弈贤日记Yixianbtc

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SOL's current market situation can be summarized as:
"A stubborn rebound after a prolonged decline, but the rebound isn't strong enough."

1-hour level trends show three key characteristics:


Chip funds haven't left, but they also haven't dared to rush in.

In the past two days, the price has repeatedly dipped into the 128–130 range, which is clearly the "fundamental support line." Each time it dips, it gets pulled back up.
➡️ This indicates that the bottom buyers are a group of patient but not aggressive funds.

This market situation: it’s not a clear bottoming V-shape, but rather a process of repeatedly consolidating to wear out the weak hands.

BOLL lower band is narrowing → price is sticking to the middle band → means that "the direction is about to be forced out"

BOLL upper and lower bands are beginning to converge, which is the most common formation before a trending market.

Take note:
The price has just re-established above the middle band, but is still far from the upper band.
This means:

The market is brewing, but there isn't enough strength to break through.

The market is waiting for an "emotional trigger point."

MACD energy bars show a typical "early structure of a weak reversal"

On your chart, the MACD red bar has just emerged, and DIF is close to DEA and rising, clearly showing a weak recovery after an oversold condition.

This type of structure indicates:

It’s not a strong rebound, but a necessary bounce after being unable to fall further.

Therefore—
An increase is not a trend, just a breather.



Bullish Signal Zone

136.0–136.8
A stable price in this range indicates a continuation of the rebound.

Buying Zone:
132.5–134.0 (best)

Stop Loss:
Below 129.2



Bullish Targets

138.8 (Resistance 1)
142.4 (Resistance 2)
145.0 (Rebound limit, unless BTC strengthens, otherwise it’s hard to break through)

Bearish Defense Zone

145.0–146.5 range
This range is a clear selling pressure zone for SOL.

Short Positions:
144.8–145.5

Targets:
138.0 → 134.5 → 130.2

Stop Loss:
Above 147

Summary

Currently, SOL: rebounds can be taken, but the trend is not worth chasing.
Long positions should be short and quick, while short positions wait for a high-level reversal.
If BTC doesn't crash, SOL has a short rebound;
If BTC changes face, SOL will immediately retrace to 131–128.

ETH Current Market

ETH's current trend is a "weak rebound after a decline" —
not a trend reversal, not a trend acceleration, just a breather after a decline.

This wave from 3658 → 2873 is a typical structural downward movement, with two main characteristics:
Rebounds do not create new highs (weakness characteristic)
The downward wave rhythm is complete (trend has inertia)

Now it has retraced back to the 2960 – 3000 range, clearly showing upper supply pressure:
• 1-hour Bollinger middle band 3020
• Previous low dense trading area 3050
These two positions are the biggest "ceiling" for ETH right now.

Summary of the market:
ETH does not have a trend reversal structure, the rise is just a weak rebound, and the downward trend inertia is still present.


News Conclusion

This week's core factors affecting ETH are 3:

FOMC Minutes + US Treasury Yield Recovery (bearish)

The minutes are hawkish, US Treasuries are rebounding, and risk assets are under short-term pressure.
→ ETH's rebound ceiling has been lowered.

ETH ETF launch expectations have cooled (obviously bearish)

Recently, institutional flows have significantly decreased, and ETF expectation heat has dropped.
→ It is very difficult for ETH to show independent strength.

Monday's Asian market is consistently weak (short-term bearish)

The Asian session is the period in the crypto market that is most likely to "catch up on declines."
→ ETH is likely to remain weak at the beginning of the week.

Overall, the news is bearish, and the technical aspect shows a weak rebound, so the direction is naturally downward.

Short (main direction)

3015–3030 short

(Rebounding to here is basically a standard "short covering point")

• Stop loss: 3070
• First target: 2920
• Second target: 2870
• Ultimate extension: 2820

This is the most stable range



Aggressive short

2980–2995 short
(This segment is the pressure zone converted from previous lows)
• Stop loss: 3025
• Target: 2920 / 2870



Long only for ultra-short term

2870–2890 long
(Structure lower edge + 1h lower band)
• Stop loss: 2830
• Target: 2980

Long positions are just rebound trades, not trend longs, don’t be greedy.

