币姥爷

1、《牛市杀器：资金费率套利介绍》

2、《12月10日与6日暴跌复盘：不容忽视的资金费率及潜在机会》

3、《市场出现一致性看空》

4、《408暴跌之后，币圈是否已严重错杀？》

5、《币姥爷的加密货币交易思维方式》

6、《WLFI套利复盘》

December 3, 2025
I saw the news that the market price of Moutai has dropped below the distributor's channel price of 1499. The once unattainable 53-degree Feitian, under the pressure of consumption downgrading and e-commerce, has fallen from grace. Just last year, Moutai's market value became the top in the A-shares, at that time everyone compared Dongfang Moutai to Western Nvidia, but now Nvidia still occupies the top position on NASDAQ, and the development of AI continues to flourish. Perhaps choosing Moutai doesn't necessarily mean losing, but with the continuous development of AI, those betting on AI-related value companies are bound to reap substantial rewards.

December 2, 2025
The market has temporarily stabilized after a short-term decline. Currently, this round of decline is still attributed to negative news. Given this, I believe we don't need to be pessimistic about the future market trends, as the previous decline was caused by a tangible outflow of ETF funds, which is fundamentally different. Of course, the current rebound price has not yet returned to the level before the decline, so the short-term market is still mainly characterized by fluctuations.
One thing worth paying attention to recently is the surge in silver prices. To be honest, many people anticipated the increase in gold prices over the past year, and now there's speculation in silver as well. This shows that as long as there are assets with an audience, price increases are just a matter of time, because capital will eventually flow into these targets to stir things up.

December 1, 2025
The market has fallen again, giving a warning to the December market. In fact, the overall judgment for the upcoming market is somewhat pessimistic; it is unlikely that there will be another surge before the end of January. It has been reiterated that there are risks associated with cryptocurrency-related financial services, especially as many crypto promotions have recently entered common social platforms, leading many people to fall victim to scams.
From this perspective, tightening regulations is necessary. To be honest, most people lack awareness of financial scams, which in turn brings more negative comments about cryptocurrencies. However, cryptocurrency itself is just a tool, and it has been unfairly blamed. Of course, this will deter some people from entering the market, and with Christmas and the Spring Festival approaching, the likelihood of retail investors entering the market, whether here or abroad, is low.

November 30, 2025
Today, let's have an open discussion. If you earned enough assets through the cryptocurrency market, how would you continue to invest? The specific amount varies from person to person; in third- and fourth-tier cities, perhaps just A8 (10 million RMB) is enough, while in first- and second-tier cities, A8.3 or A8.5 (around 30-50 million) might be needed, or a smaller target. I think the mainstream answer to this question might surprise many people. From Tether's recent actions, we can see that they are crazily hoarding gold and investing in gold mines; Bitcoin, gold, and U.S. Treasury bonds have become their most important asset reserves.

November 29, 2025
Happy weekend! Compared to the previous few weekends, the market in the past two days is much better, although it hasn't continued to surge. However, for a rebound market, being able to consolidate is a good sign, which helps to continue the rebound trend. Currently, Bitcoin still needs to test the support at 90,000, while Ethereum is facing a challenge at 3,000 points. In fact, I believe the upcoming volatile market is likely to break below that level. The key is whether the previous low of 80,000 can be maintained. Even if it tests the bottom a second or even third time, it is acceptable.
Today I saw some unfavorable news, which is that the high-level officials continue to speak out about strengthening the crackdown on financial activities related to cryptocurrencies. Recently, there have been some meetings that were temporarily halted, so to be honest, from a funding perspective, it is almost impossible to expect retail investors from our side to rescue the market. In fact, the performance of this round of altcoins is poor, not only because the project parties are too unreliable, but also because there are too few new investors entering the market. Only new investors would rush in without thinking, so I judge that even if the market rises after 1-2 months of consolidation, there won't be the altcoin season that everyone expects.

November 28, 2025
This week, the overall market performance is relatively stable. Even if there hasn't been a continuous rise these days, Bitcoin can stay at 90,000, and Ethereum barely stands at 3,000, which can be considered acceptable. What is currently worth looking forward to is the landing of interest rate cuts, as it will be a real benefit for the current monetary environment, unlike what everyone understands as good news turning into bad news.
Although I judge that the market in the next one to two months will not be very good, the low point last week may become an important support, which means that even if there is a subsequent decline, it will not go much lower than the support. I am using a grid strategy to cope with the upcoming market; on the one hand, because even if the market is going to rise, it must experience a long period of sideways movement to regain energy, and on the other hand, because the overall market has already dropped quite a bit, the space for it to continue downward is relatively limited. The grid strategy is likely to capture the oscillation profits during this period. Similar to the grid, there are LPs or options sellers; they are essentially quite similar.

