Risk signals hidden! The divergence within the Federal Reserve is intensifying, economic data shows unusual discrepancies, is a market turning point approaching?
On the surface, the market still maintains a fluctuating upward trend, but peeling away the surface of macro data reveals that the potential trend leans more towards caution. Risk aversion is gradually accumulating, and market concerns have spread from traditional financial sectors to the digital asset market.
The divergence of opinions within the Federal Reserve is becoming more evident, with hawkish and dovish policy propositions continuously clashing. The previously heated discussions about policy adjustments in December have quietly cooled, and the current policy direction is stuck in a stalemate. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has exceeded one month, with direct economic losses surpassing $11 billion, and this is just the visible impact.
What is most alarming is that rare reverse divergence has appeared in key U.S. economic indicators: while the job market remains resilient, the consumption side shows signs of cooling; inflation levels remain high, yet the momentum for economic growth is gradually weakening. This complex situation makes it difficult for policymakers to find a clear direction for regulation.
The core question arises —
Is the U.S. economy stepping into a new development stage, or has the countdown to recession risk begun?
If the directional judgment is incorrect, whether it’s traditional risk assets like U.S. stocks or the digital asset market, they could be the first to be impacted.
The next 1-2 months will be a critical observation period to determine the direction of global liquidity.
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