BTC In-Depth Analysis——"A Rebound Is Not a Turnaround, It's Just Catching Breath"

This rebound from 88564 to 90484 USD is, to put it simply, a technical recovery by the bears after a long period of decline. But pay attention to the three key features below:

K-line Structure: Weak Rebound, Like a Car That Hit the Brakes
• Repeatedly pressed below the 1H middle track (about 90813)
• The rebound strength is noticeably weaker than in previous days
• Low trading volume, bears "hit and run"
• Entered the consolidation area after the decline (89500–91000)

This is not a turn to bullish, but a "pause" in the bearish rhythm.

MACD: Green Bars Shorten = Rebound Exists, But Direction Remains Unchanged

The green bars of MACD have obviously shortened, but the DIF is still far below the zero line.
This means:
• Bearish momentum has indeed weakened
• But bulls do not yet have the strength to reverse the trend
• Belongs to weak rebound + bearish trend unbroken

This is a typical low-volume rebound, not a trend reversal.

News Aspect: Overall Risk is Bearish

Current macro news is still unfavorable for BTC:
• Federal Reserve officials hawkish again: December rate cut expectations rise
• US dollar index strengthens → BTC under pressure
• Israel situation continues to be unstable → funds seek safety in USD
• Grayscale ETF reduction scale continues to expand

Funds lack the motivation to push BTC upward, and the short-term structure remains weak.

Bearish Dominance (Priority Thought)

• Strongest entry area for bears: 91300–91600

• This is the middle track resistance + previous low rebound pressure

• If the rebound does not increase volume here, short it directly

• Bear confirmation breakdown point: 89600

• Breaking below here equals starting a second bottom exploration


Bear Targets:

• First target: 88500 (already reached)

• Second target: 87000

• Maximum target: 85300

Bullish Attempts


If you want to go long, you can only wait:
• Strong support for bulls: 88500–89200 range
• This is the previous low + lower track area
• But a 1H volume increase + obvious lower shadow must occur to enter

Bull Targets:
• First resistance: 90600
• Strong resistance: 91300 (the hardest for bulls to break through)



Final Direction

BTC's short-term structure remains weak and bearish; do not chase if the rebound is insufficient; if the rebound is sufficient, do not hesitate to short directly.

The current trend is only gathering strength for a decline; the trend has not reversed.

BTC Deep Analysis - The Cold Wind of the Critical Zone, the Trend is Holding Its Breath

The current trend of BTC feels like a leader has dipped below the water surface but hasn’t fully let go.
The downward inertia is still present, but the strength of the bears is starting to wear down, while the bulls haven’t yet had the courage to charge.

What you are seeing now is a typical structure of "low-level repeated sideways + weak rebound + not out of the risk zone."



Technical Structure (Key)

Bollinger Bands: Price is stuck below the middle line

This indicates that the bullish force is still not strong enough to take over the trend.
The upper band is clearly bending down, still a weak rebound within a downward trend.

MACD: Green bars are diminishing, but have not turned red

This represents that the bearish momentum is decreasing, but the trend has not reversed; it is just fatigue from the decline.

In other words:
➡ It is not a reversal
➡ It is just a breather after a decline


Bullish Attack Points (breakthrough counts as bullish):

Bullish Strengthening Point:

91750
→ 1H candle must close above for bulls to be considered active
→ After that, target looks at 93000

True Reversal Point:

93800
→ Must close above for a "trend reversal" prototype
→ Target looks at 95500

⚠ Not called bullish before a breakthrough.
What you see as an increase is just a "weak rebound."

