ETH in one sentence:

It's not a reversal, just a weak rebound; it's not a safe zone, but a ‘short-term tentative pullback’ after the main force controls the market.

This wave of rise is essentially:

The main force uses low liquidity to keep the price above the middle track, creating a false sense of stability

But it has not released real reversal volume

Top divergence + middle track pressure + news not completely turning warmer → ETH still leans towards a weak oscillation range

What you see now is not the market starting, but the market being ‘supported’.

Technical structure: three key signals indicate that ETH is still not strong

Bollinger band structure (most critical)

Bollinger middle track: 3066

ETH just happens to be stuck above the middle track after the rebound, but hasn't stabilized, and the bearish candle pushes it back again.

→ This is a typical ‘false breakout test’.

The upper pressure zone is very obvious

The last three impacts: 3140, 3180, 3200

All have been brought down.

This indicates that this is the ‘range that the main force intentionally does not allow it to break through’.

Although MACD red bars are expanding,:

DIF angle is shallow

Red bar growth rate is not strong

No real golden cross acceleration structure has appeared

→ Standard weak rebound, not a trend reversal.

Real actions of the main force

Now the main force is doing two things:

‘Supporting the bottom’ to prevent a drop below 2940 (main force cost zone)

This is the reason why the last two spikes were pulled back.

‘Capping’ to prevent a rise above 3200 (short position cost zone)

The main force is waiting for BTC's direction and will not express its stance in advance.

Bullish

First support (can do short longs): 3020–3040

→ This is the pullback area below the middle track, and there will be a short-term rebound.

Strong support (main force support zone): 2950–2980

→ As long as it doesn’t break, this wave of the market won’t collapse.

Long position stop-loss: 2929

This is not a trend long, it is a short-term rebound long.

Bearish

First strong pressure: 3140–3160

→ Every time it reaches here, it gets brought down, this is the best short position.

Key strong pressure: 3190–3220

→ Major resistance in the cycle, it’s all short advantage before the breakout.

Short position stop-loss: 3230