On a macro level, data from CME's 'Fed Watch' shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the September meeting is only 13.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 86.1%. Looking ahead to October, market expectations are more dispersed: the probability of maintaining rates is 6.5%, and the probabilities of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points and 50 basis points are 47.5% and 46%, respectively.
Market attention is focused on the Jackson Hole annual meeting this Friday evening, where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a significant speech. Recent inflation data has exceeded expectations, leading some traders to lower their expectations for the rate cut, but they still generally believe that a rate cut in September has become a prevailing trend. Ian Lingen, head of interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, warns that the biggest risk facing the U.S. Treasury market is that Powell may not align with market expectations and instead release hawkish signals.
In the options market, bold bets are also visible. Approximately 325,000 option contracts (with an investment of about $10 million) are betting on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points in September. If this comes true, the profit potential could reach $100 million. Current pricing shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains around 80%.
On the regulatory front, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman recently stated that Fed staff should be allowed to moderately hold crypto assets to better understand the operation of related products. This is interpreted as a signal of a gradually friendly attitude from regulators.
Meanwhile, corporate actions in the crypto market are frequent. Nasdaq-listed company KindlyMD, Inc. acquired 5,743.91 BTC through its subsidiary, bringing its total holdings to 5,764.91 BTC, with an investment of approximately $679 million. Another Nasdaq-listed company, SharpLink Gaming, disclosed that it added 143,593 ETH last week, increasing its total holdings to 740,760 ETH, and has accumulated 1,388 ETH staking rewards since launching its treasury strategy.
On-chain data indicates that the Bitcoin turnover rate has declined. Notably, players with costs in the $95,000 range have begun to show signs of turnover.
URPD data shows that 1.627 million bitcoins are stacked in the $100,500 - $107,000 range; 1.582 million bitcoins are stacked in the $93,500 - $98,500 range.
In summary, Bitcoin may experience a short-term rebound from overselling, but the rebound peak may be limited, and it may still undergo a secondary bottoming process to effectively stabilize. The vicinity of $112,000 is expected to remain a key support level.