Bearish Entry

Bearish Confirmation Point:

90000 break
→ Bears take the helm again
→ Target looks at 88500

Acceleration Kill Point (breakout will be fast):

89000
→ Once confirmed, it will accelerate downward
→ Target 87000

Today the benefits given have a current price of about eight or nine hundred, keeping up means steady happiness.

This weak pressure of 92300 cannot be broken
Proving that the big pie is still very soft
At this position, going long or short can also yield some returns
Flexibility and adaptability are the key to survival

Continue to hold multiple positions
Seeing pressure around 93000
If it breaks through and stabilizes at 94000 today, it may lead to a certain reversal

The current price of the pancake tonight is high!
Just go in more and it's done.

Little fans have suggested going for over 40,000 u
We have been working together for a few months
Every month we have to take this much for big purchases.
From losing over 100,000 u to now
Step by step, we have come this far
Slowly achieving the freedom to rely on ourselves

BTC Market Character — "Weak Rebound, No Change to Main Bearish Trend"

Rebounds are all weak counterattacks

Each rebound is held down by the 20-day moving average (cyan), a typical bearish suppression structure.
Especially the recent wave from 89012 → 91524 shows insufficient strength, with volume not concentrated, belonging to the category of "after a long decline, a natural rebound."

→ Such rebounds mostly will see a retest afterwards.

Although MACD has a golden cross, the bars have not continued

The growth of the green bars after the MACD golden cross is limited, indicating:

Bulls are starting to attempt
But funds are not really daring to chase aggressively

This is a typical state of "bearish deceleration, but bulls do not dare to engage."

The lower Bollinger band has been rubbed for too long

BTC has been moving horizontally along the lower Bollinger band, indicating:
• Bearish trend persists
• Support below is consumed quickly
• Once triggered by news, it is likely to drop further


The current core structure of BTC

The conclusion is clear: BTC is still in a bearish structure, but there will be a short-term rebound.

This price segment belongs to the "repair phase within a bearish trend," not a trend reversal.

In one sentence:

Bears dominate, rebounds are just to provide the main players with better short positions.



Long (short-term rebound position)

Bottom support at:
89000 – 89700 range
(This position has repeatedly halted declines and is crucial for short-term bulls)

Entry suggestion:
A pullback to 89800–90400 can be a light long attempt (quick in and out)

Short-term pressure above:
92300 (weak pressure)
93500 (strong pressure)

→ If the rebound reaches here with reduced volume, it will likely be smashed.

Short (main idea)

The short position that the main players are really focused on:

93200–93900 range
Here is the middle Bollinger band + concentrated moving average resistance + previous bull failure points
→ This is where it is easiest to do "induce long then turn short"

Short target:
90500 → 89500 → 88500

Once it breaks below 88500
The market will accelerate, likely looking at:

87000

bnb has also arrived as scheduled

The short position given yesterday also has 160 points
Why is it clearly written in the strategy to do it at this position
Everyone should look more, if you don't understand, you should ask

Just keep up with my rhythm!

The strategies I post every day are clear to everyone; those who can keep up either double their accounts or make big profits!

The market never waits for anyone, but the points I provide are always stable, accurate, and fierce!

Is it uncomfortable to bag over 20,000 in one night?

Has the position where I said you could go long bounced back nearly a thousand points?
This precise point is explained very clearly, grasped thoroughly, and if you still can’t do this, then there's nothing that can be done.

SOL —— This is the "Counterattack of the Trapped Main Force", not a trend reversal.

The trend of SOL seems to be moving sideways,
but in essence:

"The main force is forced to stop the decline, but still lacks the qualification to counterattack."

The current rebound may seem a bit strong,
but you should pay attention to two key facts:


The real pain point of SOL: The main force is trapped in the deep trapped area above 155–171.

The wave after 10 at 171 directly led to continuous selling, look at that segment of the decline:
• No rebound
• No buffer
• Sliding all the way down
• Even at 128, there was no significant capital buying.