November 27, 2025
The market is gradually stabilizing, and this wave of rebound is not the kind of reckless surge. If it continues to steadily climb step by step, the probability of a recent decline will become very small. Therefore, currently stabilizing at 90,000 is a very good signal. A few days ago, I took a 10% position to buy the dip, mainly considering that the sentiment was seriously oversold, coupled with the rebound and stabilization of the U.S. stock market in the past two days. Last week's prices look increasingly like recent lows.
Another relatively good signal is that altcoins have also started to show a different trend. Previously, when the market was crazy, new coins mostly opened high and then fell. In the past two months, it has turned into low opens and low closes, but recently it seems to be showing a low open and high close trend, with MON being the most typical example. I want to clarify that I am not encouraging everyone to play with altcoins, but rather through their performance, some situations of the overall market can be observed.

November 26, 2025
Looking at the market situation, there is currently no direct indication of a second bottoming out, and the recovery of the U.S. stock market has given more confidence to the market's upcoming trends. It was mentioned yesterday that this wave of market recovery is directly benefiting from the expectations of interest rate cuts in December. The latest monetary policy meeting is scheduled for the 9th-10th of next month, and currently, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is about 80%. Therefore, whether it is the U.S. stock market, gold, or the cryptocurrency sector, prices have experienced varying degrees of rebound.
If we look at the prices of U.S. stocks and gold, we will actually find that both are in a high-level consolidation phase and have not shown a significant decline. Instead, the cryptocurrency sector has led the decline of global assets this time. However, thinking from another perspective, since other assets are not in a bear market but are continuing to follow the rhythm, this decline in the cryptocurrency sector may be a good opportunity? If there is indeed a major market movement later, one can jump higher after a deep squat. Moreover, this wave has experienced a crash on 1011 and subsequent large declines, including the explosion of some stablecoin projects, which means the effect of deleveraging is significant.

November 25, 2025
The market has undergone another significant rebound, especially Ethereum, which has seen a prominent rebound, with the highest price nearing $3000. Although looking at the daily chart, this price trend remains quite ugly, the recent performance over the past few days is still commendable given the recent weakness, especially since today is Tuesday, which means the institutional selling phase has come to an end.
Additionally, today I also saw an analysis that suggests the sudden large transfers of coins to exchanges by ETF institutions like BlackRock indicate that users' ETF selling (dumping) has come to an end. This is because only when users sell their ETFs will redemptions occur. At the same time that users sell their ETFs, market makers have already sold the coins through hedge accounts and will then go for redemption. In short, the sharp decline last week was indeed due to large sell-offs by institutions and ETF users, which corresponded to a significant drop in trading volume, but as of today, this wave of selling pressure has come to a conclusion.

November 24, 2025
The market withstood Monday's daytime test for now, and has seen a slight rebound compared to yesterday. Bitcoin and Ethereum, in particular, haven't broken down further, making a sudden plunge tonight less likely. In retrospect, weekend purchases may have secured shares at a temporary bottom. However, current prices are still significantly lower than before, and a small rebound isn't something to be overly excited about.
Besides the price stabilization, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has recently fallen back to a normal range, having previously broken through 1.001. If this indicator holds true, then this downward trend will come to an end. Why did the rise in the USDC exchange rate cause the price to fall? Mainly because dumping and withdrawing funds is commonly done in USDC, especially by compliant institutions like BlackRock. Therefore, the return of the exchange rate to positive territory at least indicates that the recent large-scale redemptions have been completed.

November 22, 2025
The market has temporarily stabilized. To be honest, the speed of the recent decline has been too fast. Since the big coin broke through the previous high of 70,000, it has maintained a low volatility high-level fluctuation. This is the first time such a huge bearish candle has appeared. As for Ethereum and other mainstream altcoins, there is a feeling of being numb to the decline. At this point, I can only be thankful that I gradually reduced my position when prices were high, leaving 40-50% of my funds. To be honest, this market has not really stabilized, and the probability of 80,000 serving as a support level is also quite low, but I have still chosen to buy some first.

