November 19, 2025
Looking at the market trends and related data over the past few days, especially the funding rates which have shown many negative values, from this perspective, the recent overselling is quite severe. Of course, with such poor price performance, we can only expect a decent short-term rebound at most, but from the funding rates, this price is not at the bottom, and there isn't much room for further declines. Another point is that the fear and greed index has dropped to single digits. Although the accuracy of this data in the current bull market has greatly decreased, it can still be seen that the market's fear sentiment is still very severe.
Additionally, there is a potential huge selling pressure for Bitcoin recently, as the UK government has seized a large amount of Bitcoin. Previously, when the German government sold coins, it caused short-term negative effects on the market. If this BTC is dumped into the market, considering the current liquidity is relatively poor, the actual impact would be greater than last time. According to media reports, there are a total of 61,000 Bitcoins, with a total value exceeding $5 billion, but there has been no formal sale announcement yet, only some rumors in the market looking for buyers.
Regardless of how it is, the current price is still relatively attractive compared to a few months ago, with BTC down 30%, and Ethereum close to halving compared to its peak. The decline in altcoins is even more pronounced. Just from the extent of the decline, it definitely cannot be considered a bull market now, and one could even say it has already stepped halfway into a bear market. From a trend perspective, there are no obvious bottom oscillation signals, so I do not recommend making large positions to catch the bottom right now. However, considering the strength of the pullback, it is feasible to buy some appropriately. I am continuing to use grid trading to acquire some, expecting that if it drops again, my total position will reach 70%.
Finally, as the year-end approaches, apart from the need for fund liquidations, our control measures are also being strengthened. Recently, the risk control on VX has increased significantly; my two accounts have not been participating in group chats much and have been restricted, which is quite troublesome. Therefore, it is almost impossible to expect some off-market funds to enter the market to rescue it in the coming months. After all, the paths have all been locked, and the foreigners are also dumping. Thus, I still don't think the market in the coming months will be optimistic. If there is a decent short-term rebound, I will consider selling some, and I will synchronize this with everyone then.
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