This indicates one thing:

The upper chip volume is very heavy, the main force is now "defending the market rather than pulling the market up."

What you see in these pullbacks, regardless of:

138 → 143
143 → 147
147 → 140

are all the main force's hedging rebounds, not a trend takeoff.



The true structure of the market: "Weak rebound + Strong resistance + Strong support below but no rise"

The structure of SOL is very clear:

Low points cannot be raised: 128.70 → 130 → 133 → 136 (now)

Insufficient bullish strength,
a typical weak rebound, a toothpaste squeezing trend.

High points keep declining: 171 → 160 → 150 → 146 → 142 (now)

This tells you:

The main force has not given up on the bearish rhythm, just slowing down.

Although MACD has turned red, it belongs to "weak red."

Look at that segment of the MACD at the bottom:
• Short red bars
• Large platform
• No widening of DIF–DEA

This is not a trend reversal, it's a local repair.

Bearish sniper zone

142.5 – 145

This is an area the main force deliberately presses down; every time it touches, it gets knocked down.

Target: 138 / 135
Stop-loss: 147.5


147 – 150 (super strong short zone, this segment is favored for false breakouts)

If the main force wants to "make a move",
it will pull up to here to let the bulls think they have gained strength, then smash it back down.

Target: 140 / 135
Stop-loss: 153

This is currently the most powerful and stable short zone for SOL.

Bulls

134 – 136

As long as it does not break 134, this is all SOL's "buffer zone."

Target: 140 / 143
Stop-loss: 132.5

Mainly used for rebounds, not suitable for chasing trends.

128 – 130 (bottom line zone)

This is SOL's bottom line, belonging to "cannot fall but also cannot rise."
When it reaches here, it is the area to pick up chips, but do not linger in battle.

Target: 138 / 142
Stop-loss: 125

BNB —— Main Force "Pretending to Sleep" Market

The current trend of BNB is like a typical situation where the main force does not want to strengthen but is also unwilling to crash the market.
This is not a trend; this is "dragging," dragging until you lose patience and direction, and only then will the main force give you real action.

You see it rising, going up a little bit, slowly wriggling, right?
But I tell you:

This is not an increase; it is "pretended vitality" — true strength would not be so sluggish.



The essence of the structure: unable to go up, afraid to go down, the downtrend remains unbroken

If you break down this segment of the trend, you will find three very core things:

The height of the rebound is always lower than the previous wave

1019 → 970 → 950 → 936
Each wave's high point is decreasing.

In other words:

The main force is not letting it stand up at all.



All rebounds are stuck on the same line: 944–950 pressure is impenetrable

As soon as this pressure line is touched:
• The K line immediately weakens
• MACD red bars immediately shrink
• The center of gravity starts to shift down

This is the range where the main force is ambushing.



Each time the lower boundary breaks, it is pulled back, but this is not a rescue; it is "maintaining volatility"

In the 884–900 area, the main force is indeed protecting, but only:

Not a death guarantee, not intended for a rise.

Bullish (only suitable for pullbacks, not suitable for trends)

Short-term bullish: 923–927

This is the "minimum threshold for a rebound"; here you will get an 8–12U pullback.

Target: 935 / 942
Stop loss: 918



True strong bullish: 888–900

The main force has defended this three times; here is the iron bottom.

Target: 915 / 930
Stop loss: 880



Bearish

The most critical short point: 944–950

The main force's favorite position to crash the market; each time it reaches here —
"Rebound complete, time to go home."

Target: 930 / 920
Stop loss: 958

False breakout short point: 958–965

If the price rushes here, it is a market for raising prices to sell.

Target: 940 / 930
Stop loss: 975

BTC Current Status:

This is a weak rebound deliberately supported by the main force and not a trend reversal.
The upward pressure is clear, and the downward support remains weak, belonging to a "flash in the pan" oscillation.

In other words:
Now the rise is to give the bears a better position;
not for a real reversal.

