Non-farm payroll night market differentiation! After the release of the U.S. September non-farm data, the U.S. stock market surged more than 2%, with technology stocks collectively strengthening; gold fell below the 4100 mark, and the digital asset market also retraced 5%, with the two types of assets showing a "fire and ice" pattern.

Goldman Sachs pointed out the core logic directly: the market seems lively, but the employment market lacks resilience, and there is still a possibility of an open window for policy easing in December. However, CME interest rate futures data shows that the current probability of a rate cut in December is only 29.8%, and the cumulative easing probability for January next year is close to 50%, with market expectations fluctuating as violently as an "elevator ride."

Federal Reserve officials have released a strong signal: Barr clearly stated that "the 3% inflation level still does not meet safe conditions," and Harmack directly warned that excessive rate cuts could trigger financial risks, which is equivalent to pouring cold water on market enthusiasm.

However, the U.S. stock market was not affected by this, continuing its strong momentum after the opening: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.43%, the Nasdaq soared by 2.53%, and the S&P 500 index rose by 1.9%, with the technology sector leading the gains. Nvidia performed particularly well, with Q3 revenue reaching $57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62%, while also providing a guidance of $65 billion in revenue for Q4, with strong fundamentals supporting a nearly 4% rise in stock price.

This non-farm data itself is quite eye-catching—new jobs added 119,000, far exceeding market expectations by more than double. The White House immediately emphasized that "this achievement is due to the contribution of the domestic workforce in the U.S.," making its position clear.

However, the manufacturing sector is still facing cold winds: the scale of new orders and the industry prosperity index continue to hit bottom, and the lack of recovery momentum in the real economy remains prominent.

Gold's performance is even more dramatic, plunging over 1.5% after the non-farm data was released, and although there was a slight rebound later, the key 4100 mark could not be reclaimed, showing an overall "deep V fluctuation" trend.

From the essence of the market, the current volatility is more driven by emotions, and the real fundamental support is not as strong as the market performance suggests. Although the expectation of rate cuts has not completely dissipated, the Federal Reserve's cooling statement is also clear enough, and the subsequent market trend still needs to closely monitor changes in data.

For ordinary participants, it is recommended to avoid being swayed by short-term fluctuations—regular investment strategies can be executed as usual, patiently waiting for clear opportunities, and not blindly chasing highs to enter the market. #非农就业数据 $BTC