Currently, Bitcoin has formed a core support area around $117,000 that the market is focused on. The turnover of chips here is extremely concentrated, reflecting the fierce competition between bulls and bears. If this level is broken, it means that the bearish forces are stronger in the short term, but this does not mean that the upward trend will come to an abrupt halt.
It should be noted that the support levels in the chip structure are different from traditional technical analysis. They can be broken, and the process of breaking often represents a stage where the market re-establishes consensus within a new range. The more sufficient the turnover, the higher the overall holding cost will be, which is beneficial for the healthy operation of prices in the long run.
Below $117,000, the key position that truly determines the trend is at $112,000. This position not only corresponds to the verification area of the URPD 'dual anchor structure' but also represents the average cost of short-term holders of Bitcoin over the past three months. Once broken, a large amount of newly entering funds will shift from profit to loss, which will evidently impact market sentiment.
From the past market observations, since October 2023, every time it breaks below this 'short-term holder cost line', Bitcoin's subsequent movements often appear hesitant or even weak. However, this line has also played a 'support' role multiple times during adjustments, helping the market to regain upward momentum.
(Figure 1)
Ultimately, the market's sustained strength requires new funds to continuously enter, and the enthusiasm of new funds depends on whether they can quickly obtain profits. If situations of 'buying leads to losses' occur frequently, both retail and institutional investors will choose to temporarily wait and see, making it difficult for the market to continue smoothly.
Therefore, the core observation point at this stage is whether $117,000 can continue to play its role, and whether $112,000 can hold. Once this line is confirmed as support, market confidence will be strengthened; conversely, it may enter a period of volatility or even weakness.