From the K-line structure perspective:

BTC has been weak for 10 consecutive days → belongs to a trending decline.

You can see:
• High point 107468 → counterattack failed
• The second high point is lower
• The middle track continues to suppress
• All rebounds cannot stand firm on the middle track

This is a standard bearish trend structure.

This wave of rise is a weak rebound.

All characteristics of the rebound:
• Rebound volume is weak
• Rebound angle is gentle
• Stops at the edge of the middle track
• Immediately shrinks after the rebound

This kind of rebound without volume and without breakthrough → the main force is luring longs and washing out short-term bears.


MACD gave a key signal:

MACD red column rapidly expanded, but——

DIF did not strongly cross above
The red column expands, but the strength is dispersed
No golden cross appeared on the trend reversal axis

→ This indicates that it is currently a "low-level repair", not a "trend turning bullish".


Bullish Points

First support (short-term buyable): 91500–92000
→ Pulling back here usually leads to a rebound.

Strong support (main force bottoming point): 89000–89800
→ Both tests were pulled back, this is the real support.

Bull position stop loss: 88600


Bearish

First strong pressure: 94500–95200
→ Target level for the rebound, once here the main force will hit hard, very suitable for shorting.

Second strong pressure: 96500–97200 (perfect short point)
→ Reaching here can almost short without thinking.

Bear position stop loss: 98000

Direction Judgment

Break below 91500 → Fall back to the 90000–89200 range
Break above 95200 but with low volume → false breakout, continue to short as the main strategy
Break above 97200 (with large volume) → true reversal, looking up to 100500

Summary

All of BTC's current "rises" are not meant to initiate but to trick you into the upper resistance area.
The real direction has not been given, but it is definitely not now.

ETH in one sentence:
It's not a reversal, just a weak rebound; it's not a safe zone, but a ‘short-term tentative pullback’ after the main force controls the market.

This wave of rise is essentially:
The main force uses low liquidity to keep the price above the middle track, creating a false sense of stability
But it has not released real reversal volume
Top divergence + middle track pressure + news not completely turning warmer → ETH still leans towards a weak oscillation range

What you see now is not the market starting, but the market being ‘supported’.


Technical structure: three key signals indicate that ETH is still not strong

Bollinger band structure (most critical)

Bollinger middle track: 3066
ETH just happens to be stuck above the middle track after the rebound, but hasn't stabilized, and the bearish candle pushes it back again.

→ This is a typical ‘false breakout test’.

The upper pressure zone is very obvious

The last three impacts: 3140, 3180, 3200
All have been brought down.

This indicates that this is the ‘range that the main force intentionally does not allow it to break through’.

Although MACD red bars are expanding,:

DIF angle is shallow
Red bar growth rate is not strong
No real golden cross acceleration structure has appeared

→ Standard weak rebound, not a trend reversal.

Real actions of the main force

Now the main force is doing two things:

‘Supporting the bottom’ to prevent a drop below 2940 (main force cost zone)

This is the reason why the last two spikes were pulled back.

‘Capping’ to prevent a rise above 3200 (short position cost zone)

The main force is waiting for BTC's direction and will not express its stance in advance.


Bullish

First support (can do short longs): 3020–3040
→ This is the pullback area below the middle track, and there will be a short-term rebound.

Strong support (main force support zone): 2950–2980
→ As long as it doesn’t break, this wave of the market won’t collapse.

Long position stop-loss: 2929

This is not a trend long, it is a short-term rebound long.

Bearish

First strong pressure: 3140–3160
→ Every time it reaches here, it gets brought down, this is the best short position.

Key strong pressure: 3190–3220
→ Major resistance in the cycle, it’s all short advantage before the breakout.

Short position stop-loss: 3230

Yesterday, regardless of whether it was the current price order or fans' real accounts,
it ended perfectly with victory.
I hope today can also bring good luck to everyone.
Friends who can't grasp it can find me through the chat room
and together we can move towards happiness.