financial risks, which is equivalent to pouring cold water on market enthusiasm.

However, the U.S. stock market was not affected by this, continuing its strong momentum after the opening: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.43%, the Nasdaq soared by 2.53%, and the S&P 500 index rose by 1.9%, with the technology sector leading the gains. Nvidia performed particularly well, with Q3 revenue reaching $57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%, while also providing a guidance of $65 billion in revenue for Q4, with strong fundamentals supporting a nearly 4% rise in stock price.

This non-farm data itself is quite eye-catching—new jobs added 119,000, far exceeding market expectations by more than double. The White House immediately emphasized that "this achievement is due to the contribution of the domestic workforce in the U.S.," making its position clear.

However, the manufacturing sector is still facing cold winds: the scale of new orders and the industry prosperity index continue to hit bottom, and the lack of recovery momentum in the real economy remains prominent.

Gold's performance is even more dramatic, plunging over 1.5% after the non-farm data was released, and although there was a slight rebound later, the key 4100 mark could not be reclaimed, showing an overall "deep V fluctuation" trend.

From the essence of the market, the current volatility is more driven by emotions, and the real fundamental support is not as strong as the market performance suggests. Although the expectation of rate cuts has not completely dissipated, the Federal Reserve's cooling statement is also clear enough, and the subsequent market trend still needs to closely monitor changes in data.

For ordinary participants, it is recommended to avoid being swayed by short-term fluctuations—regular investment strategies can be executed as usual, patiently waiting for clear opportunities, and not blindly chasing highs to enter the market. #非农就业数据 $BTC

Tonight, the big non-farm payroll data is about to make a significant appearance! This is not an ordinary employment report—it's the first employment data since the U.S. government resumed operations, and market attention is at an all-time high.

During the previous government shutdown, many economic data releases were forced to be postponed, and now this "delayed" data is like a beam of light illuminating the true state of the U.S. job market. More critically, it will directly impact the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve and is likely to bring significant fluctuations to the financial markets.

The overnight release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes shows that at last month's meeting, there was a clear division among decision-makers about whether to adjust policies in December: the number of those who believe no adjustments are necessary this year did not reach a majority, but those supporting an adjustment were in the minority, and some centrists clearly stated they would "base decisions on data." Regarding the balance sheet reduction-related quantitative tightening actions, the committee members almost unanimously agreed that it should be halted; at the same time, some officials expressed concerns about the potential for chaotic fluctuations in the stock market. However, regardless of the final decision in December, most Federal Reserve officials agree that there is a need to further adjust the policy direction in the future.

Since the Federal Reserve decision-makers are still in a wait-and-see state, the U.S. September non-farm payroll data released today is particularly critical. For this delayed report, I personally lean towards a cautious view—the core reason is the poor performance of leading indicators such as the previously disclosed ADP employment data and initial unemployment claims. For example, in the case of ADP data, the employment number for the month not only did not increase but instead decreased by 2,500; coupled with the approaching year-end, many U.S. companies have begun layoffs, and job positions are continuously shrinking, compounded by the uncertainties brought about by geopolitical situations, the market is generally shrouded in cautious expectations.

Yesterday morning, the market experienced a rapid decline and broke through key positions. If today's rebound is merely a technical correction before the data release, then after the data is published in the evening, it is likely to continue the previous downward trend. Currently, U.S. stocks have shown signals of topping and pulling back. If this is followed by increased trading volume, it may trigger a larger scale of adjustment. In my personal view, I still adhere to the right-side trading logic and lean towards cautious positioning; during this phase, one must not rashly enter the market to bottom-fish. #特朗普取消农产品关税 $ETH