BTC In-Depth Analysis——"A Rebound Is Not a Turnaround, It's Just Catching Breath"

This rebound from 88564 to 90484 USD is, to put it simply, a technical recovery by the bears after a long period of decline. But pay attention to the three key features below:

K-line Structure: Weak Rebound, Like a Car That Hit the Brakes

• Repeatedly pressed below the 1H middle track (about 90813)

• The rebound strength is noticeably weaker than in previous days

• Low trading volume, bears "hit and run"

• Entered the consolidation area after the decline (89500–91000)

This is not a turn to bullish, but a "pause" in the bearish rhythm.

MACD: Green Bars Shorten = Rebound Exists, But Direction Remains Unchanged

The green bars of MACD have obviously shortened, but the DIF is still far below the zero line.

This means:

• Bearish momentum has indeed weakened

• But bulls do not yet have the strength to reverse the trend

• Belongs to weak rebound + bearish trend unbroken

This is a typical low-volume rebound, not a trend reversal.

News Aspect: Overall Risk is Bearish

Current macro news is still unfavorable for BTC:

• Federal Reserve officials hawkish again: December rate cut expectations rise

• US dollar index strengthens → BTC under pressure

• Israel situation continues to be unstable → funds seek safety in USD

• Grayscale ETF reduction scale continues to expand

Funds lack the motivation to push BTC upward, and the short-term structure remains weak.

Bearish Dominance (Priority Thought)

• Strongest entry area for bears: 91300–91600

• This is the middle track resistance + previous low rebound pressure

• If the rebound does not increase volume here, short it directly

• Bear confirmation breakdown point: 89600

• Breaking below here equals starting a second bottom exploration

Bear Targets:

• First target: 88500 (already reached)

• Second target: 87000

• Maximum target: 85300

Bullish Attempts

If you want to go long, you can only wait:

• Strong support for bulls: 88500–89200 range

• This is the previous low + lower track area

• But a 1H volume increase + obvious lower shadow must occur to enter

Bull Targets:

• First resistance: 90600

• Strong resistance: 91300 (the hardest for bulls to break through)

Final Direction

BTC's short-term structure remains weak and bearish; do not chase if the rebound is insufficient; if the rebound is sufficient, do not hesitate to short directly.

The current trend is only gathering strength for a decline; the trend has not reversed.