November 21, 2025
The market has dropped unexpectedly. From yesterday to today, Ethereum has fallen by another 10 points, and Bitcoin has completely broken below the 90,000 support level, hitting a low of 82,500. Although this price is within expectations, it was absolutely unimaginable a month ago. However, I also mentioned yesterday that the speed of the market's decline will slow down. The significant drop in the U.S. stock market last night did not lead to a large decline in the crypto market; instead, today's drop seems to indicate that there are still people in the crypto market selling off.
The main force behind the selling includes not only the big whales in the crypto market but also some U.S. companies and fund companies that buy cryptocurrencies. The cryptocurrencies held by U.S. companies will inevitably reflect the pressure on stock prices after the price is under pressure. To account for shareholders, they will be forced to sell their holdings. Fund companies correspond to secondary players, and for them, it is not like crypto market users who can buy at the bottom infinitely. Many are institutional funds that must stop losses once risk control is triggered.

November 20, 2025
The market is still at a new low. From yesterday's situation, Bitcoin almost broke through the technical support at 90,000. In fact, from a broader trend perspective, it is now heading towards a bear market. The only hope is that it can hold at this 90,000 position and form a rebound. If there is really a rebound, it would actually be a good opportunity for most people to reduce their positions. Of course, I mentioned before that reducing positions at highs was a good idea when Ethereum broke through 3,500.
On the macro front, the current funding situation is not as pessimistic and desperate as it seems. The U.S. stock market has indeed experienced several weeks of decline, but there has not yet been a collapse trend. However, over here, we seem to be struggling to hold our ground, which is truly perplexing. According to the logic of this round of market trends, altcoins have not shown any crazy surges, and the funds driving the rise come from traditional financial markets like Wall Street. Thus, they should not deviate from the trend of mainstream assets, including U.S. stocks and gold.

November 19, 2025
Looking at the market trends and related data over the past few days, especially the funding rates which have shown many negative values, from this perspective, the recent overselling is quite severe. Of course, with such poor price performance, we can only expect a decent short-term rebound at most, but from the funding rates, this price is not at the bottom, and there isn't much room for further declines. Another point is that the fear and greed index has dropped to single digits. Although the accuracy of this data in the current bull market has greatly decreased, it can still be seen that the market's fear sentiment is still very severe.

November 18, 2025
Ethereum has officially fallen below 3000, and Bitcoin is just one bearish dip away from the 90,000 support. To be honest, this decline is a bit fast; I haven't even recovered yet, as if just the other day I was excited about Ethereum nearing a breakthrough of 5000. The highest price of Bitcoin was 126000, and the drop from this position has exceeded 30%, which is also the critical defense level for a technical bear market. If it effectively breaks down, then the bear market will be confirmed. Of course, some may think that even if we judge a bear market is forming now, it is already too late. This is indeed the case; we cannot judge a reversal during an upward trend. This is why I have always emphasized that when the market is in FOMO, one should reduce positions in batches, as the transition between bull and bear markets is not a single point in time but a period.

November 17, 2025
The market has tried to press down again, with Ethereum hitting a low of $3004, almost breaking below $3000, another round number, which currently seems to have some support. Subsequently, the market began to rebound, and Ethereum rose to $3200, while Bitcoin returned to $95000. However, it must be said that the market has still not escaped the bottom range. If there is no decent rebound coming up next, it will continue to fall.
Generally speaking, the support points during a downtrend must rely on the dense chip area for early judgment, and we must wait for the market to unfold to know. The pressure points for upward movements are the same. Looking at the current market trend, Bitcoin has not formed any obvious support at any point, which is a bad signal. If it continues to trend downwards, breaking below 90,000 will be difficult. In fact, the market urgently needs a bullish candlestick to recover, as this is a very critical period, and it is basically heading towards a bear market transition. I just want to wait for a clearer signal.

2025年11月16日
Happy weekend, the market has stabilized in the short term, but the strength of this rebound is not very reassuring. It's worth mentioning that weekends are typically a time of poor liquidity, so it is quite rare for the market to remain stable. However, this round of selling is related to the decline of the US stock market. Considering the weak rebound in the past two days, the real test will have to wait until Monday when the US stock market opens.
If we only consider from the emotional perspective, last week's sharp decline has already reached a temporary bottom, and the probability of a short-term rebound is quite high. However, even with a rebound, I do not believe the market will rise to a very high position; for the next one to two months, it will basically be a repeated fluctuation with a downward trend, which is also the most common scenario for the year-end market.